Hawaii is now a toss up in THE election - I have a theory.

[MyUncle]

It's about local politics.

Edited to provide link to story - http://the.honoluluadvertiser.com/article/2004/Oct/23/ln/ln05p.html

Specifically, it's about No Child Left Behind. Bush passed it and it is affecting the schools and how they are accountable in a way that they have never seen here. People who came from other places and could not find even simple public school rankings or test scores in Hawaii were appalled. Asians (I'm one) historically are education focused. Accountability in schools was long overdue and George Bush is getting credit for forcing Hawaii schools hands on this one.

Hawaii is now finding out what most of the mainland has known for decades - schools that have a larger portion of English as second language or lower income levels score lower than schools with predominately English speaking and higher incomes. "Duh" for most of you on the mainland, but it is new news here.

Linda Lingle, a REPUBLICAN, Jewish, woman (figure that one out) was recently elected Governor has been making education reform a major talking point here and blaming the Democratic legislature for blocking her initiatives. She is winning the PR war on this.

Bottom line is Hawaii is in play. Better get to work on this one.

[high density]

1. No, it's not in play

This poll was debunked a half dozen times yesterday. It oversamples Republicans by about 10 points or so.

[MyUncle]

5. I was off line yesterday, do you have a thread I can look at?

[lessthanjake]

19. You sure?

Provide a link to that.

Anyways kerry will win hawaii. I have no doubt.



BTW how many posts do i have to make before i can make a thread?

[DaveinMD]

2. HI is not a tossup

that poll had 44 percent Republicans and 31 percent Democrats. HI is not in play.

[West Coast Democrat]

3. If, the poll were true, I'd expect to see others with similar conclusions

and there aren't any.

[MyUncle]

4. There has only been ONE state wide poll done.

It's by the newspaper that will endorse John Kerry.

[DaveinMD]

7. the poll

included 44 percent republicans in the sample and 31 percent Dems. That will not be the HI electorate. Therefore, its a bad poll.

[DebJ]

6. PARENTS need to be held accountable. Teachers efforts are

useless if the parents don't give a damn. In Baltimore City for awhile at least, PARENTS went to JAIL for a brief while when their children were constantly AWOL from school. I liked that.

What the hell can a teacher do in a school where the kids are brain damaged from drug addicted parents who are out screwing around all night, asleep all day, think the purpose of children is to wait on them, and the damn schools won't even give the kids pencils and papers, and they have like 8 textbooks for 30 kids?

(Frustrated wife of an inner city school teacher, who spends at least 8 hours every weekend working his butt off to help these kids. He just spent $23 photocopying worksheets for his kids because the alternative is getting to school at 6am and hoping, just merely HOPING, that he will be able to get in line at the copier early enough to actually use the thing...most times, not. He really loves his kids...but most will NEVER achieve anything close to grade level reading....7th graders mostly at first to second grade reading level....threatening to fire my husband will NOT make brain-damaged children able to perform. It sucks.)

[sonicx]

8. Seriously, if Hawaii was in play, Kerry would know way before now and...

would have done something about. He has his own expensive private polls and hasn't reacted to anything he see from Hawaii, NJ, CA, etc (some polls of those states say the race is close, lol).

[DuaneBidoux]

9. Well, I suppose it couldn't hurt to dig someone up (Kucinich?)

and send him out there. I still have a hard time believing Hawaii would ever go red because they are extremely sensitive to the U.S. image abroad because of all the foreign tourists they get from everywhere (When I'm in Hawaii I run into Europeans that flew OVER mainland US to get to Hawaii).

[MyUncle]

12. Good idea, Kucinich did well here because he did visit during the Primary.

The bad news is Bush also visited here recently, on second thought, that might be part of it as well.

[fujiyama]

10. I saw another poll

having Bush ahead by a point. It was 46-45 with 9 undecided. I'll find a link later.

Maybe it really is a toss up in this election. My hope is that it isn't or even if it is, the 4 EVs goin to Bush won't make a difference.

[CMO]

11. How many electoral votes does Hawaii have?

[MyUncle]

13. 4. Same as ME, NH. 1 less than NV, WV

[MyUncle]

14. In some scenarios HI tips the election, link below to interactive map.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/election-test-fl,0,1851284.flash

[goodwalt]

15. Have a better theory

This latest poll is idiotic, repug nonsense- in the tradition of Strategic vision and Mason Dixon. Never heard of the polling outfit- and since their numbers directly contradicts both conventional wisdom and EVERY SINGLE OTHER POLL I have ever seen on HI, I am going to laugh it off.

[TruthIsAll]

16. Sorry, Hawaii is nOT in play. Notice how many undecideds there

are in that poll? 15-20%. That's if you believe they are undecided.

They will go for Kerry. There goes Hawaii - out of play, where it always was.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. You're Right....

I want to see the internals on both polls...

Yesterday's polls includes 41% Pukes and 31% Democrats...


Exit polls from 00 showed 51% Dems and 19% Pukes in Hawaii...

Michigan and Hawaii are this year's California*.....

They are trying to scare us and demoralize us....

Fuck Them....


*In the final days of Campaign 00 Pukes were trying to propagate the meme that Cali was in play...

P. S. This is for the seminal poster...I live in Florida and if having a popular governor helped the candidate from your party carry the state Bush would have a ten point lead in Florida...

Please don't peddle your gloom and doom here.... Did the Army of the Potomac wring their hands before the Battle Of Gettysburg...


Stand up straight... Take the kick me sign off your ass and be proud you're a Democrat....

[MyUncle]

18. I live here, I work here, my 3 kids go to school here.

I posted this on our state site too. This is a call to avoid complacency. "Take nothing for granted is the message", it's not "Kick me", it's "Kick Ass".

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Hawaii Is A Great State And I Love Hawaiians...

It's not going red....

[MyUncle]

21. Mahalo and Aloha.