Pollster says "Ignore the point spread".

[Contrary1]

Bush is done.

"WASHINGTON (Creators Syndicate) -- If anyone tells you that the latest authoritative national poll shows President George W. Bush either running 4 percentage points ahead of or 2 points behind Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, pay him no attention. Ignore the messenger completely...."

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/11/point.spread/index.html

[speedoo]

1. Yeah, baby.

Rove knows this well. Hence their desperate tactics.

It may also explain why they agree to the three debates, plus the one VP debate. They knew they had to move shrub's re-elect up, somehow.

[secular_warrior]

2. Charlie Cook said the same thing

It's called the 50 percent rule: if the incumbent isn't consistenly getting 50 percent or more in the polls, he's in danger. The reason is polls tend to underestimate the challenger's support - most of the undecideds break to the challenger.

[Guaranteed]

3. "The average increase on Election Day in the actual vote...

....for a challenger to a president is 4 percentage points."

[Stephanie]

4. Clinton pollster Skolnick said this as well

Watch the job approval. That's the only number that counts.

If I wanted to place a bet, how would I do that? Atlantic City?

[Awsi Dooger]

8. No, political wagering not legally available in Nevada or Atlantic City

There's something called the Iowa Futures Market. Or you could set up an account with a major offshore sportsbook that deals politics, or an English bookmaking operation like Ladbrokes. A website called TradeSports is mentioned frequently on DU.

Then there's the old fashioned All American way: thru a bookie.

Probably the simplest method is to challenge a Republican who has been mouthing off about Bush's inevitability. But try to get 3/2 odds or thereabouts, the current man-to-man wagering line. You would bet any ratio of 2 to win 3 if you took Kerry. In other words, a $20 bet would bring back a total of $50.

[Guaranteed]

5. Great, great post

and a great article.

[LiberteToujours]

6. Very encouraging

But no reason to stop pounding the message ... I want Kerry UP by five points in the polls on election day and I want him to win by 10! Let's not leave any room for them and their tricks.

[Andromeda]

7. Stick a fork in him, he's done!

:mad: :toast:

Hope he's right!

[T Town Jake]

9. A thread well-worth...

:kick:

...for those in our ranks who still persist in pessimism...

[JohnnyCougar]

10. Doesn't a good ground game give you an extra 3-4 points as well?

Kerry's got that, too!

[DemBones DemBones]

11. Last Friday, Zogby told an audience that Kerry will be our next

president. And I'm pretty sure he meant SOON. (Not 2008.)

[lakemonster11]

12. "they want a president who can walk and chew gum at the same time"

LOL!

:dem: