Realistically, can we win without FL and Ohio?

[HeldsBelds]

What states would we need to win?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

1. no -(nt)

[ShaneGR]

2. No... but

We can win Ohio and lose FLorida, or the opposite, and win. We need at least one of the two.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. NM, WI, and IA....

Would we have to win one or two out of those three plus Ohio to win...

I am assuming we pick up NH and nothing else changes from 000

Please say only one...

[ps1074]

3. we need either FL or OH

I think we'll win them both :)

[tomfodw]

4. We need at least one of them

I don't see how Kerry can win if he loses both. Sorry, that's how it looks to me.

[requiem99]

6. Yes, but it depends how we lose Ohio and Florida. Let me explain.

If Ohio and Florida are both stolen, but undecideds break for Kerry by at least 65-70 percent (which is very, very likely) we will pick up tons and tons of other states. Virginia, Nevada, Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina, West Virginia, and even Tennessee and Louisiana are all possible. If a lot of those states break for kerry due to undecideds, and many or all could as they are all fairly close or VERY close, AND those states are not stolen TOO, we'll still win.

Remember: Undecided voters are the key, and they HISTORICALLY break for the challenger by 60-70 percent, even if the incumbent is doing pretty good.

Bush isn't. Expect a landslide.

[secular_warrior]

10. Yep. I agree with that.

If we show a lot of strength in Ohio and Florida and barely lose them, it's still possible we could win elsewhere and pick up the EV's we need.

However, if we lose definitively in either or both of those states, we would probably not win the election.

For those wondering why this is - these states are bellweathers that reflect strength with the center/center-right of the country. If Dems can't win or come close in OH or FL, odds are we can't win in states similar or to the right of them. (which are the only type of states we need, since we'll have all the states to the left of them).

[HFishbine]

7. Sure

Lots of scenarios. Here are a few:

- Gore states plus OH

- Gore states plus FL

- Gore states plus CO and NH

- Gore states plus MO

- Gore states plus NC

- Gore states plus AR and NH

- Gore states plus NH and NV


Explore different scenarios here: http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[PNsC]

8. Why worry?

Ohio and PA are ours, even if they steal Florida again.

[montana500]

9. we still have to win another state in the west or midwest if we get Ohio

It's looking like Ohio and PA are going our way.But we would stil have to win another state besides Ohio.

Our best bet is Florida. We could lose Iowa and Wisconsin, and if we pick up Florida all we would need is NM.

With Ohio, we can only afford to lose one of Iowa Wisconsin, and then we would have to win NM.

[spotbird]

11. Florida is too rigged, in Ohio we have a good shot.

I wish this were over.

[PNsC]

15. Me too

It's getting harder by the day. I'm afraid I'm going to lose it before Tuesday.

[Shadow30]

22. Yeah it the anticipation thats the killer...

...its driving me nuts.

[PSU84]

12. We need to go 2 for 3 in OH, PA, and FL

If Kerry wins any 2 of them, he's in. If he loses 2 of three, it's going to be very tough to reach 270 electoral votes.

My Top Secret spreadsheet has the final tally at Kerry 284, Bush 254.

[Renew Deal]

13. Yes and Yes

Kerry is polling well in both. He has a good ground game in both.

[DrFunkenstein]

14. We Take PA and OH, Bush Takes FL

I can't see it going down any other way. If it does, somebody is in trouble (not necessarily us, either).

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. are u the fella that was selling that mi poll where kerry was losing by

four



Tell Karl I said hi...

[sonicx]

17. Kerry, hopefully, wins one of them by 3% or more

I think he can.

[Awsi Dooger]

18. I would say a 25% chance without those two

That's probably a little bit high. I ran it thru Excel and came up more like 15%, but I'm using a conservative 62.5% of the undecideds to Kerry.

Unless we lost both states in squeakers and won the other contested states similarly. Just not enough margin for error with out FL or Ohio. Not enough margin for error, period, without a nice national lead like Clinton enjoyed twice.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. If We Had Clinton's Six And Eight Point Lead We Could Be Partying Now...

nt

[michigandem2]

19. i'm banking fl is a long shot...OH has to be in our column

we lose both..we lose

[milkyway]

21. Small chance, but unlikely. Kerry needs two out of three for two groups

of states: Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio; and also from Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin. For the second smaller group there are other states that could compensate for them, but it's hard to see Kerry winning if he can't take Minnesota and either Iowa or Wisconsin.

There is no way Pennsylvania will go for bush, and even though more people will show up in Florida to vote for Kerry, it will be hard to overcome the bush crime family there. Ohio will decide the election, and I feel confident of a solid Kerry win there.

[baltodemvet]

23. Why should we? n/t

No state left behind! :kick: