New ARG Polls - yes, POLLS!!! - IA, WI, OR

[PSU84]

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

------------Bush Kerry Nader DK Oct

Iowa----- 48% 47% 1% 4% 25-27

Wisconsin 47% 48% 1% 4% 25-27

Oregon--- 46% 50% * 4% 25-27

[DemFromMem]

1. If Nader gets 4% anywhere, I'll eat my hat

[KansDem]

6. I think that's the percentage for "Don't Know..."

It looks like Nader is getting 1%...

[DemFromMem]

20. Whoops, you're right!

It was a bit tough to read.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. But, Fox "News" says that the race is still tied and that....

Kerry is trying to get some "badly needed" traction!

:silly:

(this is a sarcastic post)

[cubsfan forever]

14. LOL Yes, and the Titanic just

hit a small patch of ice!

Professor 2

[blackcat77]

22. That's the new Pubbie talking point

Buchanan was going through the same thing last night on Scarborough's show.

I see one candidate who has a glass ceiling at 48. And it ain't Kerry...

[PaDem]

3. Nader in the Upper Midwest concerns me

if only he had endorsed Kerry.

[benddem]

4. Zogby has

Kerry much further ahead in Oregon. Don't know about the rest of the states.

[merh]

18. Folks who hate the * but won't vote for Kerry will vote Nadar`

He will hurt repukes more than dems. imho (afterall, repukes are funding him! ;-) )

[cubsfan forever]

5. No way Nader gets 4% in Iowa

Not happening.

Professor 2

[PSU84]

7. It doesnt say Nader gets 4%

It says Nader 1% and Undecided 4%.

[cubsfan forever]

15. Thanks!

I see that now. That chart reminds me of the FL butterfly ballots.

Professor 2

[KansDem]

17. self deleted

[politicaholic]

8. These are great numbers! Is this a non-partisan site?

[PSU84]

12. Yes.

American Research Group is one of the best polling companies. At state-level polls, no one is better.

[Stuckinthebush]

9. Mark my words...

We will take Iowa.

[Bucky]

10. Wisconsin makes me happy, but Iowa makes me cry

[DaveinMD]

19. 1 percent is a poll

with a moe of 3 points makes you cry? I really don't get it.

[lancdem]

24. Yes, any state Kerry is tied in he'll win

because of undecideds.

[DaveinMD]

25. its not only the undecideds

its the larger than usual turnout.

[htuttle]

11. Nader was polling at about 6% in Wisconsin in Oct. 2000

He ended up with about 3-4%, and that's ONLY because he was running on the Green Party ticket (votes were to get the Green Party permanent ballot status). At the last minute, a lot of Nader voters switched to Gore.

This year, without the Green Party, I'll be surprised if he breaks 2% in Wisconsin. I'm expecting closer to 1% or less.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

13. I don't see Bush breaking 48 in any battleground or national poll

can you say "ceiling"?

[LuminousX]

16. I just won't be comfortable

until I see Kerry over Bush consistently in these polls. This was how I felt in 2000 when the polls were forcing a horserace mentality.

[PSU84]

21. Some people will be happy

to see that Dennis Kucinich is doing so well in these polls.... ;-)



(DK = "Don't know" in case you DK.)

[DuaneBidoux]

23. YES With 4% Undecided these are great numbers!

[bush equals idiot]

26. The explosives disaster

has not had time to be reflected in the polls yet either.