Out Is In...Why New Jersey's In Play (Bizzarro World View)

[KharmaTrain]

Letme get this straight from the AEI's Schneider's piehole...

The people of New Jersey find national security as the #1 issue and that's why their Gallup poll shows the race even (translation: Trending Bunnypants fast). The point was made that New Jersey lost the second most people on 9/11 and thus this plays big in the state.

(returning to reality)...

Now, if that were the case, could Mr. Schneider explain why Mr. Bunnypants is losing so badly...double digits in New York and Connecticutt...the states that lost the most and third most number of their citizens that day?

Not once as the word "McGreevey" mentioned, but it doesn't have to be...those skids were greased for the past week...the wingnuts know exactly what state their boy is invading today and the subliminal gay baiting, now joined by race baiting of this desperate regime continues.

Maybe someone can explain where the disconnect is between New York...especially the burroughs that surely are going to go Kerry with margins of 70% (I know, not Staten Island) and that they don't care about security as much as those folks in New Jersey.

[PretzelWarrior]

1. Bushies are just making one last attempt in Jersey

it's not as close as people are letting on, and if this visit gets some numbers trending the right way they might spend $$$ on ad buys (which mostly means buying in Philly and NYC where they have no hope).

We'll see, but I'm calling NJ for Kerry.

[JUS]

2. remember all the polls in 2000 that had * tied in California?

well * had is ass handed to him in California in 2000...

[displacedtexan]

9. Head Fake Then; Head Fake Now.

When Bush* loses again, they can blame a failed campaign strategy in the wrong states.

[TomClash]

3. We're not losing New Jersey - trust me nt

[AndyTiedye]

17. Can they Steal New Jersey?

          We Make Democracy DIE

[undergroundrailroad]

4. Check this link out:

http://www.mydd.com/popup.html

[KharmaTrain]

8. I Like That One!!

Looks like it's showing the Zogby tracking info...and that's getting a bit old, but looks like the map I/we've been looking at.

I posted to point out the desperation that's going on now. I see two phases happening. First...to depress us...hope in the remain weeks somehow we'll pull out knives and the gays will go after the blacks will go after the feminists will go after the Jews will go after and so on. Class warfare and wedge issues is what they built this campaign on and they're more defiant than ever.

After they see we're not laying down, then we'll see fear cards. I sure hope they're not so wreckless to give the tin foil hatters here a self-fulfilled prophesy (if you can read between my words), but it surely will be a move to keep their hive from slintering further. The more strident the calls that if Kerry is elected we'll get attacked or oil will go to 3 dollar a gallon or whatever major fear you want to instill in the right wing, it will show how far this election is slipping away from the manchild.

I also view this foolish daytrip as a diversion...creating a news cycle non-story to prevent more serious news from dominating the coverage.

[undergroundrailroad]

16. I loved your post.

Thanks for the response.

Undergroundrailroad :hi:

[emulatorloo]

5. Rove Ploy - for "bandwagon effect" - see Josh Marshall and 2000

Pure Rove Political Theater - One last show

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/week_2004_10_17.php#003700

<snip>

To understand the president's trip to New Jersey and much of what's happening now in the campaign, I -- with apologies -- refer folks back to TPM's second ever post from November 13th, 2000, on Rove, his 'band-wagon' theory, and the Bush White House confidence game. This is very, very similar.

-- Josh Marshall

<snip>

[Cooley Hurd]

10. Josh nailed it - Rove's "confidence" game...

From TPM:

<snip>
The Bush campaign was following a strategy based on Rove's 'band wagon' theory of election finishes. According to Rove, toward the end of an election voters look to see who's winning and often decide to vote for that candidate. So projecting an image of confidence may be even more important than whether the polls actually give any cause for optimism. You just need to look like you're winning, and the voters will take it from there. At least that's Rove's theory.

That's why in the week before the election Rove was telling reporters that Bush was going to win by 6%-7% of the vote and had him going to states like New Jersey and California, ones he hadn't a prayer of winning. As we now know, Bush not only didn't win big, he didn't win at all -- at least in the popular vote. Bush would have done a lot better focusing on Florida and not taking that victory lap in the final days.

After the election it seems like they did the same thing over again. The Bush plan -- which I gaurentee you came from Rove -- was to just look like you're the president-elect and everyone will believe you. It was just a post-election of Rove's confidence game.
</snip>

[Parche]

6. NJ

My Aunt lives in NJ and she is voting for Kerry



NJ was solid Democrat last time, how in the hell is it in play?

[PretzelWarrior]

7. It's not in play. COLORADO is in Play. YEEHHAAWW!

bite me, Bush.

[diplomats]

11. NJ is not in play. Schneider is parroting Rove's talking points

Gallup's state polls are as bad as their national polls. Rove did this in 2000 - he had Bush campaign in California to create the perception Bush was so far ahead he could afford to campaign in a solid blue state. It was nothing more than an attempt to discourage turnout among Dems by making them think Bush was a shoo-in. It was complete bullshit. This is 2000 all over again and Schneider is carrying Rove's water.

[Historic NY]

13. Nj isn't going anywhere

Went to Vote for change concert last wed in Meadowlands, Bruce Springsteen made it perfectly clear NJ was in Kerry's corner. A total sold out crowd.

[newyawker99]

20. Hi Historic NY!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[tjdee]

12. This is total bullshit, this "NJ is in play" bullshit.

That's the best I can say about it.

One of the reasons I stay here is because I know that everyone here is not a political moron. I'd even say most of Republicans here aren't wacko wingies like some of the ones elsewhere.

No one's going to magically kiss Smirk McSmirky's behind because he comes and smirks at us for an hour.

[Gaffey Duck]

14. It's somewhat possible...

McGreevey.

'nuff said

[tjdee]

15. New Jerseyans can chew gum and walk at the same time....

McGreevey has not one thing to do with Bush/Kerry.

Not one tiny thing.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

18. If NJ is in play, so is Massachusetts

so, it's pure horseshit.

[Doosh]

19. the NJ polls were close in 2000, Gore crushed him

don't worry, it's a little erratic and hard to poll, but NJ will come in strong for John Kerry, then at about noon on election day when the early returns come in, we'll all be wondering why we were worrying in the first place. NJ is safe Kerry.

the latest RCP average is Bush 44 Kerry 49.2, and that's being generous to Bush.

of the last 6 nj polls

Kerry +9
Kerry +6
Kerry +3
Kerry +5
Kerry +8

one outlier which shows them tied

Bush is wasting his time.