jefferson_dem
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Oct-24-04 07:23 PM
Original message |
Anyone help with Zogby's state tracking poll methodology? |
|
His numbers are just so screwy, on all counts. I can't find notes on his methods. In particular, what's his sample size? Does he use a rolling three-day average? Were today's numbers based on only yesterday's or today's polling? Weekends can be funky, which would help explain things.
|
reprehensor
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Oct-24-04 07:28 PM
Response to Original message |
1. No poll expert here... |
|
But I heard on AirAmerica that he gave up on telephone polling due to the cell phone contingent which he can't contact.
I do know that he does a lot of online polling. I'm on his list, and I'm not sure why.
The surveys are monthly, tops, from what I rec'd. How this is all collated, I have no idea.
|
lancdem
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Oct-24-04 07:37 PM
Response to Original message |
2. Today's numbers are a rolling average of Thursday, |
|
Friday and Saturday. Bush had a really good Saturday, so that will be in the sample two more days.
|
DemocratSinceBirth
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Oct-24-04 07:38 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
3. I Think We Can Get The Best Read By Looking At All The Polls ... |
jefferson_dem
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Oct-24-04 07:47 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
4. Thanks. So i guess these sub-samples from his national group. |
|
Saw that about Chimp's grande day yesterday. Of course, that's totally contradicted by ABC/WaPo. Fuckin' A... Next Tuesday, where are you?
|
DemocratSinceBirth
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Oct-24-04 07:49 PM
Response to Reply #4 |
|
Edited on Sun Oct-24-04 07:49 PM by DemocratSinceBirth
www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com
There's a Poli Sci professor who demonstrates that the movement in the daily tracking polls are inversely related and sometimes are nothing more than variance within the margin of error or noise...
|
westcoastbias
(46 posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
|
Sun Oct-24-04 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #2 |
6. I'm thinking Zogby "lucked out" in 2000 with accurate prediction |
|
He seems to be making shit up and his Internet polling is a joke. Try for yourself and you will understand why.
|
DU
AdBot (1000+ posts) |
Thu May 02nd 2024, 01:46 AM
Response to Original message |