How Devastating is the New York Times October Surprise for Bush?

[Quixote1818]

On a scale from 1-10 How bad is this? Remember all those TONS of missing TNT could be use right here in the homeland! I think this should be huge but I could be wrong.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/du

[tedoll78]

1. I'm skeptical.

BUt I soooooo badly want the media to go apeshit over this, which is why I'm spending this evening emailing various outlets.. just to create the image to their profit-watchers that this is an issue that'll get people watching their shows.

I rate it a 3 right now. If the media runs with it, it could take-up the rest of the week and be fatal (i.e., a "9")

[Quixote1818]

11. Great Idea!!!! We all need to start e-mailing how pissed off we are!!!

Here is a great list of media outlets courtasy of our Friends on the Right http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1228326/posts

[ollie3]

43. We have a media list on DU above!!!!!

Check it out! by skinner?

[flygal]

24. I agree with you - but I rate it a little higher

[Brundle_Fly]

2. oh it's big...

and he'll have to answer for it, as will several.

if you consider the Gore Oct surprize was a DUI * got when he was thirty, I think this is a little bigger.

[rwheeler31]

3. This has been reported

but no one focused on it, will they this time?

[ranosgol]

4. wont meanmuch..rove will try to spin it as proff of WMD!

[Dickie Flatt]

8. Even our whore media won't buy that

[agingdem]

5. I don't think you can do a 1-10 yet...

Kerry has to stay on message but someone like Biden should get on every show he can and say that the munitions cache that the Bushies were too stupid to guard are the very weapons that the insurgents are using against our boys. That should ring loud and clear.

[ciaobox]

6. That all depends on us.

If we work the media like they've never been worked over the next 72 hours, this could grow some serious legs and maybe even a tail. We would need a focused, organized effort of spreading the news throughout all channels of media. DU -- want to take this challenge? Do others agree?

[NEDem]

7. It all depends on how the broadcast media covers it.

If the broadcast outlets run with it, its really bad, if not its anyone's guess.

[sonicx]

9. i'll bet cable tries to find a destraction

like they always do.

[flygal]

23. Is it a hot news day in the Petersen trial?....Something stupid

will bump this out of the way. Americans will put their heads in the sand again. sigh - I'm so pessimistic with the media - how the hell are they called Liberal?!!

Ooooh I'll be the Ashley Simpson thing is all anyone wants to talk about - that's it!

[whistle]

10. Where 1 = not so bad and 10 = catastrophe just waiting to happen...

...I give this a 20!

These were explosives that the U.S. military had custody over so my question would be who in the U.S. military allowed this to happen, what was their motive for allowing this to happen and what is the military doing to prevent this from happening again?:wtf:

[NightOwwl]

12. Here's the story from the NYTimes:

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 24 - The Iraqi interim government has warned the United States and international nuclear inspectors that nearly 380 tons of powerful conventional explosives - used to demolish buildings, produce missile warheads and detonate nuclear weapons - are missing from one of Iraq's most sensitive former military installations.

The huge facility, called Al Qaqaa, was supposed to be under American military control but is now a no-man's land, still picked over by looters as recently as Sunday. United Nations weapons inspectors had monitored the explosives for many years, but White House and Pentagon officials acknowledge that the explosives vanished after the American invasion last year.



http://www.nytimes.com/2004/10/25/international/middleeast/25bomb.html?hp&ex=1098676800&en=61cf6e1aa29b7871&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[kentuck]

16. The photos of the bunkers look very much like the ones that Colin Powell

presented to the UN - just prior to the invasion.??

[aquart]

13. "Homeland"? This is our country, not our "homeland."

Only Emperor Bush and his minions believe this is merely the "homeland." Their delusional interest is all in our magnificent colonies abroad.

[tmooses]

14. To quote the shrub "it's up in the air"..

who knows how much media coverage this will get-the mainstream TV news seems to bury anything that causes any problems for Bush. It doesn't have to be a "ten" to hurt Bush. If it just causes some more questions in the undecided or leaners it could change some votes. This may remind some people of what Kerry said on the same subject during the debates. As far as showing that Bush is a liar (AGAIN!)-after all the shit that has come out from WMD's to 9/11 to Medicare to changing positions on the reason we went to war, etc., I unfortunately think thatpeople who still back Bush either do not care about the truth or don't believe anything negative against him. They just have this blind faith in him-
which is REALLY scary!

[rucky]

15. There will not be a coup de grace for *.

if he hasn't been dealt the final blow by now, he wont be. Nothing he could do would lose his existing support - even launching nukes towards Massachusetts. Nothing is huge. Everything is huge.

The huge story will come after Kerry is inaugurated and the BFEE indicted.

[NightOwwl]

17. Another nail in the coffin.

Another screw-up, another failure of intelligence, another dangerous mess caused by this incredibly incompetent administration.

Alone, it might not have done much damage, but the shit is piling up too deep. Bush is toast.

[xray s]

18. depends on how hard Kerry campaign hits it

I wouldn't trust the infotainment industry to cover it.

[high density]

19. Kerry has already been hitting home the point...

...of how we failed to secure the "ammo dumps" around Iraq. This is just another example of that failure.

[pabloseb]

20. Can this actually favor *?

Some people realize that *'s economic policies have been disastrous, but for some reason think the chimp can better protect us from terrorism. For those people, anything that brings terrorism to the forefront, even if it contradicts their assumption that * is better at fighting it, could help *.

Or not. I don't know. But anything can happen.

[Maddy McCall]

22. John Q will think: "If he's so good at protecting us...

then how could he allow this to happen?"

[Maddy McCall]

21. Megabaddevastating.

[RafterMan]

25. 4

The trouble is that it doesn't sound that different from the many other Bush failings in the postwar period -- most notably, the failure to secure the radioactive material that could be used in a dirty bomb.

But everybody has their breaking point, and this could be it for a few Bush supporters.

Not that we shouldn't try to turn it into a frenzy.

[killbotfactory]

26. In sanity-land: Very. In realworld-land?

I have no idea.

I am firmly convinced that Bush could cannibalize a baby live on TV then shit the remains on the US flag a day later and people would apologize for him and find excuses.

"Maybe it was a terrorist baby?"
"Are we sure the democrats didn't make him do it?"
"It's a terrorist plot!"
"Oooh.. oooh... but Kerry killed babies in 'Nam!"
"September 11th changed everything!"
"But at least he's consistant!"

[AnIndependentTexan]

27. It depends how much we push the media on covering it

[enigmatic]

28. It's big...

Kerry will jump all over this; we need to jump on the media to report this, not push it to the side..

[JCMach1]

29. It is a wash... people will continue to see the * administration

as incompetent... At the same time, they will FEAR how this material will be used.

It's a big story, but the effect is negligible...

[Awsi Dooger]

30. I don't like the timing of this at all

Kerry's problem is his own favorability ratings, much more than Bush's negatives. He needs to spend the final week on an assault of positives, not distracted by more reason and need to attack Bush.

I guarantee at least as many people will hear 380 tons of explosives and conclude Bush is right, this is a dangerous world, than will abandon him based on the 45,935th example of runaway incompetence.

[baltodemvet]

34. We must hammer B/C with this!

Relentlessly.

[TheWebHead]

31. it won't mean a thing

we've known since going into Iraq that we were unable to secure much of the weaponry. It certainly won't qualify as an "October surprise".

[Domitan]

32. Josh Marshall and other antiwar pundits

are pushing this issue hard. They view it as a political betrayal by the White House. I dare say it's possible that the hush-hush by the DOD can have implications even after the elections.

[Hello_Kitty]

33. Kerry brought up in the debates how the oil ministry

was guarded but not weapons and nuclear facilities. That looks good.

[bklyncowgirl]

35. If a tree falls in a forest does anybody hear

It's only devestating if the msm talks about it.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

36. another chink in his Armour

but everything helps

[Strawman]

37. Skeptical also

The Republicans have the issue of framed national security sucessfully with a majority of the public based on the simple idea that they will kick ass first and ask questions later. "We will kick their ass" is their message. "We won't go to the UN or NATO or anything like that. If any Arabs fuck with the USofA we will simply kick their asses." Like it or not, (and I so don't) that kind of tough talk resonates with average Americans. That's why you hear Kerry and Edwards constantly saying over and over that they will hunt down and kill terrorists and that they will never let any other nation have a veto over out national security. Message: we will kick ass too, so we're credible on national security. We'll just be smarter about doing it.

You can just add this to the laundry list of fuck-ups and failures by Bush in Iraq. Why is this story so unique that it will finally be the thing to open people's eyes? After all of the mistakes and lies and outrageous assumptions have been exposed, a majority of people still have more confidence in Bush on national security matters because they just can't keep all the facts straight. Based on the facts alone, even just considering those that have made it through the filter of the mainstream media, Kerry should be killing him on this issue. But Bush has framed the issue of national security in a simple way that intuitively appeals to the average voter. Like George Lakoff says, once the frame has been established, any evidence that doesn't fit gets discarded. Bush well just say "Uhh, err, duhh, it's hard work creating democracy in Iraq, but freedom is on the march." And the hacks on Fox and the RW spin machine will say that we can't expect everything to go smoothly in a war and the damage from this story will be minimized.

Maybe there is some tipping point where the factual evidence smashes the frame. I think there has been a chipping away of Bush's approval on national security and the war on terror. More likely I think that can be attributed with Democratic attempts to counter-frame the issue in the context of Bush's general incompetence as a leader and lack of intelligence in general. Under that frame, Bush cannot keep us safe because he is too incompetent. Average people with average information levels on the issues can understand that. They've seen the guy talk. They've seen him next to Kerry on stage. They know he is much dumber. They know he's a dumbass, and it makes them a little nervous. So I think it's important to explain and spin news like this in the context of Bush's incompetence and then tie that to national security. This news item should lead to the larger question, do we really want this dumbass with his finger on the nuclear button? Do we want him calling the shots in a time of crisis? The guy who looked like a deer in headlights for 7 minutes sitting there reading My Pet Goat after we were attacked? I think with undecideds, it comes down to what's more worrisome, Bush's stupidity and incompetence or Kerry's hesitancy to kick ass and instill fear in our enemies when they believe it's necessary.

[Strawman]

39. Attaboy Kerry, now I'm less skeptical

Excellent response by JK.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=514&e=1&u=/ap/20041025/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_rdp

[tanyev]

38. Scanning the morning chit-chat shows...

All 3 mentioned the missing explosives, but I did not hear one mention about how long our gov't has been aware or the pressure Iraq received to not report it.

[osaMABUSh]

40. 6 - with all the other stories that were missed in 4 years

I do not have a high confidence level this will be a huge impact. It will have some impact but not huge.

America loves personal scandal and tragedy (e.g., Lewinsky) not necessarily national tragedy.

[PerfectSage]

41. The Spin begins

snip
But a senior administration official told CNN that national security adviser Condoleezza Rice was notified about the missing weapons about a month ago. Iraq Survey Group inspectors are investigating, the official said.

(The convenient excuse)The discovery was not made public sooner because standard intelligence practice is not to let the enemy know such information, the official said.
snip

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/10/25/iraq.explosives/index.html

B/C No Mo’ Years :party::toast:

[AlinPA]

42. 1; Rove will spin it as WMDs. People will eat it up.