Today's Zogby Statement (poll 45-45)

[Tesibria]

First - for those thinking that Zogby wants Bush to win, see http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x912711 -- Zogby publicly predicted a KERRY WIN on Friday. He posted this prediction (along with criticism of Bush) on his site late last night.
:kick:

Now -- to the story: https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/products.dbm

"To bring Ronald Reagan into this picture: 'There they go again’. Kerry had a good day on Sunday. If I were to factor in the leaners in the 3-day track, it would be Kerry 47.2% to Bush 46.6%. I’m not sure it’s wise to put leaners in the equation at this point in the campaign because it is artificial -- but that is how close all of this is proving to be.

"This is, as I have said before, the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead.

"Kerry is back to consolidating his support among Democrats, 82%-11%, and now holds a 44%-37% lead among Independents (who still have 14% undecided).
...
"Kerry now has a 4 point lead among Catholics (Gore won this group by 5 in 2000). There is a continued lack of evidence that Bush is making any headway among Jewish voters (a small sub-sample, but the average of all days of polling throughout the year and in this round does not reveal
any Bush progress).

"Interestingly, there is no likeability gap. Both men have near identical ratings.”

Zogby International conducted interviews of 1211 likely voters chosen at random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from October 15 through October 17, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race, religion, gender, to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

=====
Details:
President Bush’s favorable rating has dropped a point from 55% to 54%. His disapproval numbers have risen from 43% to 45%. Senator Kerry’s ratings continue to hold at 53% favorable and 45% unfavorable-- where they have been for several days. ...

The President’s overall job performance rating dropped 2 points from a day ago. (Note: Now 45% approve, 55% disapprove.)

The right track/wrong track numbers are virtually unchanged from yesterday. (45%) continue to say the country is headed the right way, while 48% say the country is headed on the wrong track.

Mr. Bush’s re-elect numbers slipped a bit overnight, with support for his re-election holding steady at 46% and those calling for someone new increasing by a point , for a one-point shift overall, with 4% still unsure.

[shawmut]

1. A lot of good news in there

:thumbsup:

[Tesibria]

3. yes !!!

makes me smile this Monday morning :)

[izzie]

2. I still think these do not count unless you vote for the poll;

People will say anything, and I really never get the feel for who will win. I think to my self Kerry will win as he is a thinking man and that is what we need but then I think I hear of so many people who just vote on faith, My President right or wrong, God talks to him, that Bush will win. It is hard to figure we would go back to voting for a man who thinks God put him their. It is like going backward 300 years. Then the Middle East is run on the same thinking. Who knows.

[Fluffdaddy]

4. I don't know if I want my Pollsters Pulling for an canadate...........

Just the Facts maam...........That's all I want from a Pollsters

[Lerkfish]

6. but as we've found, they already pull for a candidate.....

so the horse has left the barn, sorry.

[flpoljunkie]

5. Thanks for sharing. Bush's 45% job approval is not good news for Bush!

Some great news for Kerry in both likeability and favorability. Why don't you send this to CNN at [e-mail] and/or [e-mail] or [e-mail]

They could use a counterpoint to the Gallup's gamed polling.

[unfrigginreal]

7. It sure is LOOKING GOOD!

I think Zogby just said yesterday that Kerry needed to win the Catholic vote. Nice to see him take the lead with that subgroup.

Thanks again! :thumbsup:

[helpisontheway]

8. Oh I almost did not check the numbers today

because they have been so down lately and I felt bad. THANK GOODNESS they are improving for Kerry. How anyone could think that idiot in the White House would be a better president is beyond comprehension.

Oh and as I was putting the channel on cartoon network for my son I noticed the asshole from Gallup in front of some graphs pointing at them. I did not even stop to listen though because it would have pissed me off.


Anyway, CSPAN had Chuck Todd on there talking about various state to state numbers and he pointed out that Kerry was ahead in many of the battleground states where this will be won. I think there was like 4 pt electoral difference between Kerry and Bush with Bush leading. However, Kerry was leading in the battleground states that Bush needs to get to 270. I hope that Sinclair crap does not knock Kerry down in the battleground states.....Hopefully, the Kerry campaign has something they can use to blunt the damage that that special can do. They have had weeks notice so hopefully they have something they can throw out there....

[bigtree]

9. Thanks for posting

I can sleep now.