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Larry Sabato predicts a Kerry victory.

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Euphen Donating Member (209 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 07:00 PM
Original message
Larry Sabato predicts a Kerry victory.
"As we conclude this amazing election campaign, we have just one question for our readers: When has an incumbent candidate ever won when he is tied with his challenger on election eve? The answer is never--at least in the age of polling that began in the 1930s. So George W. Bush needs to beat history, and the polls, to win the election tomorrow. It is possible that the vagaries of the Electoral College will enable Bush to eke out a victory, and it is also possible that the Republican Party's get out the vote effort will equal or exceed the Democrats' GOTV efforts. But if the Democrats are even half-right about the potential of their GOTV in producing additional new voters, then Kerry will win, perhaps more comfortably than anyone now suspects."

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2004110101
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DemocratSinceBirth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 07:05 PM
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1. kick...
good threads drop like a stone and some clown pimping his own website showing Bush winning the EC by forty votes remains kicked...
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MO_Dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 07:08 PM
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2. President Kerrry
in a landslide!
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progressivejazz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 07:19 PM
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3. Sounds good to me (n/t)
.
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shawmut Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 07:20 PM
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4. I'm feelin' it
Edited on Mon Nov-01-04 07:20 PM by slim
:bounce:
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Steelangel Donating Member (731 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 07:21 PM
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5. cheers, thanks for posting.
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RafterMan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 07:26 PM
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6. He's a bit cheeky though -- he calls a tie!
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 07:27 PM
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7. Sabato is usually pretty conservative
So this is pretty good news!
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DeepModem Mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Nov-01-04 09:51 PM
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8. Well, Sabato has never gone out of his way to be kind to our side --
so this is encouraging.
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