LA Times: Kerry has conceded the entire South except Fla.

[quaoar]

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/2004/la-na-southwest22oct22,1,5078707.story?coll=la-home-headlines

< snip >

Kerry and his aides began the general election pledging to recapture some Southern states -- or at least contest them seriously. His campaign and the Democratic National Committee bought television time in North Carolina, Arkansas, Virginia and Louisiana. And Kerry's selection of Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina as his running mate seemed designed, in part, to broaden the ticket's appeal in the South.

But Kerry and the DNC have not been on the air with ads in North Carolina since July, Louisiana since August and Arkansas and Virginia since early September, according to the ad tracking.

Tad Devine, a senior Kerry adviser, said the campaign is still considering a final push in either Arkansas or North Carolina. But for all practical purposes, analysts say, Kerry appears to have conceded 141 Electoral College votes across the region to Bush, still contesting only the 27 in Florida.

"It's a replay of the 2000 election, where except for Florida the presidential contest wasn't really close in any of the Southern states," said Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta and the author of several books on Southern politics. As his fallback if he falls short in some of the Midwest's swing states, such as Ohio, Iowa and Wisconsin, Kerry increasingly has looked to the Southwest.

[RhodaGrits]

1. My hairdresser's mom in Alabama said everywhere she goes she

sees Kerry sign/bumper stickers and no one she knows is voting for Bush. Maybe the landslide will reach the south too.

[Demfromct]

5. Newsflash

Is this a surprise. We all know why the South has gone GOP. Not news

[Scoopie]

14. I don't know why

Enlighten me.

Or rather blather on about stuff you know nothing about.

Because I'm sure you were about to call us Southerners racist or stupid. Most of us are neither.

[mitchum]

43. BUt much of the GOP support in the south does come from racists...

either hardcore or "the traditional casual racism" of the south.
I am a southerner and I know this to be true.
But you're right, we're not ALL like that :)

[Cha]

2. Suck! I wish we had more time and money

for Virginia, North Carolina..why do those states have to go for stupid?

Is this article true?

[Eric J in MN]

11. If you want to contribute to the Virginia Democratic Party,

you can at:
http://168.144.65.120/index2.asp

and if you want to donate to the North Carolina Democratic Party, you can at:
http://www.ncdp.org/

[Cha]

15. I would love to contribute, Eric..thank

you for the links but this is one tapped out Dem!

[GainesT1958]

12. Not according to Kerry's state (N.C.) coordinator..

Or the local folks--who have connections with the national staff.

It's actually Dub's people who have pulled almost their entire state staff from here, thinking it won..BUT..that's not what the latest polls show, nor the number of Kerry/Edwards bumperstickers show around here--and this (Wilmington) is usually Repub territory!

Me thinks a visit or two to this state may be forthcoming by the national ticket before Election Day!:D

:kick:

BTW--for the North Carolina Democratic Party, that site is:

www.ncdp.org

B-)

[Cha]

17. That would be so freakin' Cool!

B-) Thanks for that bit of encouragement!

[gratefull4u]

64. Here in NC ....

I'm also in the Wilmington area. I don't ever remember seeing so many bumper stickers for a Democrat. Maybe we don't have a chance this time but at we are coming around for the future. I have quite a few K/E yard signs in my neighborhood, a few Ballantine but NO Bush. I know Bush is still spending money here because there is an anti-Kerry commercial on every few minutes, I have to keep changing the channel. Now they have that Elizabeth Dole on against Bowels, I couldn't stand her when she ran against him in 2000, now she is helping that awful Burr.

[diamond14]

53. yes Virginia...we're GOING BLUE....all the way with Kerry !!!!

Virginia lost in 2000 only by 1.5% of the vote....


this time, we have a Democratic Governor MARK WARNER, and Democrats in KEY State and Federal positions....we have a DEMOCRATIC Mayor here in Alexandria Virginia (first BLACK Mayor, ever, Bill Euile).....AND we have a LEAN MEAN MACHINE....we have HUNDREDS of thousands of NEW registered DEMOCRATS for Kerry (immigrants and college students)....

here in Virginia, we've been working 24/7 for KERRY....low keyed, door-to-door, local phone calls, picnics and houseparties for Kerry....

we have "REPUBLICANS for Kerry"
we have "Catholics for JFK"
we have the Military BROTHERS FOR KERRY, getting over 100,000 Military votes for KERRY already.....

we have a LOT of Virginians who are SICK and TIRED of bush*....
we have seniors in total disarray over the lack of flu vaccine...
we have a school system in shambles...

all the BIG papers in BOTH Northern and Southern Virginia have endorsed Kerry...including BIG TIME Navy base in Norfolk today...

AND we have LOTS of money to defeat BUSH....one visit from Kerry raised $1.7 MILLION at the Crystal City Hilton....Kerry and Edward and family have been ALL OVER VIRGINIA....and Kerry Campaign has spent over $80 MILLION in ads here....lately Move-On.org, other special interests, and DNC have bombarded us with GREAT ads for Kerry, and major SLAMS on bush*....

bush* is on his way OUT...

and here in Virginia...we are PROUD to cast our 13 Electorial votes for KERRY....

[Eric J in MN]

3. Bush has conceded almost the enitre Northeast (nt)

nt

[Say_What]

23. and the west--California alone 55 electoral votes to KERRY!!

:bounce:

[charleston1]

69. Don't Forget Washington

[tedoll78]

36. It pisses me off..

when we never hear such things. The northeast and california are about 145 electoral votes that Bush has conceded, but we NEVER hear anoything similar to this article.

For once, I'd love to read an article asking, "Can Bush Win Without the NorthEast?" instead of "Can the Democrat Win Without the South?"

[msongs]

4. white racist christians not voting for Kerry...boo hoo :-( n/t

[Scoopie]

18. And you wonder why...

See... told you so.
You people here are ONCE AGAIN making stereotypical statements you loathe in everything else INSTEAD OF getting your asses down here and helping the 36 to 46 percent in EVERY RED STATE who KNOW THE TRUTH.

Electoral College votes are winner take all - even if the vote is 600,000 Dems to 600,001 Republicans.

Get over your biased selves.

[msongs]

37. umm, ever been to a southern baptist church???

former member of same in abilene tx...their words preaching love, actions demonstrating hate.

Msongs
Riverside CA

[quaoar]

42. Maybe you should have gone down the road to the Methodists

[msongs]

46. nah....got out of texas for CA, land of the fruit and nuts, as my

grandma used to say :-)

Msongs
Riverside CA

PS - always used to wonder why the southern baptists thought only white people would go to heaven.

[PerfectSage]

59. I know why Southern Baptists think only white people go to heaven

Cuz they're insane. They project unconscious aspects of themselves onto: blacks, homosexuals, liberals, muslims, terrorists, etc etc

In a nutshell: They're unconscious of their own unconscious.

B/C No Mo' Years :party::toast:

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

61. I feel for ya Scoopie

I am a westerner and I know what you are up against...fundi churches on every street corner. California has itlittle choke holds too. If it's any consolation I don't think most DUers equate the entire south as racists...Repubs play the race card everywhere..they just had a head start down in the south with Nixon's southern strategy.

[6th Borough]

62. Yes...the "Bible Belt" is more like a Bible Doughnut nowadays. /NT

[Zen Democrat]

81. It's right wing talk radio, I tell you. It's the rightwing liars on radio

All across the nation, people turn on their radios and hear these nonstop lies and they are brainwashed into believing that Democrats are out to rip up the Constitution and fornicate in the churches.

It's brainwashing. And those who don't know better are reeled in like mullets.

[yardwork]

38. That is an offensive comment.

Have you ever actually visited the south? There are a lot of white racist Christians in California, New York, and other supposed Democratic strongholds. It's too bad the electoral college creates an all or nothing situation. Most southern states are won or lost by narrow margins - that means almost half the southern voters voted for Gore in 2000.

Furthermore, NC has a Democrat as a governor, Democrat as a Lieutenant Governor, Democratic majority in the state Senate, Dem-Rep tie in the state House, and a Democratic senator (maybe you heard of him - his name is John Edwards).

Last time I looked California - that bastion of liberalism - had recalled their Democratic governor and elected a Republican actor (again).

[msongs]

48. ummm, the article in question is NOT about CA................

and not much wholesale trying to keep blacks from voting here either.

Msongs
Riverside CA

[gumby]

6. Kerry is such a looser,

I guess I'll quit all pro-Kerry activity and stay home on election day.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. you jest (nt)

[gumby]

31. agitation mostly

my jesting humor is running on empty due to high fuel prices.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. ahhhhhhhhh

that's sad but predictable....


I have been saying that for months...


Even Clinton struggled in the south...

Who knows how he would have ran without Perot...

[Scoopie]

20. Struggled?

He won five Southern states.
What struggle?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

28. Because Clinton Had Perot Siphoning Off Conservative Votes...

Five out of thirteen southern states...

How many did he break fifty percent in?

The south is not fertile ground for Democrats at the presidential level...

There's not a political science professor in the land of any ideological stripe who would dispute that...


The south is so inhospitable to Democrats I doubt we would be doing much better if the ticket was reversed...

[Scoopie]

39. Dems would be doing worse if the ticket

were reversed because Kerry is military. The South is about the military not because someone "sounds" like us.

That said...

You have to STOP this region-bating. There are many, many good people here in Southern states who are fighting biased media, whisper wars and, guess what? We're starting to win. But we need help. We are the poor, the tired, the hungry. We don't need your derision. We need your able bodies to come down here and usurp all our conservative radio talk-shows and SPEAK OUT. I try to call one crap show a day - whether I get through or not - and usually get hung up on (particularly the right wingnut preacher guy. When I quote Bible verses that blow his theories, he gets RATHER annoyed) - but I'm trying. And so are about 2/3s of my neighbors in "conservative" Knoxville who have Kerry signs in their yards.

My point is not to pre-judge all of the South. There ARE still states down here that with some nudges would go Kerry.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. I Grew Up In Rural Florida... I'm Just Being Realistic...

nt

[Touchdown]

58. I understand you, but I am busy in Colorado...

getting our 9 votes for Kerry (A36 is going down in flames). The west has always been ignored because the South needs to be coddled and butt kissed every election, and now the focus is on us, AZ, NM and NV, and I really like the attention we're getting. It's about time!

I feel for you, but us here in the west are busy right now.

[yardwork]

44. See my post #38

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. I Never Said Southerners Were Racists...

I could list the reasons the Democratic party struggles in the south but I'm tired...

[PerfectSage]

63. IMO, There is hope for the future for Dems in the south.

Off the top of my head, I'd guess the 2 fastest growing demographic groups are hispanic and aging baby boomers. So federal immigration, healthcare, social security policies implemented by Kerry can help make the southern dems competitive in the future.

[Cha]

21. Speaking of Clinton...

May he have a miraculous recovery and be able to do some last minute Schmoozing for Votes!:P

[6th Borough]

66. Has the campaign stated yet where in Broward County FL he'll be on Monday?

I'de have to catch that if I could.

If they haven't yet disclosed it, maybe I'll find out this weekend (I'll be at the Kerry FL HQ this weekend).

[DuaneBidoux]

8. I think it is good strategy...

But, unlike Gore, don't pull out of ANY of the swing states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, ever ever ever until the last vote has been cast.

[Scoopie]

24. I still think there is a surprise lurking

in one of the "pink" states - light-Shrub red states, like Arkansas, Tennessee or Virginia.
One or two of these are going Kerry. You watch.

[DuaneBidoux]

74. You Rock - and may you also be a prophet!

[Southern Patriot]

78. Look for Clinton to show up in Arkansas soon. nfm

nfm

[IrishBloodEngHeart]

9. Bush has conceded entire West Coast

Where's the news on that.

[DCal]

19. and the entire Northeast

outside of Pennsylvania, where he will have his butt kicked as well.

[tigereye]

76. cripe I wish he would stop coming here!

welcome! My state is a blue state!

[6th Borough]

67. Well, there ARE only three states on the West Coast.

Just saying.

West Coast /= South.

Of course I'm not overlooking the 55 EV's in California Bush has no chance of picking up, but he never had a shot in hell of getting California.

[charleston1]

70. Not Oregon

Let him keep sinking money there.

[BillZBubb]

13. Gosh, the LA Times should tell us something we don't know.

Kerry wasn't going to waste resources in the South. He needed to win the midwest where he would have a better than even chance. Join that with the West coast and the Northeast and he's president.

[quaoar]

16. Kerry has already spent money

in Arkansas, Louisiana, Virginia and NC.

And should continue to do so.

I can understand conceding the rest of the South, but those four -- and possibly Tennessee -- would be winnable with some effort, as in campaign appearances.

[movonne]

26. Probably if he had the time and money he would continue to go

for the south...but now we are getting down to the stretch and has to concentrate on the electoral votes...

[BillZBubb]

27. That money was seed money, not big bucks.

He threw some funds in just to see the way the wind was blowing.

Would you risk spending time and money in any Southern state versus putting almost everything into the midwest? If Kerry wins in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, he's the president. If he loses just one of those, he's retired. Now would you risk losing one of those winnable states to pull an upset in any Southern state?

Not me.

[quaoar]

30. You might

if you thought it was a good idea to also have a Democratic Senate and you made an effort to help Senate candidates in North and South Carolina and Louisiana.

[charleston1]

72. Several million is not seed money

"Would you risk spending time and money in any Southern state versus putting almost everything into the midwest?"

I can't argue against that logic with 20/20 hindsight, but he spent a bundle in some of those southern states giving it his best shot. You could argue that Arizona was a waste of time too, but you gotta go for a cushion somewhere right?.

[charleston1]

71. Kerry gave it a good try in the south

"Kerry wasn't going to waste resources in the South."

He spent a lot of money in NC, AR, MO, and even LA. It was not for lack of trying.

[Skip Intro]

22. The facts are being spun. Bush isn't advertising in the south either.

Kerry nor his team said they were "conceeding" the south.

Only mysterious, unnamed "analysts" are saying that.

I'm in a southern state, SC, and I'm seeing more Kerry/Edwards signs and stickers than bush or "w" ones. A good bit more.

And guess what? bush isn't advertising here either. I haven't seen one bush commercial. Is bush conceeding the south?

Way biased writing.

[quaoar]

25. I understand completely

I'm in Alabama. Not a Bush ad to be found on local TV. Bush hasn't been here in a long time.

Of course, Bush will likely win here by 15 points.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. Go Where The Votes Are

They ain't in the south...

Sad but true....

[evilqueen]

35. I don't understand...

why the South would vote for the Republicans. I realize the deep connection to Confederacy and the historical background and all, but what I don't understand is how the south, which contains a relatively large number of people in poverty (and I don't mean that as a slam, it seems to be a fact of life down there, I've seen it, I used to live in South Carolina) would want to vote for rich, white men who are on the side of Big Business and not for working people. Do southerners really believe that these rich white men are going to do anything for them? I have never understood the logic of that. I assume it all has to do with a perceived religiousity on the Right, but is that all that motivates voters down south?

There is a large black population down south. Have they forgotten the Civil Rights movement of the fifties and sixties and seventies? Have they forgotten Martin Luther King and the Kennedy brothers and all the Liberals who worked so hard for them over the years? It's true that everything still isn't perfect, but where do they think they would be right now without help from the Democrats?

I just don't understand this.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

47. The African American Vote Isn't The Problem (nt)

[evilqueen]

51. Still, even poor white people should be voting Democrat. n/t

[mitchum]

50. Southern African Americans do vote overwhelmingly Democratic...

but the winner take all aspect of the electoral votes allows the GOP in the south to negate this formidable Democratic voting bloc. All part of the Southern Strategy.

[Zen Democrat]

80. With Republicans controlling everything, and cutting everything ...

how long before the people in Alabama and Mississippi wake up and realize that they are digging a hole in voting Republicans into office? These aren't particularly rich states, are they?

Texas has a reputation of being a rich state, and poor people are hurting here. But lots of the poor will vote for Bush because their pastors tell them "he's God's man".

How long can this go on before these people get a glimpse of the truth and realize they're being used?????

[joanne]

29. The media makes me sick!!

And the LA Times is one of the better ones.

Where are the stories about Chimpy giving up on the entire Northeast, not to mention all the Pacific states including the biggest electoral prize.... California?

And why is it when a certain poll shows a Kerry lead (however small) it is a "dead heat" but when * is ahead by even a single point it is a "* lead"????

:shrug:

[Cha]

33. See, that's what I wondered from reading this..

article..it sounded fishy to me.

[tigereye]

77. that is so cool!

South Carolina with Kerry signs. That is great!

[farmbo]

34. Maryland's south of the Mason-Dixon line...and Kerry's whupin' a**.

LATimes needs a fact checker.

[quaoar]

40. Maryland ain't in the South

They don't play football there. LOL

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. I Think Folks Mean The States That Comprised The Confederacy

nt

[demgrrrll]

49. Karl Rove thinks that 4 million evangelicals did not vote in the last

election. He never gives any data to support that claim or any state breakdown. I read that it could be that Bush may win the Southern States by 20 more points rather than the Evangelicals being a huge factor in other states. That made sense to me and that is why I think that we may be more competitive in some of the battleground states.

[6th Borough]

65. Debatable. I've read other sources claiming lower Evangelical turnout

You can spin that one either way; I suppose we won't know until election day (and considering there is no religion test in voting, we'll only know through exit polls and extrapolating poll results).

I suppose conservative Evangelical turnout (compared to 2000) will come down to this: Is their support of Bush stronger and rooted more deeply than their disapproval of Clinton? After all, many of the conservative Christians who voted in 2000 were ABC (Anybody But Clinton). If they had been more concerned with purity than pragmatics, Gary Bauer would have claimed a lot more votes.

Either way, I see this as a positive. If he is claiming that only 4 million didn't vote, well, that's a pretty damn small number considering how many Evangelical Christian conservatives there are. In other word, that voting bloc was nearly tapped out in 2000.

Let's say there are 40 million registered Evangelicals (I've read some polls and stats claiming up to 45% of the population are Evangelicals, but that doesn't distinguish between Fundamentalist conservative Evangelicals and the saner variety).

4 out of 40 million (which I believe is a very generous number regarding registered voters)= 4%; if they already vote at a 96% rate, I don't see how they could drive that number up much. Seems awfully more reasonable for that number to level a bit, especially with Bushco spending so little time stumping in the bible belt.

I certainly believe that the % of non-Evangelical eligible voters who turn out will be much higher than in 2000. Aside from Clinton hate, the electorate at large was in a much more apathetic state.

[farmbo]

55. OK...let's hold them to that definition

Kerry cedes the slave-holding states to Bush.

[Thrill]

52. If that is the situation why even make Edwards VP?

Might as well of went with Graham

[atre]

73. Well

Polls showed that Edwards helped more than Graham did. Even in Florida.

[bush equals idiot]

54. When they lose

even if it's close, that will be just as sweet. I hope it burns like pepper spray in an open heart wound.

[usregimechange]

56. Ah, except for NM, AZ, and CA, nt

[avb7]

60. The south goes for the repukes because of....

the little baby Jesus, anti-union fervor, we wish they were still in the back of the bus and guns. Plain and simple. When that changes, I'll have some respect for Dixie.

[cyr330]

68. Why don't we let them secede?

They can take Bush* and make him their president, and we'll take the rest of the country. Any of the residents of those southern states that belong with us should come and leave the rest of those freepers where they belong!

[j_carters_neighbor]

75. Don't buy into it, he will do very well in the south

Kick

[Wapsie B]

79. Exactly.

I don't write off ANY region of the country. Kerry/Edwards Landslide. Believe it.

[BamaGirl]

82. Conceding the South?

Really? Then why I am, in the 5th largest city in Alabama (and major repug area), seeing Kerry ads on my local news every night? :shrug: I haven't seen any local polls so can't say where Kerry stands here but, one of our high schools had a mock election yesterday and the breakdown was B 57%, Kerry 37%, the rest Nadar. I wonder how much of that is a reflection of how their parents plan to vote? Believe it or not this would be a HUGE improvement over the 2000 election (where B got about 70% of the vote if I remember correctly). Alabama is going to go Bush, no doubt, but I don't think it's going to be at anywhere near the margin of the 2000 election. We are making progress here, but like everything we do, it's slow going. Better slow than never.