Polls can't tell us a thing about --turnout-- can they ?

[bush equals idiot]

I have yet to hear anyone suggest that we're not clobbering reeps two or three to one, in registering new voters. I heard Craig Crawford say, he was stunned that in Florida alone, there were about a million new voters registered.."and most of them are democrat."

The polls are virtually useless to pick that up aren't they, as far as actual turnout in new votes?

So the democrat tsunami will only really show up on Nov 2nd.

[izzie]

1. I guess that is why I just read polls for fun.

I read that the pop is not the same, they do not use cell phones, and who knows who tells the truth.

[Stuckinthebush]

2. I'll make a bet

I bet that the final polls from Zogby and Rasmussen will be extremely close to the actual results of the election. Hell, throw in Gallup with that.

[bush equals idiot]

4. Well Zogby aced it last year.

But how can they know how many new voters there's going to be?

I think our numbers are very large. That's why the freeps are crapping their diapers.

[hippiegranny]

3. I believe you are correct

Additionally, when the polls name their respondents as "likely voters", they use models based on voting data from 2000 and they sample percentages based on voter turnout from that election. That is why they are always oversampling pubs, something like 38%-33%. Even though I think they're setting people up for a fall, I suppose the psychology of polling this way is to discourage dems from voting and also to keep the race looking tight for better ratings. Pollsters are obviously whoring for the BushBastards.

[Zerovoltz]

5. The polls are likely correct

Some of you people here think everything is a conspiracy..the canidates and parties also do polling, and I would bet what they see is similar to what zogby etc has.....anyhow, your charge that the polls are whoring for one guy or the other is of base. They are in business to make money. Their business is to be right about the election. It would be bad business if the Dems came out and blew the polls completely off kilter on election day. Zogby, Rasmussin, Gallup..aint havin none of that. I too will also bet that the polls will be pretty much dead on.

[newyawker99]

7. Hi Zerovoltz!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[geniph]

6. Gallup was way the hell off in 2000

I suspect they'll be off even more this year.