Mr. Dean's superior organization and unsurpassed campaign treasury could still help him salvage a first-place showing in the unpredictable caucuses. But Iowa already has changed the race by denting the aura of inevitability that once surrounded the former Vermont governor. Signs that his hard-edged, antiwar message is hitting a ceiling have breathed new life into the campaigns of his challengers as they turn their focus toward the primary contests that lie beyond this Midwestern launching point.
(snip)
Iowa's caucuses also can be very hard to predict. The format requires Democrats to show up at their local precincts for at least two hours and publicly declare their preferences. It favors the candidate with the best organization and the most dedicated followers.
Mr. Dean, who has been carefully building an Internet-driven network for nearly a year, appears far stronger by that measure than Messrs. Kerry or Edwards. Over the weekend, 2,000 Dean volunteers from around the U.S. descended on Iowa to make calls and knock on doors, sporting bright orange "Grassroots for Dean" knit caps. Only Mr. Gephardt -- backed by a large bloc of industrial unions -- can match the scale of Mr. Dean's voter drive.
Moreover, Mr. Dean made two moves Sunday, after the Register poll had been completed, that could boost his support before the vote. He took a quick trip to Georgia to meet with former President Carter, who stopped short of an endorsement but praised Mr. Dean's "courageous and outspoken" stands. Later in the day, Mr. Dean was joined in Iowa for the first time by his wife, whose absence until now has deprived his campaign of the personal touch that has aided other candidates.
(snip)
"Dean and Gephardt have locked up their base, but they haven't grown it," Iowa's Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack said of the campaign's fluid finish. "Kerry makes people feel safe and secure, and Edwards has run a positive, optimistic campaign." Mr. Vilsack has stayed neutral in the race, though his wife endorsed Mr. Kerry, a decorated Vietnam veteran and member of the Senate since 1985. Hopeful Kerry backers have summed up the endgame in Iowa with buttons and bumper stickers saying: "Dated Dean, Married Kerry."
(snip)
Some Iowa Democrats, in fact, say Mr. Dean's bluster reminds them too much of the swaggering president he loves to blast and makes them uneasy about both men. "He frightens me," said Bonnie Cummings, 43, who joined about 40 neighbors at a shed on her uncle's farm in Adel one weekday to meet Mr. Kerry. "Dean acts too much like Bush."
(snip)
was disappointed Mr. Dean didn't say anything during his speech about what he'd do now in Baghdad, and Ms. Blom said she felt the veteran Massachusetts legislator would be better equipped to respond. Mr. Dean, she said, "should address the here and now of Iraq, not the shouldn't have."
The reconsideration of Mr. Dean has been balanced by a willingness to give second looks to Sens. Kerry and Edwards, both of whom have endured far less public scrutiny and criticism than Mr. Dean.
(snip)
"Don't just go there to send America a message," he tells potential caucus-goers at virtually every stop, in a subtle slap at Mr. Dean. "Go there to send America a president of the United States." Some voters now seem more willing to pay attention to Mr. Kerry's long Washington resume, comparing it with Mr. Dean's dozen years as governor of one of the smallest states in the country.
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