Zogby-Bush* 47 Kerry 45

[DemocratSinceBirth]

www.reuters.com


As I said in my thread last night we need to reopen the gender gap to win...

[montana500]

1. wtf?

Why is it when Kerry is ahead one or two it's a "tie" according to Reuters, but when Bush is up one or two its a "lead"?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Biased Headlines

Ignore them...

We need to reopen the gender gap...

[montana500]

3. well, whats your plan?

I have had a plan for Kerry the whole time, and I wanted him to do it at the debates, and that was to offer the creation of a S.R.U. or (school response unit) which would be a specific are of local law enforcement that is trained for responding to any kind of school crisis,and have an open line to security officials i nthe school 24/7. It's something that would make moms feel safer, and swing their votes to Kerry.

Bush never offered this after the Russian school attack, and I really wish Kerry would.


What is your plan?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

21. that's a good idea...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. that's a good idea...

[sweetheart]

5. Its turnout time

Convincing voters... is reaching its last moments... people are
decided, many absentees have already voted. TURNOUT! Dems always
win with turnout.

[TomClash]

9. That's right.

Get to a battleground state and do what you can. I'm going to FLA Friday.

[jefferson_dem]

19. We obviously do need to expand the support among women

and i believe you see much effort made by the campaign in that direction. Some polls do show a still hefty gender gap. See Thursday's Marist poll - a 10 pt. spread. Still, Kerry is polling better among men than previous Dem candidates so winning women in huge numbers may not be AS important.

Splashed across my morning paper today were three mammoth pics of the kidnapped aid worker pleading for her life. You wonder what sort of effect those images will have.

[still_one]

4. first of all there is no change from yesterday

second, it is within the margin of error
third, we should see the undecided break for Kerry within the next several days

Hang in there

[helpisontheway]

6. Now Bush is leading with the independents too?

I just don't know what to think about these people. UGH...First Bush scares the women into supporting him. Now the independents are falling for his lies too...UGH.......

[montana500]

7. we didnt see undecides break for gore

did we?

[Teaser]

10. he wasn't a challenger

to an unpopular incumbent. Doesn't happen then.

[rjbny62]

8. don't worry, * ceiling is 47%

and needs to be ahead by 4% in order to win....Kerry is in good shape

[unfrigginreal]

11. We're still in great shape - watch for Zogby's battleground polls tomorrow

If we weren't in great shape, Kerry wouldn't be campaigning in a red state today. Kerry is in Colorado and Bush is trying to defend in Florida.

[mvd]

12. Bush had pretty good day of polling yesterday

According to Zogby's site, it was 49* - 46 Kerry, with only 4 percent undecided. One day of polling led Zogby to say, "Could the undecideds be breaking for Bush?" Geez - I'm almost ready to just trust the state polls.

[59millionmorons]

13. Zogby

On Monday Zogby said Democrats are softer for Kerry and Republicans are stronger for Bush. By Wednesday he was reporting that Democrats are once again strong behind Kerry. What happened between Monday and Wednesday nothing. It's all about the current sample. So no Bush is not ahead with independents it's just the current sample. By Monday Kerry will be back ahead and Zogby will have another excuse.

[Teaser]

15. One problem with pollsters

is that they feel the need to attribute reasons to everything that happens in a poll, even in one day samples of smallish size.
They know about statistics, but stats don't sell polls to clients.
Trends do. So every fluctuation is a trend.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. It's A Three Day Running Sample....

so on any one day about four hundred people are being polled...


Since you are trying to represent 110,000,000 people your margin of error is about nine percent...

A movement in this size sample can be attributed to statistical noise....

See, I got in a big debate on this board about Zogby because he inferred from a one day sample in the weekend before the New Hampshire primary that Dean was making a comeback... One could argue what Zogby saw as a "comeback" was just statistical noise because of the small sample...

[59millionmorons]

16. Good day

If Bush won yesterday 49-46 then Kerry must of had a good day on Thursday to keep it tied. By Tuesday Kerry will have the lead. It looks like Bush's good day's will drop off by then. Unless of course he replaces them with better day's. The thing is Zogby had Bush leading Gore right up to the last few days in 2000.

[mvd]

18. Very true

I like your take on it. :thumbsup:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

25. I think Bush Was Leading Gore Right Up To The Final Poll..

And the final poll showed a three point shift...

[unfrigginreal]

17. Here's another comment he had about the polling

Zogby said Bush was performing slightly better this year in the states he won in 2000 -- the so-called "red states" named for the color used by television networks to identify them -- than Kerry was in the states won by Gore.

"Bush leads in the 'red states' 51 percent to 42 percent, while Kerry leads in the 'blue states' by only 47 percent to 43 percent," Zogby said.

This would tend to give Bush a better number in the national horserace. If he sees more than one day of polling showing undecideds moving toward Bush then I 'd be concerned but I don't think one day means anything.

[unfrigginreal]

20. Bush Might Gain 2 Million Votes Where He Doesn't Need Them

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush is poised to gain 2 million votes this year in the three most-populous U.S. states: California, Texas and New York. None of those ballots will help him win re-election.

With national polls showing a deadlocked race between Bush and Democratic nominee John Kerry, polls in individual states show Bush gains over his 2000 totals in some places he is already likely to win easily and in others where he is too far behind for his gains to matter.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a.8ul6o665Yg&refer=top_world_news

[kentuck]

14. Does Nader get the remaining 8% ?

I am suspicious of all polls, including Zogby, that do not add up to 100% ??

[jefferson_dem]

24. Undecides, even now. Count on 2/3 of them going Kerry.