Prediction - whoever is down by less than 3 points

[JPJones]

or up by more than 3 points in the polls next Monday will win.

It's all about turnout. Whoever is up will see less turnout of their base. Whoever is down will see massive turnout.

[trumad]

1. No President has ever won reelection with approval rating of less the 50%

Dubya's at 44. That's the reason he will lose.

[Minstrel Boy]

7. No President had won election on a 5 to 4 vote, either.

That's the reason I take nothing for granted.

[Birthmark]

2. I disagree

The polls are particularly worthless this year. Too many new voters for the polls to be able to assimilate properly. Bush will lose.

[JPJones]

3. But they do impact voter psychology

And it's all about turnout, but being down a small bit I think is a great thing.

[sundancekid]

4. we can make the same psych argument if we're up by a few points

it WILL be ALL about TURNOUT and taking absolutely not even one vote for granted or left behind ...

Kerry. It. On.

[Birthmark]

5. Voter psychology is also out the window.

Here's Voter Psychology, v2004 - "This is the suck. Let's get rid of Bush."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Disagree...

Unless something dramatic happens there won't be a consensus on who's winning in the national polls...


The last close presidential elections were 68 and 76....


Some polls had Humphrey and Carter winning...

Some polls had Nixon and Ford winning...

And I doubt the average Joe or Jane follows the polls as slavishly as us...

[Guaranteed]

8. I honestly don't think the polls, either way, will affect turnout

at all. This is WAY too close, and people care way too much.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. of course

nt