GALLUP oversampled Repubs Again! And KERRY is TIED!!!

[liberalpragmatist]

From blogger The Left Coaster (http://www.theleftcoaster.com)

... take a look at the composition of the LV and RV samples by party ID that Gallup used last night in their poll. I just got the internals from Gallup, and the LV sample they used had a 5% GOP advantage over the Democrats, and Kerry still almost tied Bush.

1573 Likely Voters
1559 In Sample
Bush Leads Kerry 49%-47%

GOP: 624 (40%)
Ind: 389 (25%)
Dem: 546 (35%)

When compared to the 2000 exit poll results, Gallup under sampled Democrats by 4% and over sampled Republicans by 5%, a nifty 9% swing. If the sample was reweighted to more closely follow the 2000 exit poll party ID breakdown of 39% Dem/35% GOP/26% Ind, can you imagine what kind of lead Kerry would have?

As for the registered voter numbers, the sample last night was this:

2014 Registered Voters
1988 In Sample
Kerry leads 48%-46%

GOP: 732 (36.8%)
Ind: 550 (27.6%)
Dem: 706 (35.5%)

They under sampled Democrats in both of their LV and RV samples, possibly far below what we'll see tomorrow and what we've already seen in early voting, and Kerry still cut a 5% deficit amongst LVs down to 2% last night.

[Anaxamander]

This means

we're going to have a LOT of fun on Tuesday night! :evilgrin:

[AIJ Alom]

1. holy cow ! the landslide is coming ! the landslide is coming ! GOTV !!!

GET OUT THAT VOTE PEEPS !!! :D

[skordane]

3. Question About Sampling?

I see it in your post. Disregard.

[liberalpragmatist]

6. Democrats by 4

I can't remember the actual figures. I want to say something like 38% Dem, 34% Republican, but I honestly can't remember for sure.

[trogdor]

2. Doing the corrective math.

35/40 * 49 = 43 for Bush
39/35 * 47 = 52 for Kerry

[David__77]

4. Please. Everyone call people you know and get everyone mobilized.

This is great battle for the sake of the nation and world.

[liberalpragmatist]

5. deleted post

n't

[Goldmund]

7. I saw that earlier

And opened an FR account, and started a thread: "Does anybody have the GOP/Dem demographic split from the last Gallup poll? I'm wondering if they oversampled Dems to manufacture a Kerry 'surge'".

I went out to smoke a ciggie, and by the time I was back, I was tombstoned, er, ZOTted.

[lanparty]

8. I don't think it matters ...

2000 followed the old pattern of declining voter turnout. The pollsters have ZERO data by which to weight their data correctly!!!

I think Zogby did some type of polling of cell-phone users. But he doens't have their numbers. So he must have called their home phones and screened for land/cell users. He simply DOES NOT have a sample of land line only users to pull from!!!!

In the future, they are going to have to resort to email polling. People are just becoming so voracious about telling unsolicited callers to buzz-off!!!! It's no longer considered rude to just HANG UP, or tell the to piss off!!!!

[rocktivity]

9. Creating the illusion of a dead heat serves several purposes

The obvious ones are: maintaining viewership for the mainstream media, which in turn keeps their ratings up; and making it easier to demand recounts which could in turn steal the election.

I've theorized that the pollsters have been threatened with the loss of future GOP business if the numbers don't go their way. They're not non-profit organizations, and it would certainly explain Zogby's flip-flopping. The easiest way to do that and still be able to "truthfully" say their polls aren't rigged is to oversample. Well, here's another theory I came up with last night.

While channel surfing, I stayed at a Bush rally long enough to hear Barb Junior (she's the brunette, right?) say that she'd hear her father shouting at the TV at the "unfair" things being said about him. It's been said he lives in a dissent-free "bubble," and Bush himself has said he doesn't read the news. What if the secondary purpose of "Operation Dead Heat" is to prevent Bush from melting down at the sight of negative poll numbers?

:headbang:
rockantion

[sonicx]

10. Gallup's a joke. CNN and USAToday would be best to dump them.