Rasmussen Battleground Polls for 10/23 (Mixed News)

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3 day national polling numbers improved for Kerry by two and a half points over yesterday. Bush leads 48.0% to 46.7%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

However, Zogby has Bush leading by 2 points at 47%-45%, the same as yesterday.

http://www.zogby.com

As a side note, to those who keep saying that Rasmussen can't be trusted, please note that he has Kerry closer than the Democrat, Zogby. I believe they both can be trusted, but that all polls are under counting Kerry support for a number of reasons including undecideds breaking Kerry, Young and new voters going Kerry, and a far superior get out the vote effort by all the Dems.

Rasmussen's 7 day rolling averages of 5 key battleground states are:

Florida, Tie 48% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from yesterday)

Michigan, Kerry 52%-47% (This margin is unchanged from yesterday)

Minnesota, Bush 48%-46% (This is unchanged from yesterday)

Ohio, Bush 50%-45% (This is a one point Bush gain from yesterday, and a number that does not jibe with other polls. This figure I find suspect)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 50%-45% (This is unchanged from yesterday)


In some updates for other states:

Iowa, bush 48%-46% (This is a 6 point Bush gain from 10/12)

Maryland, Kerry 53%-43% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from 10/9)

New Jersey, Kerry 52%-44% (This is a 1 point Bush gain from 10/11)

New York, Kerry 57%-36% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from 10/6)

Virginia, Bush 49%-44% (This is a 1 point Kerry gain from 9/29)

[maine_raptor]

1. Thanks, anything on Maine?

[louis c]

3. Rasmussen has nothing new on Maine.

Hoeverer. you can try this link for all the battleground states, including Maine.

http://realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

[Sean Reynolds]

2. I don't trust daily tracking polls in a close election.

They're too fickle and I just can't believe a poll that shows a daily swing of 2-3 points, it just doesn't jibe with me. Also most have HORRIBLE MOE (5 range) and in a close election you can't get a general consensus of where the voting public is going. That is why most tracking polls were off in 2000 and will probably be off in 2004 -- whether one shows Kerry or Bush leading.

[sonicx]

4. this all looks good except IA OH and MN

i've seen kerry up in IA, OH, and MN in other polls.

i know kerry's not losing IA.

[sallyseven]

5. I think that people are lying

and are fed up with the questions.

[Euphen]

6. Rasmussen seems to be out on his own in having Bush up in Ohio,

but there's definitely been movement toward Bush in Iowa. However, if Kerry wins Ohio he can afford to lose Iowa as long as he holds on to Wisconsin and Minnesota.

[elifino]

7. Interesting dynamic poll

http://www.enigmasoftware.com/products.shtml

Allows one vote per computer, allows you to change your mind. Requires downloading software, I find it to be safe, have been running from July 13. Some results mirror leading polls, others way off. I guess it comes down to what party has the most computers.