Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Oct. 18

[SCRUBDASHRUB]

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 257 Bush 247

[GeorgeBushytail]

1. Love that Blue!

[HawkerHurricane]

2. We WILL win Florida and Iowa

And probably Ohio and New Mexico, too.
And also one of Missouri, Arkansas or Virginia.

[Goldmund]

3. So...

Florida OR Ohio, and we win.

Or, if neither of those pan out, Colorado and either Iowa or New Mexico, we win.

Pretty good, pretty good.

[shockingelk]

4. not a prediction!

Just the most recent polls.

The prediction is here: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct18p.html

And the methodology is flawed because it comes up with stuff like Kerry winning VA by 11 percentage points:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/virginia.html

And Kerry losing NM by 99 percentage points: http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/new-mexico.html