Gallup October 27,2000: Bush 53% Gore 39%

[Warren DeMontague]

Okay. Edited because I don't like freaking people out.

Let's just put Gallup, with their quote-historical accuracy at predicting the winner of the popular vote-unquote in perspective, here....



http://edition.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/10/27/tracking.poll/

This is a gallup poll--- from October 27, 2000:


Bush 53%
Gore 39%
Nader 4%
Buchanan 1%

"While not a prediction of the voters' choice in November, Friday's results show Bush garnering 52 percent of the vote and Gore drawing 39 percent. The survey of 851 likely voters was conducted October 24-26 and has a 3.5 percentage point margin of error.

A CNN/Time poll also released today gives Bush a 49 percent to 43 percent edge over Gore, which is statistically in agreement with today's CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll, given the polls' margin of sampling error."


***

So they eventually stole it anyway, even though we won, but we almost overwhelmed them with numbers and dedication. I don't know about you, but I'm sure as f*$% more motivated now than I was four years ago; and I was pretty motivated back then. I think what it comes down to is not letting the media drown out the very important stories between now and election day; namely, it was Bush who put his foot in his mouth at the last debate, not Kerry, when he said that dumb-ass lie about "exaggerations"... We've got troops refusing to do suicide missions in an increasingly deadly Iraq disaster- we've got a country and an economy falling apart, seniors and at risk people with no flu vaccinations while the administration is almost defiantly asleep at the switch... Several members of Bush's administration potentially committed a felony by endangering the life of a CIA agent; actions which would have the right howling "treason" under Clinton-- and, we are finding out more daily about how prisoners at Gitmo were mistreated just like prisoners at Abu Ghraib; making the "few bad apples" argument a near-certain impossibility. Meanwhile, Sy Hersh knows about the explosive Abu Ghraib evidence we didn't see, including evidence that a fourteen year old boy was sodomized on tape, kids were tortured in front of parents, etc. etc... Doubtful this stuff will come to light this late in the game but I think persistent pressure on the Media to cover REAL STORIES instead of Kerry telling people who already knew that Mary Cheney is a Lesbian may make some difference. There is evidence that some in the media, a few at least, are listening.

Most important thing? Eyes on the prize. If we had fought back half as hard as we're fighting now, they never would have been able to steal the thing four years ago. Screw the polls. They're crap.

[Mojambo]

1. You sir, are not a kind man.

Not that a Gallup result should mean much of anything

[Warren DeMontague]

3. They don't, that's the point. If they had Bush over Gore by 13%....

Then that means Kerry must really be up, by, what-- 6%?

[AndyTiedye]

2. !*!@#$##*@!! DON'T DO THAT!!!!!!!!!!!

You scared the shit out of me. :scared:

[Warren DeMontague]

4. Oh, All Right.

hold on.

[Guaranteed]

5. Now THAT is comforting. THANK YOU.

You ROCK. :)

[bluestateguy]

6. I remember when that poll came out

I thought I was going to vomit all over the computer screen the afternoon it came out. Panzy Boy Drudge made a real big fuss over it too, with all the red sirens and "Developing" and "Breaking" crap.

Gallup's final poll was a spread of +2 for Bush, but their polls bounced around all over the place in 2000.

[izzie]

7. I check BBC and it has 3 on and they both have the same percent.

For get the names but they are regular places. It is just easy as I look at BBC news every day. I have also read that these polls do not call the cell phone and since I am the only person that I knew that does not have one it must be an odd way to do all the people.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Maybe Gallup should specialize in Pat Buchanon

One percent, that was pretty close, wasn't it?

Except in Palm Beach County, of course.

[MatrixEscape]

9. Let's also keep in mind ...

Bush has helped us this time around. For Bush vs. Gore, the Sleeping Giant was dormant and still apathetic. Awww, some of us still thought, lessor of two evils. Business as usual, perhaps?

Oh, were we WRONG! None of us could ever imagine that such a pathetic human being, (is he?) could rise to power that easily in these United States.

Now that we know what a total failure Dubya is and what a serious threat he is to everyone and everything in America and around the Globe, that is going to be a very strong factor.

Can't you feel it?

[GOPBasher]

10. How can Gallup be so unabashedly Republican biased?

14% Bush lead on October 27, huh? Yeah, and I have a 35% lead on my Republican congressman, Jim Walsh, even though I'm not running.

[intheflow]

11. Thanks for the reality check!

Man, if Gore was polling 39% and got over 50% of the popular vote, that bodes incredibly well for Kerry polling at 47% or higher.

Bye bye Chimpy.

[enough]

12. I love that graphic.

Makes the data look so REAL, so RELIABLE. I think we should pin that chart to the top of the DU page for the next two weeks, just to keep all these polls in perspective.

[PA Democrat]

13. The guy from Gallup was on CNN this morning claiming Republicans

are more enthusiastic about this election. They cited statistics putting Republicans ahead of Dems in enthusiasm 77% to 65%.

I see the complete opposite of this in my dealings with Democrats. I myself am volunteering for the Kerry campaign. I have voted in the past 7 presidential elections, but this is the first time I've ever volunteered for a presidential candidate. I cannot tell you how many fellow Kerry volunteers have similar stories.

Conversely, the local Republican party has been running classified ads to hire people to do canvassing.

I just don't believe Gallup. They have a bad track record, and their "enthusiasm" stats don't jive with what I am seeing here in PA.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/poll.sunday/index.html

[cthrumatrix]

15. RW media - up is down... dems should not vote..corporations rule...

[Warren DeMontague]

23. Maybe they confuse "enthusiasm" with

..."Not having their voter registration forms torn up"

[sisenor]

14. Thanks for putting things in perspective.

And lots of polls have them neck and neck (including today's Reuters poll, which had Kerry making gains on Bush in the past three days).

CNN must have conducted its poll as an exit survey after yesterday's church services in red-neck counties.

[mopinko]

16. a copy of this graphic is

on the beat bush mobile. laying the groundwork for the theft, they are, with these phony freakin polls.

[wryter2000]

17. Thank you!

I'm bookmarking this to look at over and over.

Kerry in a landslide!

[milkyway]

18. Thanks for the great find. Kerry will win easily.

[pinkpops]

19. Let me check for understanding:

(1) As we all know, Al Gore won the popular vote in 2000.

(2) The chart you posted (from 2000) indicates that if the poll had been correct, Bush would have won the popular vote by a substantial margin.

(3) Given this, there is no reason to think that Gallup is a good predictor of the popular vote.

Correct?

[Mr_Spock]

20. Gallup is an utter disgrace - they should be thrown in jail for lying

and electioneering. What a disgrace these ass holes are.

[Warren DeMontague]

22. Pretty Much.

Actually, from that poll, I would say there's no reason to put any credence in Gallup's methodologies, AT ALL.

The reason I threw in the thing about the popular vote; aside from the obvious known fact that Gore got a half a million votes more than Bush, was this recent quote from Frank Newport at Gallup, saying their poll results have been "exceedingly accurate election after election when we look at who actually wins the popular vote."

[Carl Lloyd]

21. Rasmussen poll has Kerry pulling into a tie!!

Have you seen today's Rasmussen Reports poll?

Kerry pulls into a 47% tie with Bush...the first time they have been tied in weeks!

www.Rasmussenreports.com

Kerry is gonna win! Get out the vote!!!!!!

Don't be fooled by Fox and their followers in the media.

[obiwan]

32. Today's Zogby shows 45-45... I want to see the Gallup internals.

The Zogby Battleground gives Kerry over 300 EV's.

Welcome to Fear Central!

[Critical Thinker]

24. important development on electoral-vote.com

Check out the latest projection at http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct18p.html

In a sentence, the data shows Kerry consolidating a lead over Bush. This website now projects vote totals on Nov 2 as follows:

Kerry 318
Bush 220

[sisenor]

25. can that be?

Kerry winning Arkansas?
And New Mexico 99% for Bush?

I'll take all those electoral votes for Kerry, but I was surprised to see the map...

[Critical Thinker]

26. take all polling data with a grain of salt, but

this particular map represents an amalgam of several polls and some mathematical extrapolation. The process examines 30 days of historical data from several sources, identifies trends, and extrapolates those trends out to the Nov 2 election date.

Considering that the data window is only 30 days wide, the local trends will have been heavily influenced by the post-debate bounce for Kerry - hence the projection is probably a tad too heavily weighted towards Blue. But in any case, it's nice to see some positive news regarding polling data.

[lizzie]

27. I need you all for therapy!

This gives me some hope! I know there will be a big surprise turnout of new voters (IF those that were enthusiastic enough to register actually get out and vote!!!) but every day when I hear the crap on CNN I get so depressed. I'm so upset I'm afraid I'll croak from a stroke or heart attack, can't die before I vote!!! I HATE Bush and all he has done. I can't even stand to look at him! My hubby and I aren't even speaking because I can't put it into perspective and keep yelling at the TV! I've never been so involved either, I've been writing lots of letters to the editor, talking to people when I can (I live in the forest so when I can get to town and Demo Headquarters in the 2 nearest cities, 20 & 50 miles away.) I'm trying to calm down by knowing I'm not the only one, that other people like you good folks are outraged too, that the campaign big wigs are HOPEFULLY doing the right things! I think they really screwed up in 2 places. Not explaining this "87 billion vote" better, and not kicking the Swift Boat butts immediately! Thanks for being out there for me to lean on!
Kerry in a landslide if there is any justice in this world!!!!

[Mike L]

28. Thanks for the link.

It's "hard work" being a whore.

[bigtree]

29. World Of Reality!

:beer:

[Carni]

30. Damn that is amazing!

I didn't recall what the poll numbers were then!

This has got to be good news in light of how Gore kicked bush's ass in sheer numbers.

[TheDonkey]

31. thanks for this historical look, Democrats are excited!

and conservatives are also excited. We are going to have to WANT this win.

[Natesta]

33. Now wait a minute...

Before folks go praising Rasmussen
They had Bush up by 9 on Gore on the last election day!

These polls are garbage.

Portrait of America Tracking (Nov. 4-6) 2000
Margin of error +/- 1.6%

Bush 49%
Gore 40%
Buchanan 1%
Nader 4%
Browne 1%
Phillips <1%
Hagelin<1%

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

34. I like your posting this. Puts the polls, ESP Gallup, in perspective, eh?

[Ksec]

35. And he lost by a few hundred votes. Thats incredible.

[SamFarrell]

36. Gallup is trying to create bandwagon effect for Bush

Gallup has been skewing its polls toward Bush by sampling 5% - 8% more Republicans than Democrats, despite the fact that in no modern presidential election have more Republicans voted than Democrats. They're inflating Bush's numbers because people want to vote on the side that ends up winning. Dishonest polls like this can sway enough votes to decide an election. Their influence probably prevented Gore from winning enough of a margin to put the last election beyond dispute. They can also depress Democratic efforts in the last couple of weeks. Volunteers who think it's hopeless don't keep working. Write to your local papers, go onto every Web forum you can, and let people know what Gallup is doing. More here: http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002806.html