An IA win?

[Lobo_13]

Under normal circumstances, an IA win can either catapult a strong candidate or crush one.

Will an IA win mean as much if the difference between 1st and 4th place is 2% or less?

And conversely, will a fourth place finish with that close a margin really be a fatal blow to a candidate?

[Lobo_13]

1. kick n/t

[Lobo_13]

2. kick #2

I'll keep kicking until I get some comments.

[Lobo_13]

3. Did you think I wasn't serious? n/t

[Lobo_13]

4. I'll show you

you'll see.

Kick

[Lobo_13]

5. another kick n/t

[dfong63]

6. imho it could make a big difference

... depending on people's expectations, as fuelled by the media over months of campaigning. Gep was initially expected to win big. if he doesn't win, or if he wins only by a small margin, he'll be hurt. then Dean was the front-runner for awhile. if he doesn't come in at least a close 2nd, i think it'll look bad. by the same token, Kerry and Edwards don't have to "win" in order to look good, because people's expectations were lower.

[Lobo_13]

9. my point is

that if a fourth place finish is so close to a first place finish, will it really hurt a candidate.

And have the surges of Kerry and Edwards been publicized enough to make their placings likely, therefore lowering expectations?

I think a close four way finish will only hurt Gep. He's poured everything into this state so he has no fallback position.

Dean can definitely soldier on after this and just outrun the rest of the pack because Kerry and Edwards might not have enough time to keep the fund-raising at pace with the expenditures.

I just think that when the difference between first and last is an point or two, nobody loses big. Especially since the coverage has been favoring this kind of race.

[not systems]

7. I think a four way statistical tie would...

add more interest from press.

People could get in to the horse race aspect
and might be the best thing that could happen
because the coverage could suck the air out
of the room for the SOU.

There could be four tickets out of Iowa if it is close enough.

[jmaier]

8. If Gephardt falls

anything less than a strong 2nd, he goes away and the tickets coming from IA are Dean, Edwards, Kerry.

If Kerry wins IA then I believe he'll surge to a narrow win or very strong 2nd in NH. After that, I don't know where he goes. Probably okay in DE but he should camp out in AZ and NM and play the Veteran card in those two states.

Edwards should skip NH unless he's a good 2nd in IA and play SC for all that it's worth. He can't make many appearances in Feb 3 states following IA and 2 solid weeks in SC could give him the winner's edge there.

Dean pretty much keeps on keeping on regardless of IA and NH outcomes because he has the money, the organization and a solid base of supporters.

In Wes Clark's case, he's well positioned in quite a few places on Feb 3rd (OK, SC, AZ, NM) so his strategy doesn't change much. A very strong NH showing for him just ups his numbers in those key Feb 3rd states were he is probably poised for #1 or #2.

It remains a pretty interesting race until Super Tuesday imo.

[Lobo_13]

10. I'm not asking for predictions

I'm wondering in the abstract if a four way race with a point or two separating 1st from 4th will be as much of a body blow or catapult to the people involved.

[jmaier]

11. Ok

I think it would hurt Dean marginally but no lasting damage. It boosts Kerry and Edwards, especially Edwards. It doesn't hurt Gephardt directly but it leaves him with no solid bounce which he would desperately need for additional fundraising and gains in SC, for instance.

Better? :-)

[Lobo_13]

14. much better

thanks.

[poskonig]

12. Winning matters.

The winners get winners questions from the media whores, e.g. "what did you do right" while losers naturally get losers questions. Edwards might be an exception, since his expectations are so low. Dean and Gephardt have high expectations, however.

Any candidate who gets fourth is toast.

Gephardt needs a 1st place finish, or he is toast.

Dean needs a 1st place finish, or he will be damaged moving ahead.

Kerry needs a 1st place finish, or Clark will get the anti-Dean mantle.

Edwards can probably get away with any position besides 4th.

[BootinUp]

13. If none of the candidates

can get a clear win, my opinion is it doesn't really help anybody that much. But that may not be how the media spins it. It has to show Dean as being weak, having all the money and supporters on the ground and then to be in a 4 way tie.