Two Latest Polls for FLorida and Pennsylvania, Kerry leads.

[Nicholas_J]

Survey USA: FL: Kerry + 1

Kerry (D) 50%
Bush (R) 49%

PA: Kerry + 6 |

Kerry (D) 51%
Bush (R) 45%


http://www.surveyamerica.com/currentelectionpolls.html

[deadparrot]

1. Do we know how reliable they are?

[Eurobabe]

4. likely voters, draw your own conclusions

[fujiyama]

2. I really like the PA numbers

The FL numbers are also good, though I wish the lead was more substantive. The state is very competetive...and it looks like it's goin to be a hell of a mess again this year in that state.

I'd like to add, that SUSA also released numbers for NC showing it surprisingly close still, with Bush 50-47 and Arkansas showing Bush 51-46.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

3. I Looked At The Survey USA Internals

they oversample pukes so it's better for us...

FL has more registered Dems than Pukes...

[Nicholas_J]

5. I dont like either poll

In fact there are only TWO pollsters out of all of them that do not oversample Republicans
and thats Zogby and ARG. ARG samples regularly come up with Democrats at 38 percent and Republicans at 35 percent, and that is not something pre-selected by them, but the general result they get from random phone calls gotten from durectory services and not voters lists.

Zogby comes up regularly with about the same percentages SO that is most likely what will happen on election day because it is the result of months of random samples rather than the predetermined ratios decided by Gallop, Kerry's margin in Florida would be something like 6 percent if you adjust for the oversampling.

Given SUSA's oversampling of Republicans.

If you make the same adjustment for PA forget about it, Kerry in leading in double digits. Which is why Bush has given up on PA.