Ark Poll - All tied up KERRY 48% bush 48%

[unfrigginreal]

Real poll - and all tied up
Sunday, Oct 24, 2004
By John Brummett

Maybe you remember that a couple of weeks ago I columnized on the poll of the Arkansas presidential race conducted by Opinion Research Associates in Little Rock for us at the Arkansas News Bureau.

President Bush was up by nine points.

snip

We sent Opinion Research back into the field Monday through Wednesday evenings, making 500 calls to likely voters evenly split among the four congressional districts. This is the new report: The presidential race is tied in Arkansas, 48-48.

Kerry has made gains on whether he can handle Iraq. He bests Bush on which candidate would better deal with the economy.

The Democratic nominee may not treat us as a battleground state, but we appear to be one anyway by our own independent streak and stubborn will.

http://www.arkansasnews.com/archive/2004/10/24/JohnBrummett/306414.html

---------

Perhaps Rove should schedule another trip to New Jersey. Oh wait, things don't look to well there either. Will post latest NJ poll in another thread.

[annerevere]

1. Great news! Thanks for the post (eom)

[tedoll78]

2. Whoa.

Time for me to update my election model..

amazing!

[Guaranteed]

3. God DAMMIT get Clinton down there NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What's his name on Capital Gang was saying EXACTLY THIS- it is RIDICULOUS for Clinton to be in PA when it's already locked up for us anyway!

We NEED those extra six EVs, dammit!

[Jasper 91]

13. I heard the reason Clinton is going to PA

Is because he can be driven there . Apparently he can't fly yet , though I don't know why .

[Guaranteed]

15. Yeah...that does make sense.

Grrr...drive him down to Ark.

I know. I hate to push him, but, man, I regret that he has but one life to give for his country.

[lancdem]

40. I think he very well might end up in Arkansas

the weekend before the election.

[shawmut]

19. Isn't he going to be in Miami Monday night?

I thought I read that somewhere.

[troublemaker]

30. Isn't he also campaigning in FL the same day?

[demokatgurrl]

25. PA is not locked- I live in PA and not only is it close but

the Repukes are sending a couple thousand thugs here to "challenge" voters in urban (code: BLACK), heavily Democratic areas. NYT story yesterday said they are paying $100. We'll see a desperate lot of people doing Repuke bidding for $100. Sad. But we have to be on guard and make sure our voters get to vote or they will steal PA like they did FL.

[merbex]

4. Wasn't here on DU that I learned that

if we hold every Gore state and add NH and ARK we win through the back door

Send Bill Clinton to ARK ASAP

[tedoll78]

6. Yes.

I called it "the back door into the White House." While everyone's waiting at and watching the "front door" (FL/OH/PA), Kerry could sneak in through the back.

[merbex]

7. I got invited to a Kerry event in NH on Monday morning

Kerry will be there; I'd have to get up at 3 am to be where they want to have the rally. Can't do it. I need to get my kids off to school.

NH is critical.

Go Kerry Go Pats Go Sox

It's great to be from New England this week

[demokatgurrl]

22. Wow, it must be early b/c Clinton and Kerry will be

in Philly at 10 a.m.

[Brucey]

10. Back door is a problem

Yes, AR and NH are possible... but it means Kerry would need Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa. It is unlikely he will get all three. He might not get any of those. Concerning the front door, I am cynical and don't believe Florida is possible. Jeb will cheat. That means Ohio and Pennsylvania are necessary, along with some of the other swing states; at least some of MN, WI, and IA

[DuaneBidoux]

21. I tend to see it your way...

It might we worth it getting Bill to Ark, but your overall strategy to me seems the best. The only thing I would say is that I wouldn't entirely give up on Florida - it's possible that GOTV efforts could make a margin that can be stolen. But yea', Ohio and the Mid-West generally are the key.

[demokatgurrl]

32. Jeb will do all in his power, legal or otherwise, to get

FL for Shrubbie.

[lefthandedskyhook]

35. Let's hope that he is prosecuted & convicted for these crimes

It would be an important first for the family. :)

[snippy]

28. The biggest problem now with the smaller states is the amount of time

needed to hit all of them often enough. At this point in the campaign Kerry really needs to concentrate his fire.

[shawmut]

5. nice

I'd love to see us get at least one southern state (outside of FL) ... AR and VA would be nice. :)

[Fluffdaddy]

8. Liars lie and Big Liars needs Polls to lie for them. BS no way Kerry wins

Arkansas...............Not going to happen

[Guaranteed]

9. Geez, man...whose side are YOU on? nt

[Fluffdaddy]

12. The truth. We don't need BS Hope. FL and Ohio is where our hopes should

Be. It's Past the time for day dreaming.........10 days left Lets make them count

[unfrigginreal]

16. LOL Fluffy

Why does good news seem to bother you so much?

[shawmut]

11. Much better chance Kerry wins AR than Bush wins NJ or Hawaii

or PA, MI, OR and MN for that matter.

[The Flaming Red Head]

14. Lots of Kerry /Edwards signs going up in all the yards

Especially in the working class neighborhoods. People wave at me and my bumper sticker now, even I was surprised about that. Lots of solidarity among all us Democratic voters.

[Radical Activist]

34. What Northern or coastal state are you from?

It seems like everyone from the North or east coast writes of Arkansas because it is a southern state. Bad idea!

[WI_DEM]

17. Gee I wonder what the lurking freepers have to say?

Arkansas trending to Kerry. Kerry ahead in Florida and Ohio. All the newspaper endorsments for Kerry in red states--and all the newspaper endorsements for Kerry period.

[Thrill]

18. Oh Big Dawg

sick em

[HootieMcBoob]

20. I think Wes Clark is helping a lot in Arkansas

If Clinton can't make it down there Clark is the next best thing. He's from Little Rock too. :toast:

[DuaneBidoux]

23. I'd love to believe it. To fantasize, but I just don't see it

I'm all for doing anything however besides PULL resources from states like Ohio, Florida, Minnesotta, Wisconsin, etc.

My father lives down there and I'm telling you they're all a bunch of right wing religious fundies. I just can't see it happening.

[Radical Activist]

37. You can't make decisions based on stereotypes

That's why this mistake is happening. A higher turnout of african-american voters and half the people who voted for Nader in 2000 is enough to give Kerry a victory in AR. That's all it would take to outnumber the fundies.

[DuaneBidoux]

39. Hope and pray you're right!!!!!!

I think I need some aroma therapy right now however.

[PurityOfEssence]

24. Clinton needs to show up with his very own personal Bible

and show them that the Republican propaganda is nothing but that: that book will not be banned flyers have clamed.

[Ediacara]

26. Get the three C's into Arkansas ASAP: CLINTON, CLARK, and CASH

[Kammer]

27. Northwest Arkansas

While this is a bastion of Republicanism and I am in the middle of it, the intensity of support for Bush is not at the 2000 high level. His support is soft, and while he will win this area, not at the level he did in 2000.

If they would send Clinton to the Arkansas/Mississippi Delta area, where he is very, very popular, he could help get out the overwhelming Kerry support and tip Arkansas to Kerry.

It is very possible.

[TruthIsAll]

29. Clinton will close AR for Kerry...

tia

[mvd]

31. Great news!

:bounce:

If this is the case, I don't understand any polls that have a Bush lead.

[Radical Activist]

33. Like I was saying

in my other post before I saw this one. Zogby has shown Arkansas being tied for months. Not making a serious drive in Arkansas may end up being the single biggest mistake that the Kerry campaign has made during this election. It is an easy state to pick up but almost no effort has been made.

If Arkansas goes Democrat this year it will be because of the work Project Vote and ACORN have done among African-American voters, not because Kerry made an effort.

[texas is the reason]

36. time to send in the big dawg!!!! whoof whoof whoof!!!

[Pithy Cherub]

38. It's beginning

to look A LOT like KERRY,
Everywhere you go!
thanks
(Love the polls not for the instant snapshot, but the drubbing the putrid pundits are going to get after this election!)