I Expect A Few More " California's In Play" Like Polls Before This

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Election Is Over...

There's a new quinnipiac poll at www.realclearpolitics.com that has NJ in a dead heat...


A few things to keep in mind...


Kerry leads by four or five among registered voters....


There's no party id breakdown


It's contradicted by other polls....


Bush's bounce for visiting will wear off... There have been studies where candidates can temporarily move numbers just by visiting an area...


This is the biggest point... Although we were burned in 00 and I am sure the data will support me it's difficult to win the pop vote by a point or so and lose the EC vote...

[Jersey Devil]

1. RV = LV in NJ this year - huge turnout predicted

Our largest turnout was in 1992 with 82% voting. From what I have seen on the ground here in NJ the turnout may even be larger. Last night at local hdq we had 3 repubs drop in for Kerry signs if that give you any indication. NJ is NOT in play. Here are the polls that have been done in NJ so far.

Kerry by 8% New Jersey 41-49-0-(4.5) 10/13 - 10/21 Fairleigh Dickinson University
Kerry by 8% " 43-51-n-(3.8) 10/16 - 10/18 SurveyUSA
Kerry by 10% " 38-48-3-(3.5) 10/14 - 10/17 Eagleton-Rutgers
Kerry by 4% " 45-49-1-(2.9) 10/14 - 10/17 Quinnipiac University
Kerry by 2% " 42-44-2-(4.5) 10/8 - 10/14 Fairleigh Dickinson University
Kerry by 5% " 43-48-n-(4.5) 10/7 - 10/11 Fairleigh Dickinson University
Kerry by 8% " 41-49-n-(4.5) 10/1 - 10/6 Fairleigh Dickinson University
Kerry by 7% " 40-47-1-(3.8) 10/1 - 10/6 Eagleton-Rutgers
Kerry by 9% " 44-53-n-(5) 9/26 - 10/10 Rasmussen Reports
Kerry by 3% " 46-49-2-(3.4) 10/1 - 10/4 Quinnipiac University
Kerry by 5% " 45-50-n-(3.8) 10/1 - 10/3 SurveyUSA
Kerry by 8% " 42-50-2-(4) 10/1 Research 2000
Kerry by 1% " 44-45-1-(4.5) 9/23 - 9/28 Fairleigh Dickinson University
Kerry by 3% " 46-49-n-(5) 9/12 - 9/25 Rasmussen Reports
Kerry by 4% " 43-47-3-(3.2) 9/16 - 9/19 Quinnipiac University
Kerry by 8% " 42-50-1-(4) 9/13 - 9/16 American Research Group
Bush by 4% " 49-45-n-(3.7) 9/12 - 9/14 SurveyUSA
Kerry by 4% " 39-43-5-(3.7) 9/3 - 9/7 Eagleton-Rutgers
Kerry by 4% " 46-50-n-(5) 8/21 - 9/3 Rasmussen Reports
Kerry by 10% " 39-49-4-(3.3) 8/19 - 8/23 Quinnipiac University
Kerry by 11% " 41-52-2-(4) 8/18 - 8/19 Research 2000
Kerry by 8% " 43-51-n-(5) 8/1 - 8/26 Rasmussen Reports
Kerry by 20% " 32-52-3-(4) 7/30 - 8/4 Eagleton-Rutgers
Kerry by 13% " 36-49-6-(3.1) 7/30 - 8/2 Quinnipiac University
Kerry by 10% " 40-50-n-(4) 7/26 - 7/28 Research 2000
Kerry by 1% " 41-42-6-(3.5) 7/20 - 7/26 Fairleigh Dickinson University
Kerry by 13% " 38-51-n-(5) 7/1 - 7/31 Rasmussen Reports
Kerry by 6% " 40-46-7-(2.9) 6/15 - 6/20 Quinnipiac University
Kerry by 10% " 41-51-n-(5) 6/1 - 6/30 Rasmussen Reports
Kerry by 12% " 39-51-n-(5) 5/1 - 5/31 Rasmussen Reports
Kerry by 3% " 43-46-5-(2.9) 5/10 - 5/16 Quinnipiac University
Kerry by 9% " 40-49-n-(4) 4/28 - 5/4 Eagleton-Rutgers
Kerry by 12% " 39-51-n-(4.5) 4/20 Rasmussen Reports
Bush by 4% " 48-44-5-(3.5) 4/3 - 4/10 Fairleigh Dickinson University
Kerry by 15.8% " 40.3-56.1-3 2000 Bush vs Gore