Will having skipped Iowa hurt the Clark campaign in NH?

[Padraig18]

As we now see, it's fairly likely that Sen. Kerry will 'get his tricket punched' in Iowa, as will Sen. Edwards. Will their post-Iowa 'bounces' hurt Gen. Clark in NH?

[JI7]

1. lieberman skipped iowa also

.

[Padraig18]

2. I know.

:hi:

[curse10]

26. but we all know Lieberman has a snowball's chance in hell of winning

Clark is actually a viable candidate. And I do think it will hurt him. I know he dropped a few notches on my list because he wasn't there, then didn't show for the debates. He could have atleast shown for the debates.

[arewethereyet]

3. Noone expected it to be this interesting

there is so much focus and drama in the heartland that there is no room for other interest.

This has become the big dance despite the best analysis going in.

[KittyWampus]

4. You Mean Rising In The Polls To Second Place Was Bad?

Clark has to come in a strong third.

The blogs I read indicated there would be a bump for the Iowa Candidates the weekend before the Caucus (this past weekend) and that bump would be short lived.

Clark's rise in the polls in NH had much to do with the fact many people heard and saw him and liked what they saw. SOME of his rise was Name Recogition.

Also, I'm sure that Clark strategists have had time to organize and lay the ground work for the coming week which other cnadidates have not had.

[returnable]

5. "Hurt"? Nah.

Skipping Iowa has pretty much given Clark the chance to succeed in NH. We have no idea where he'd be in the polls if he had split his time between the two states.

A second- or third-place finish in NH is pretty much a triumph for a man who was polling in single digits there as recently as last month.

But I know what you're saying though - Clark grasp on second has taken a hit with Kerry's rebound.

We'll see how it all plays out - after all, as we've seen with Iowa, one week can make all the difference :hi:

[Padraig18]

6. A week can be a lifetime, in politics.

That's why the nationwide voter-preference polls are interesting factiods, but little else, IMO.

[Lobo_13]

10. Especially a week

where Kerry and Edwards will be concentrating on the lobbying background of everybody's favorite General.

[cally]

7. Clark would not be where he is in NH

if he had also campaigned in Iowa. Staying out kept him out of the nastiness of Iowa and also allowed many NH voters to meet Clark and get to know him. It was a wise decision to skip Iowa.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

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[KittyWampus]

11. Yes, Clark Has Great Organizations in 49 States

money, endoresments, volunteers.

Just had to skip Iowa.

Too bad he didn't have to bow to the God of "Ethanol".

Hopefully Clark wins and Iowa becomes only as relevant as the other 49 states.

[End Evil]

12. The talk is

that Gephardt and Edwards are going to get together and throw their votes to Edwards. Then, Gephardt will drop out.

This is because of the bizarre nature of the Iowa caucuses.

You all do realize that after they meet, listen to speeches, listen to letters from the candidates; they then vote.

After that, they meet to divide 'the spoils'.

Strange...

[Wonco_the_Sane]

9. Have they heard of Iowa in NH??

:) :) :)


Long way to go, and a lot could happen. Skipping any state is bad of course, but hitting all of them takes $$$$$$$. Anyone know how much money Clark has buy the way? Just asking cuz he's not an established politico..

[Padraig18]

13. Interesting.

as of now (9:55 a.m., CST) it's a 40, 51, 9 split. Hmmm...:)

[Padraig18]

14. Kick

:dem:

[SheilaT]

15. No. It was the smart thing to do.

I am absolutely not a fan or supporter of Clark, but given his late entry in the race, it was wise of him to concentrate in places where he seems to stand a reasonable chance of picking up delegates.

In the end, the candidate with the most delegates at the DNC will be our nominee. I'm honestly not certain how many are at stake in either Iowa or New Hampshire, but each state is just a start.

And don't forget the Super Delegates, Governors, Congressmen, Senators, and so on who will matter tremendously in the end.

May the best man (my preferred candidate of course!) win, and may the Democrat win in November.

[rucky]

16. The momentum is shifting & Clark is missing out on the excitement

If Dean were still the clear frontrunner, it wouldn't matter as much. But if Kerry or Edwards pull a suprise victory, they will be dubbed the next media darling. Something Clark is missing out on by not being there.

Of course, if Clark wins NH & SC, that could change things. But now he's competing with more than one frontrunner.

[Cuban_Liberal]

17. Yes, it will

I see this as a major miscalculation by the Clark campaign; everyone says 'we couldn't have known that iowa would be so dramatic, etc.', but that's just the point--- you don't skip out anywhere if you are a serious, national candidate. This is a major blunder, and I look for Kerry and Edwards to both start peeling votes off of the Clark campaign like the layers of an onion.

[End Evil]

18. With all due respect,

I disagree. Do you realize what the caucuses really are?

However, your final statement works for me. Kerry could definitely beat Bush, I think. Edwards would have a tougher time, but I don't think 2004 is his year. In 8 years, he'll still only be 58...

[Cuban_Liberal]

19. Yes, I'm familiar with the caucuses.

We lived in Des Moines until I was 16. :)

[arewethereyet]

21. the caucusses are how Iowans select their delegates

as the primary is how NH folks choose theirs. I don't get the question.

[JohnKleeb]

20. If Kerry does well in Iowa or Edwards

Then you better believe it.

[KittyWampus]

27. Why? A Four Way Race Would Have Been A Five Way Race

although I doubt Edwards could have/can stand up next to Clark or Kerry for long.

[rucky]

28. About a week ago, it was a one-way race.

with clark a comfortable second, nationally. what changed that is IOWA - not NH.

[Cuban_Liberal]

29. I wouldn't bet the rent that Edwards can't stand up to Clark.

A lot of Clark people are giving Edwards a second look, and Edwards nullifies Clark's "Southern advantage" quite nicely. :)

[knight_of_the_star]

22. No

He isn't planning on winning it in Iowa. He's focusing more on NH and Super Tuesday. He's planning to win in the long haul, not in a knockout punch, which can be done.

[Cuban_Liberal]

23. Maybe.

I dopn't agree, obviously, because I see it as a major blunder. It's one reason i broke with his campaign.

[w13rd0]

24. Not having a "Clark" option to vote for...

...I was at a loss as to how to vote.

[BeyondGeography]

25. Clark did well to skip it

The only caveat is that if he had emerged as a top contender to Dean in the last week, but it still would have been a mad scramble to get the traction he already has in NH.

Clark is new to politics and to primary voters. He was wise to focus his name recognition-building efforts in an environment that he has essentially had to himself for most of the past month. He would have been just another Dean alternative in Iowa, competing with Gephardt, Edwards and Kerry. In NH, it's between Clark and Kerry. Much cleaner, much better for Clark.

He has also gotten a lot of media coverage in NH at the national level that he would not have received in Iowa. Some of this has been of the attack-dog variety because of his rise in the polls, but that was going to come anyway.

[Cuban_Liberal]

30. Kick