Kerry: Down the stretch, closing the deal. Bush: flatlining at 46%.

[TruthIsAll]

Bush is flat on his back at 46% in the national state-weighted polling trend. Professionals say that an incumbent does not get a bounce over his final poll numbers. And only seven days are left.


Kerry’s win probability is approaching 100% as he opens up the battleground


Kerry’s projected national vote percentage is increasing.


What are Kerry’s chances if he gets 75% of the undecided vote? A hair below absolute.


Kerry is surging in the Battleground states, especially Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania.


Kerry’s win probabilities in the battleground states.


He has come back and then some from his September decline in the polls.


The media shills call it a dead heat. But they don’t tell you that undecideds break at least 2-1 for the challenger.


Bush job approval is trending down to 48%. Like taking a long walk on a short pier.


The more polls included in a group average, the smaller the margin of error.


The Monte Carlo method simulates 5000 election trials based on state polling. The probability of Kerry winning the election is just the number of simulated trial wins divided by 5000.


The simulation EV outcomes are normally distributed around the mean (expected, average) electoral vote.



Interested in the latest polling results? Want to read about the methodology? Then go here.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[ALago1]

1. Hey TIA

Love your stuff,

Quick question:

Is there a way to quantify the effect a well organized GOTV effort this year can have? Are you aware of any historical data or conventional wisdom regarding this?

I ask because I can't find anything on the internets :)

Thanks!

[TruthIsAll]

3. I don't have a clue. It's tough enough tracking all the polling info

that's available. As far as GOTV, I plead totally ignorant.

[indigobusiness]

2. Yeah, really

thanks for your postings...very informative.

I feel a favorable breeze.

[TruthIsAll]

4. Every poll is turning to Kerry: Now Harris has him leading by 1.

tia

[snowbear]

5. "Bush: flatlining at 46%."

Just don't tell Judy WoofWoof... She'll be flatlining too! O8) :evilgrin: O8) :evilgrin: O8) :evilgrin: O8) :evilgrin:

[RafterMan]

6. My number is 44

about ~47 among LVs, further diluted by the high turnout.

[TheDonkey]

7. I'm praying that more bad news rocks shrubs world

he's behind so much filtth I hope it keeps on being exposed.

[DeepModem Mom]

8. kick

[TruthIsAll]

9. Bush will get 47% MAX... Kerry gets 52% MIN...

That is my best prediction - right now.