ZOGBY 48-48 White House Race a Dead Heat - Reuters Poll

[jezebel]

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=electionsNews&storyID=6667676

Kerry and Bush were deadlocked at 48 percent in the latest three-day national tracking poll, which included one day of polling taken after the airing of a videotape from Osama bin Laden. Kerry led Bush 47-46 percent on Saturday.
Each man has consolidated his own base," pollster John Zogby said.

"Bush has good leads in the red states, among investors, and among Republicans, born-again Christians, men and married voters," he said. "Kerry has a solid lead in the blue states and trumps Bush among young voters, African Americans, Hispanics, Democrats, women, union voters and singles."

Bush earned a positive job performance rating from 46 percent and a negative rating from 53 percent.

The Massachusetts senator had a 51-41 percent edge among newly registered voters, an unpredictable group that could be a wild card on Tuesday depending on how many actually turn out to vote.
At this stage of the disputed 2000 election, Bush led Gore by two points in the daily tracking poll.

Kerry had the lead on Saturday in six of 10 battleground states being polled separately, but Bush expanded his lead to five percentage points in the showdown state of Ohio.

[rjbny62]

1. NICE - 2 point gain for Kerry

[TrueAmerican]

2. huh?

are you sure?

[StopThief]

3. Ummmm. . . . .

That's a one point loss from yesterday.

[jezebel]

4. No, it's a 1 point uptick for Kerry and a 2 point uptick for Bush. But

Kerry lost the lead.

[StopThief]

6. Or. . . .

Kerry lost a one point lead.

[helpisontheway]

5. Well, it could be

a lot worse considering that wild card of a tape. I will take a tie. Especially since Bush is under 50%. However, the 2% undecided does worry me.....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. A One Point Move In A Poll With A 2.9 MOE Is Probably Noise

Noise=variance within the margin of error...

And don't forget rounding...

[regnaD kciN]

11. No, actually, it's a (relative) one-point loss...

You must be comparing it to the Zogby results from several days ago. Yesterday, Kerry led by 47-46. So, if you want to be strict about it, Kerry picked up one point and Bush picked up two.

Now, I assume I don't need to point out that the two candidates have been hovering within one or two points of each other all week. With a MOE of +- 2.9%, the fluctuation can be chalked up to the randomness inherent in all polling, and all that can really be said is that it's "too close to call."

If you want to take it as more than that, and assume the 48-48 results are 100% accurate, there is good news and bad news to derive from that:

GOOD: There's no sign of a massive post-ObL break to Bush. If this poll's results are mirrored in others to be released later today, any G.O.P. hopes that Osama would cause a substantial break to Bush remain unfulfilled.

BAD: Although the race may be tied, the fact that both candidates have picked up (or, as Zogby put it, "consolidated") support means that there are only a few (2% according to this poll) undecideds left, which means that the fabled "undecideds break to the challenger" phenomenon, even if it takes place, may not mean a whole lot. If Bush and Kerry were tied at 46%, with Nader and assorted third-partyites at 2% combined, and undecideds at 6%, the trend of 2/3s of these voters going toward the challenger would mean a 50%-48% edge for Kerry. OTOH, if it's 48%-48% with only 2% undecided, a similar break would only give Kerry a 49.3% to 48.7% lead, which is way too far within the MOE to be statistically significant.

BOTTOM LINE: As if it wasn't already obvious, this race is coming down to the wire in a virtual tie. Everything, and I mean everything, is going to depend on relative voter turnout, and which party is more effective in GOTV efforts.

[unfrigginreal]

7. Challenger 48% Incumbent 48%

I'll take it every time the challenger is on our side.

[Was_Immer]

8. It means Shrub had a good day since its a rolling poll

He might be up tomorrow. But then again maybe Kerry had a great day yesterday and he'll be up tomorrow.

ANYHOW its right where we want to be, dead even!

[WI_DEM]

14. It says that Kerry was up 1-point in their polling yesterday (Sat)

which is the first full day after the OBL tape.

[mvd]

10. Last Saturday was a great day for Bush

It doesn't look like this Saturday was that good for him, so I'll take it as a positive. Gore was down by 2 at this stage in 2000.

[regnaD kciN]

12. One thing which should be kept in mind...

...is that this is either a poll of "likely voters" or "likely voters + leaners" (where those undecided are pressed to make a choice as if they didn't have the option of remaining undecided). Zogby runs one of each type of poll every day, and it isn't clear which this one was. For example, yesterday's polls were either tied at 46% (LV) or Kerry 47%-46% (LV+L).

Whichever it is, it is still a poll of likely voters in some form or other. And, while Zogby hasn't been known for the odd formulas in determining likely voters that some other polls have been known for, I still assume that it is not counting those who haven't voted before...and Zogby's own report on today's polling has that group at 51%-41% Kerry, which he describes as a "wild card." If, as I very strongly suspect, they are not being counted, that could add another point or two to Kerry's current standing.

[NJCher]

13. Zogby called it for Kerry

....the other night on Jon Stewart.

Stewart asked him if he were on another show, would he call it for bush. He said no.




Cher