2nd HAWAII Poll: Bush 46, Kerry 45

[liberalpragmatist]

http://starbulletin.com/2004/10/24/news/story2.html



...The numbers show a shift in Hawaii voters towards the Republican president. The new poll of 612 registered voters who said they are likely to vote in the election has Bush with a one percent lead. In August, Kerry was leading by seven percentage points.

Until this poll, Hawaii has been considered to be a a solid, strong bastion for Kerry and the Democrats because only twice in Hawaii's state history has it voted for a Republican. But Hawaii has always voted for the incumbent president who wins a second term. Hawaii voted for Richard Nixon's second term, Ronald Reagan's second term and Bill Clinton's second term. Hawaii has four electoral votes.

Bush is winning 51 percent of the male vote in Hawaii, while Kerry is picking up 47 percent of the female vote. Bush also leads with more than half of the vote among those 35 to 44 and those 55 to 64. Kerry is strongest in Hawaii with younger voters. He has 60 percent of those 18 to 24 and 54 percent of those 25 to 34.

According to the poll's breakdown along ethnic lines, Caucasians equally support Bush and Kerry. But, Filipino-American voters are overwhelmingly in support of Bush, by a 56 to 36 percent margin. Half of Japanese-American voters support Kerry, while more than half of the Hawaiian and part-Hawaiian voters support Bush.

***

MY TAKE: Hawaii is still likely to go to Kerry, even if by a reduced margin. I will say that TWO polls with Bush and Kerry tied makes me somewhat nervous. Nevertheless, there are some flaws with both, so I'll await further polling. The Honolulu Adveriser poll apparently greatly oversampled Republicans. THIS poll only surveyed voters in Oahu, which is just 2/3 of the state's population and includes a large military contingent. As a result, we should take both polls with a grain of salt.

I fully expect us to win Hawaii, even if by a narrower margin. I doubt either campaign's going to waste precious time in the last few days to visit Hawaii. What this means is that Hawaii DU'ers, get out there and get out the vote! Hawaii had the lower voter turnout in the country last time around. Mobilize, GOTV, and work hard just in case!

We shouldn't get complacent. Even though these polls have some flaws, it seems likely that Hawaii is at least somewhat closer. And on Dailykos, where there was a discussion going on about this poll, a Hawaii resident pointed out that in 1976 Carter nearly lost Hawaii despite having assumed he'd win it in a walk. So it can be unpredictable because it's often ignored.*

UPDATE: I can't find any link to the internals, so again, take this with a MAJOR grain of salt.

*paragraph added on another update

[liberalpragmatist]

1. kick

:kick:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. what's the percentage of dems and reps in the poll?

nt

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. kick

[high density]

4. Delete

[RafterMan]

5. Interesting, probably not threatening

Hawaii was 37/56/6 last time. If Bush has really managed to gain 9 points, it would be amazing -- but still insufficient.

Your call for action is well-placed, however. You can never be too sure.

[snowbear]

6. Maybe..

Maybe we can send Chris Heinz over there to campaign? I'll go with him and help him pick out his swim suit or somethin'? :P

[tedoll78]

7. You have debunked both well.

Sampling only in Oahu?

Well.. while we're at it, let me sample only the New Orleans area in Louisiana!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. I Don't Know Hawaii But Let Me Guess Oahu Has More Caucasians Than Natives

NT

[Must_B_Free]

11. It might be those crazy Japanese to blame

[VOX]

9. In 2002, Hawaii elected its first Republican governor in 40 years...

Linda Lingle is the first GOP governor in the state of Hawaii in 40 years. She ran in 1998 and lost by only 5000 votes. Lingle is an excellent fundraiser, and is totally gung-ho for *. Rush and Hannity are on all over the radio over there, polluting the Islands with their brand of right-wing sewage. Regrettably, there may indeed be a bit of a rightward shift taking place in Hawaii.

Democrats should **not** take Hawaii for granted! Please, Aloha State DUers, do everything you can to get out the vote!
:kick:

[Bombtrack]

10. At the least we need to get inouye and Akaka to hold a couple of rallies

for Kerry on his behalf. Show attention to the college democrats and other democratic groups to work harder than they thought they were going to have to, just in case.

[Quetzal]

12. I LIVE ON MAUI

And I have not met ONE person who supports Bush. There ARE no Bush signs here.

The fact of the matter is that there is a large military contingent here in Hawaii. MANY local families have relatives serving overseas.

As for Linda Lingle, yes, she is our governor. However, she only won because of large corruption scandals within the local Democratic Party. She won with fewer votes in 2002 compared to the 1998 election.

If Kerry is willing to explain environmental issues, then I am sure he would do better here in Hawaii.

[rockymountaindem]

13. When I was in Kauai this summer

I saw no support for Bush anywhere. People had even written "Bush" on a lot of the stop signs. Plus I got Air America on the car radio! Crusin' through Hawaii with the convertable top down, listening to AA... doesn't get any better than that.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. That's a good point regarding Lingle in 2002

Her win was more a case of Dems not turning out to support Mazie Hirono, after everything that happened from '98-'02, than any love for the GOP or Lingle. The incumbent Dem governor, who upset Lingle in '98, had a very low approval rating at election time 2002. Amazing Lingle could win by roughly 5% despite less votes than '98, as you mentioned.

Stil, I've read enough Hawaii online papers to know the GOP is making more of an emphasis there than previously. It's a state we should put some work into beginning in 2006, to dump Lingle.