Electoral College Predictions coming togetther

[Nicholas_J]

Real Clear Politics, a conservative site, has the curent Count with Bush at 234 EV, Kerr at 228, the colsest this site has had them.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Election Projection, as the race even 269-269

http://www.electionprojection.com/



Electoral Vote.com has the race Kerry 254 Bush 274

http://www.electoral-vote.com


Rasmussen has the race at Kerry 207, Bush 222

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm


None of these sites has been updated fo a numbe of polls that now have Kerry in the lead in Florida, PA,and Ohio (ARG and SUSA).

And pretty much all of these sites is rather selective in updating its caculations by the polls they include.

There are something like 33 combinations possible this election that could result in an electoral tie.

[Selwynn]

1. So Kerry is winning in none of them, and yet...

..we all act like its so obvious he is going to win the election?

[trotsky]

5. Considering RCP's 2000 projection vs. actual results...

I'd say it's a pretty fair assumption.

http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.html

November 6, 2000
Final RCP Electoral College Analysis: Bush 446 Gore 92
Bush 51.2 Gore 41.9 Nader 5.8

"The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush
will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media's fantasy of
Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going
happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win
in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

[montana500]

13. most of those are right wing sites

go to electoral-vote.com and click on the final predictor. ;)

go to race2004.net

[montana500]

15. grrr

latest arg polls:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/


Bush Kerry Nader DK Oct

Florida 46% 49% 1% 4% 23-25

Ohio 47% 49% * 4% 23-25

Pennsylvania 47% 50% * 3% 23-25



latest SUSA polls:

[montana500]

17. susa

Fl 50 kerry-48

Ohio 50 kerry - 47


PA 53 Kerry - 44 Bush

[0007]

21. You've noticed that too?

[Selwynn]

22. Nice!

[lancdem]

20. They all have it as a tight race, which it is

Turnout will determine who wins, and I'm optimistic about our chances.

[TruthIsAll]

24. The Election Model is updated as of today: Kerry 319 EV.

Bush is stuck below his 47% ceiling. Link to graph #1.

Kerry will do better than 319. That assumes he gets 60% of the undecided; he should get 67-75%.

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/

[soleft]

2. I like this site a lot for electorial predictions

You can format the data how you want it, and it has Kerry at 287.

http://www.nowchannel.com/trend/

[Fluffdaddy]

3. Turn out...................baby

[NewYorkerfromMass]

4. Your report yesterday convinced me we will win Florida

and inspired this map:



Ohio seems to be going our way too. The ballot shenanigans are being headed off there as well. The big win for us there was the allownace of provisional ballots no matter if the county or precinct cast was wrong.

[kostya]

9. Please provide a link for OH ruling on prov. ballots

I thought the court rulings actually said they still had to cast the provisional ballot in the correct county/precinct. Was there a subsequent reversal of that? - K

[NewYorkerfromMass]

18. As long as you go to the precinct in which you live

but there is better news: SOS Blackwell has ordered ballots to be counted even where a "challenge" to a voter is successful....

http://www.wcpo.com/news/2004/local/10/26/provisional_ballots.html

[demokatgurrl]

19. I wish I shared your optimism.

[kostya]

6. race2004.net K 273 B 265 Also, check out Prof. Wang's site

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

He projects K 309 to B 229 if undecideds break, as they traditionally do, 2:1 for the challenger.

Kerry On,

K

[D-Notice]

7. If you go to the predicted final results

on ElectoralVote.com it gives it to Kerry 288-250.

The 254-274 is based on the current opinion polls...

[prodigal_green]

8. check electoral-vote.com's

Predicted Final result (3rd column, 3rd row). Shows Kerry ahead.

[Nicholas_J]

10. Yes, this is only a breakdown of electoral vote.com

as a snapshot for today. They have not updated the site for state changes over to Kerry that were released Today, like Zogby, SUSA and ARG.,all of which have given Kerry a sufficient lead to put Kerry over the top in electtoral votes. Just 4 days ago, electoral bote. com had Kerry leading with 274 electoral votes. Rasmussen relys on his own polls and does not average in others,and had Kerry at 190 electoral votes yesterday.

Robert Silvey, has Kerry winning this week, has not updates his poll since last Thursday.

The trends are that Kerry is showing more momentum thatn BUsh, as he is moving forward in most state polls, while BUsh is not.

[kostya]

11. I take electoral-vote.com with a big grain of salt since

he recently changed methodology to include only one recent poll for each state. The others usually average a few recent polls.

[Nicholas_J]

12. What is funny is that ABC is now doing a poll of Early voters

(Using Gallops methodology) and coms up with Bush winning aomng early voters, however, actual numbers from states shows the opposite, with Kerry ahead in a number of places where the votes have actually been counted so far and divided up.

[prodigal_green]

14. Somebody posted a map yesterday

of the states that allow early voting. Almost all of them are red states with three or four electoral votes. So yeah, I would imagine the popular vote at this point, before the Northeast, the West Coast and the Upper Midwest are counted in would be trending Bush.

[Nicholas_J]

25. Yeah and its odd that in some of those Red States

Kerry is actually outdoing Bush. Nevada is close, but through yesterday, there were still about three percent more votes for Kerry than Bush.

In Eight of Florida's most Republican counties, Democrats make up a greater percentage of the total early vote than their actual percentage of registered voters in thowe counties would reflect, while Republicans have not voted as heavily as their numbers would suggest.

In every place they have looked <Democrats are coming out in larger numbers compared to Republicans

[fishwax]

27. That was actually his original methodology

In September or October he started averaging polls, but he said a lot of people complained and so he went back to using only the most recent poll after just a couple of days.

[Fed Up]

16. Gag! My kid's history teacher brings up electoral-vote.com every day.

Couple that with Channel One News, and the brainwashing is complete.

[Clinton Crusader]

23. Zogby has FL and OH in the * column for days...

wish they'd change that. :mad:

:kick:

[Snivi Yllom]

26. thanks

interesting that theya re all neutral. Out of their way to be neutral almost.Hmmmmmmmmmmmm.