Bush Ahead by FIVE in Michigan? (There's also good news though)

[liberalpragmatist]

From a presentation by Lockhart and Devine:

http://www.theleftcoaster.com

....Lockhart and Devine told the national media that Kerry/Edwards are in a very strong position nationally, with demonstrated strength in the battleground states, which recent polls show are leaning towards Kerry. Both made the point that unlike four years ago, the campaign has the resources and the ground operation to compete in the full range of battleground states. Both indicated that there will still be adjustments in the final week, based on what the other side does and what the last minute polls indicate. For example, according to late polls, Arkansas is now a legitimate Kerry pick-up target as the state is tied. That for example may dictate not only more resources for Arkansas, but a last minute re-entry into Missouri, as we predicted here last week. Nora O’Donnell of NBC News mentioned that a Detroit News poll out tomorrow will show that Bush has surged to a five point lead in previously safe-for-Kerry Michigan, yet Devine indicated that this poll given past Detroit News’ polls may be an outlier.

***

So a new poll has Bush up by 5 in Michigan. HOWEVER, Devine says it's probably an outlier, but they're monitoring the situation. Michigan DU'ers - work hard. We'll probably still win it.

Read the whole post at the link - it's very informative.

[Cha]

1. "bush ahead by five in Michigan"?

I hope Governor Granholm is out there campaigning for Kerry!

[adadem]

2. don't believe it for a minute

Kerry yard signs and bumper stickers all over in typically conservative areas like Grand Rapids.

[NMDemDist2]

3. is one of the largest Muslim communities in MI?

they are the sleeper bloc this year IMHO

[demgrrrll]

6. Is this the same poll that you used to start the first Michigan 5 points

down thread or is this a new poll?

[liberalpragmatist]

11. That was from a NYT story yesterday

Which said simply "a sudden surge in Mr. Bush's support caught both campaigns by surprise, and both candidates have scheduled events there next week." (Paraphrasing). So it could've been in reference to the same numbers or it could have been internal poll numbers, I don't know.

[lancdem]

4. Detroit News polls ARE suspect

No way Bush wins Michigan. Period.

[sonicx]

5. i think this newspaper did a MI poll last week that...

had bush ahead, but had too many republicans in the sample.

[TruthIsAll]

7. Total BS. Detroit News hasn't done a poll all year. Repuke diversion.

Trying to get Kerry to spend resources there.

All polls show it's a lock. We won it in 2000 and will win it much bigger this time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. You're Right Again....

That poll has 41 Pukes and 41 Dems...

Those lying bastards will do anything to give Bush an edge....

[debatepro]

8. Michael moore

BS moore registered like 100k. in MI. it aint going to happen.

[sonicx]

10. Here's some MI polls released on Sat.

http://www.detnews.com/2004/politics/0410/24/politics-312763.htm

The latest poll, conducted Monday through Thursday by Lansing-based EPIC/MRA for Detroit television station WXYZ, shows Kerry and running mate John Edwards at 49 percent with Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney at 43 percent.

-snip

A Sept. 15-19 poll by EPIC/MRA had the race at 48 percent Kerry/Edwards, 44 percent Bush/Cheney, with Nader/Camejo at 3 percent and 6 percent undecided. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

-snip

A poll for Knight Ridder/MSNBC found 47 percent of 625 people questioned said they supported Kerry for president, while 46 percent supported Bush. One percent backed Nader, and 6 percent were undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 15 through Monday and reported Friday in the Detroit Free Press. It had a margin of error of 4 percentage points.

-snip- (here's the poll from Detroit news)....

A tracking poll of 600 likely state voters conducted for The Detroit News by Mitchell Research & Communications found Bush backed by 46 percent, Kerry by 43 percent and Nader by 1 percent, with 10 percent undecided, backing others or refusing to say. The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday and also had a 4-point margin of error.

[lancdem]

12. BTW, that Knight-Ridder one was done by Mason-Dixon

whose polls skew toward Bush.

[StevenD]

13. Garbage in Garbage out!

There has NOT been a big 10 or 12 point swing in Michigan. What could have caused it?

[DaveinMD]

14. EPIC

had Kerry up by 6 yesterday.

[unfrigginreal]

15. Not fooled even a little bit.