10/20 ARG: Kerry and Bush Remain Tied Among Likely Voters in New Mexico

[unfrigginreal]

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied among likely voters in New Mexico according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 48% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 46% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 1% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry leads Bush 48% to 47%, with 5% undecided. In August, Kerry was leading Bush 52% to 42% in a two-way race.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in New Mexico. Of the 600 likely voters, 35% are registered as Republicans, 47% are registered as Democrats, and 18% are registered with a minor party or no party. The interviews were conducted October 16 through 18, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/nm/

[Teaser]

1. Bush under 47% everywhere...

as far as the eye can see.

[spotbird]

2. 12% more Democrats polled?

Strange. Are there 12% more Democrats than Republicans in New Mexico? I also wish they would publish the raw numbers.

[lancdem]

3. There are more Dems than Repukes

but 12 percent seems high. However, they have Kerry winning just 77 percent of Dems and losing 16 percent of them to Bush, which I don't believe.

[shivaji]

4. I heard somewhere Bush may get 25% of A-A vote

please tell me its not true! Without 90%+ of African American
vote, Kerry may have problems.

[spotbird]

5. This gay marriage thing is a real winner for Bush in the A_A community. nt

[spotbird]

6. It is easier for me to believe 23% Democratic defection

then it is to believe that 90% of Republicans still support *.

There are a lot of people who remain registered Democrats who never vote D, who knows why. But I think there are some thinking Republicans out there, and it is higher than 10%.