crap... it's gonna boil down to Florida again...

[Dookus]

I've been playing for hours with the electoral map, and dammit, it's gonna be settled in Florida.

The good news is if Kerry wins Florida early, we know he wins. If he loses, there are still many combinations he can win with.

But damn, I wish we could safely put Iowa and Wisconsin in the Dem slot.

[sandnsea]

1. Go ahead with Iowa

Des Moines Register polled Kerry today and it's almost always called Iowa right. 3 point lead for Kerry, if I recall. Wisconsin, who knows. Real wild card. I'm thinking Ohio is going to be the fight though, because the Pubs are just tricky that way.

[incapsulated]

2. You shouldn't play with those things...

They're dangerous!

Maybe Florida, maybe Ohio... we will know very soon. It's either gonna be decisive or... other.

[Julien Sorel]

3. There are several scenarios where Kerry wins without winning

Florida. All he needs to do is hold the basic Gore states plus win either Florida or Ohio, and then he can essentially "swap" New Hampshire for the small Gore state of choice -- Iowa or New Mexico, for example.

[Dookus]

6. I know

I've played with them all. But when I take what I really feel in my heart Kerry will win, against what I really feel Bush will win, it still ends up with Florida as the deciding state.

[R3dD0g]

4. I don't know about Iowa, it may be bad news up there.

But, this is hopeful.
http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000896.php

But, that WI poll showing what 8%, is just crap. I don't know how Gallup can show their face with trash like that coming from them. Do, they think that their only business is pulling * through this? What have they been promised for tilting their polls SO badly?

[pabloseb]

10. Wisonsin numbers are wild

Gallup has the chimp up 8%, but Zogby has Kerry up 7%. They're both probably outliers, and it'll come down to turnout.

One thing to keep in mind is that although in 2000 WI was very close, Nader got 3.6% of the vote, and this time he's polling at 1%. Many of those Nader votes will go to Kerry.

[David Dunham]

5. I predict we win FL, IA, and WI

[Dookus]

8. I think we look good for Florida.

and Iowa and Wisconsin are sketchy.

That being said... if we win Florida handily, then it's an electoral landslide for Kerry. I just want a cushion.

[fujiyama]

7. Yeah it sure seems like it doesn't it?

Early voting is good so far from what I've heard. I hope the turnout on election day is good too.

Ohio seems to be all over. Gallup says Kerry's ahead but then again I'm not sure if I trust them.

Zogby says Bush is ahead in OH.

Then another has it tied.

They both agree that Kerry has a slight lead though.

As for IA and WI, Kerry's been doin better in both in the last few days. I think he'll take 'em both.

[aquart]

22. The voting is great but Jeb is a criminal.

Give me a win scenario without Florida, I'm begging you.

[wtmusic]

9. Florida looks great...check this:

http://www.dmregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041030/NEWS09/41030009/1001&lead=1

[Dookus]

11. cool

but you and I both know there's no consensus for Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa and possibly Michigan. I think Michigan is ours. I think Ohio is totally unpredictable. Wisconsion and Iowa are neck-and-neck. But if we win Florida, we have a HUGE comfort zone. Without it, we need everything else.

[jfern]

12. I don't think so

Kerry can win without Florida.
Wisconsin and Ohio does it.
But we should still fight for Florida.

[Dookus]

14. yes

I said in the OP that Kerry can win many ways without Florida. But....


Ohio and Wisconsin and Iowa aren't safely in our slot. I suspect two of them will go our way, but I don't know which ones. With Florida, we're safe.

Without Florida, we need to sweep a bunch of northern midwest states, and I'm not confident we will.

All this being said, I am basing this on current polls. I expect Kerry will do MUCH better than current polling in the battleground states. But once we can assure Florida, we have a whole lot of play. Without it, it's tenuous.

[jfern]

18. This wins it for Kerry

Ohio + Wisconsin + Minnesota + New Hampshire + Pennsylvania

(plus of course the lean/safe Kerry states)

[regnaD kciN]

13. Watch what you hope for...

The good news is if Kerry wins Florida early, we know he wins.

If you remember last time, Gore "won Florida early," then the projections were withdrawn about an hour later. You all know what happened then.

Personally, I suspect that no news will be good news concerning Florida Tuesday night. The only way I see the networks making an early call is if it's for Bush. If Kerry's leading, they'll be extra-cautious about making any projections until the results are so clear-cut there can't be another "surprise."

Besides, even if Florida goes for Kerry with a margin no one can question, that would only mean that he will win if all predictions about other states with later poll closing times pan out. In other words, even if we get Florida and Ohio (and Pennsylvania and Michigan and Minnesota and Wisconsin), Kerry won't cross the 270 barrier until California and the other west coast states close at around 11:00 P.M. E.S.T. Given some combinations of victories in battleground states for each side, we might not even know who won until Hawaii reports...which I believe is well past midnight on the East Coast.

So, if/when Kerry wins, we won't know for sure until quite late Tuesday night, if not Wednesday morning. And, of course, that's not taking into account any Republican court challenges in states they lose, so we may well have another few weeks of uncertainty even after that.

[Dookus]

15. Of course you're right

I don't disagree.

My point specifically was that Florida will be decisive. I disagree with you that there won't be a quick answer from Florida - I think it won't be as close as last time. If Kerry wins FL (and I think he will), we win the election. I already give him PA and the conventional wisdom was the candidate who wins two out of three of FL, PA and OH wins.

I honestly think Kerry will have a large electoral victory, as long as he wins Florida. If he wins FL, it means he wins a lot of the other states - MI, WI, IA, ....

[Stinky The Clown]

16. If you keep playing with that thing

yer gunna grow hair on yer palms

[Dookus]

17. heheh

... I know.

I'm already half-blind. But I'm just playing around with the polls and the maps. I'm not a newbie at this... I suspect it's gonna come down to Florida again.

I may well be wrong... but this is my hunch.

[Razoor]

19. what electoral map you messing with?

whats the link? I been looking for a map that you can click and turn it from blue to red

[VOX]

20. The L.A. Times has a terrific interactive EV map...

You can click on all the states, switch them at will, and get poll info when you just drag your cursor over each state.

You have to register with the LAT, though -- but it's free, and well worth it.

http://www.latimes.com/

[ahem]

21. You can use bugmenot to avoid the registration...

http://bugmenot.com/

[Lexingtonian]

23. Ohio-itis, I take it

I admit to more faith in the overall Ohio polling. And, in my experience trying to correct for modelling and sampling errors in the published polls, the Democracy Corps claim looks quite correct: almost no one, anywhere, has changed their minds in the past two weeks. The variations between October 15 and October 30 are statistical fluctuations. Almost all states fit very tightly to the numbers Gore got plus regional rates of Democratic trend over the four years same as or better than during the 1990s after 1994. The exceptions appear to be in the eastern Rust Belt and Southwest- where Democrats did much better,

The weekend polls have been pretty erratic (Kerry support off by MOE everywhere from his baseline, Bush over his) compared to those during mid-week, which strongly fit to the Gore+trend split in most of the states. I find I need 4-5 good pollings to actually see what the real baseline and soft support range is.

So, I consider myself satisfied by the midweek pollings of Ohio (50-47) and Wisconsin (50-46) and Iowa (48-47-1) and New Mexico (48-48) as fitting Gore+trend- you have to use the Incumbent Rule- and more or less Kerry's to lose. Florida has been Kerry's to lose since the first pollings this year, in March and April, where he was up 48-45 and better.

I like to think that polling in the Southwest has generally been inadequate, with the actuality being just about every state tied or with a 1-2% Bush margin around the 47% mark- as ARG tends to poll them, and almost no one else. Both campaigns supposedly discovered that ads and PR weren't doing much for them in the Southwest during the summer- winning is said to be all in GOTV in all four states.