Gary Hart's On CNN Now- Without The Monkey Business He Beats Papa Bush In

[DemocratSinceBirth]

88

[President Jesus]

1. quite easily. Damn monkey bidness.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. He Was A Better Than Average Campaigner And A Really Bright Guy...

He was the prohibitive favorite in 88 to win the nomination.... He was my first choice in 84 by a mile...

[Julien Sorel]

3. I think he would have lost.

The economy was too strong, Reaganism was too popular, and Hart lacked appeal in the South, just as Dukakis did. He would have done better than Dukakis, and the whole riding around in the tank thing that's still part of the Democratic tapestry in the public's mind wouldn't have happened, but I still think he would have lost. He'd have dropped states in the northeast that Dukakis carried, and picked up Colorado and what else? He was the right candidate at the right time, but it still doesn't mean a win.

[flaminbats]

4. that depends on what kind of campaign he would had run..

if he focused on the same themes Clinton did in 92 he would of kicked Reagan's ass!

Reaganism was only popular with neocons, not with most voters. Reagan only won in 1980 because voters blamed Carter for the recession, and in 1984 only because of the strong economy. Dukakis had a 20% lead over Bush after the convention, he lost this lead only because of the Willie Horton ads and his sucky campaign. Kerry didn't have any lead after the 2004 convention..but almost won, mainly because he ran a far better campaign than Dukakis or Gore.

[Julien Sorel]

6. Post-convention leads are often illusory.

Bush led Gore by quite a bit after his convention, but the lead was erased, yet I used to read here what a terrible campaign Gore ran. Nowadays, I hear what a terrible campaign Kerry ran, but that's a minor detour.

At any rate, to a large degree elections are decided by things outside the campaign itself, mainly the economy. Just as you said Reagan won against Carter in 1980 because of a poor economy, and won in 84 because of a good economy, Bush I had an advantage in 1988 because he was inheriting the Reagan economy. Hart would have been a huge improvement over Dukakis because he was a centrist, but he would still have been battling uphill.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Don't Like This Centrist-Leftist Dichotomy...

The battle is between pragmatists and idealogues....



I doubt Evan Bayh sees the world all that differently from Dennis Kucinich but one has a much better idea of what the American people will embrace....

[Julien Sorel]

9. OK.

Hart's foreign policy expertise, hawkish views, and middle-of-the-road domestic approach made him more pragmatic than Dukakis.

[flaminbats]

10. I didn't know you were a Kucinich supporter!! n/t

:wow:

[flaminbats]

8. nobody inherits an economy, Gore didn't in 2000..nor did Nixon in 1960

one final point, if either Hart or Dukakis had won in just the states Kerry or Gore did..both would have won majorities in the Selectoral College. I also believe if Kerry had been our nominee in 2000 he would be President today!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. Nixon Did Inherit An Economy...

There were three recessions under Ike...

I respect Ike but I must note that Republicans are good at causing recessions.....


As for Gore he also inherited Clinton's blow job....

[Julien Sorel]

12. Not sure what to say.

If you think no one inherits an economy, you should have a chat with all the electoral vote modelers. They have equations that assign values based on the state of the economy and which party was in power. Maybe they should take those terms of their equations out.

[flaminbats]

13. I love hypothetical discussions..

but none of this proves Hart couldn't win in 1988. Hart would of had more to running mates to choose from than Kerry in the south. If Hart had picked Sam Nunn, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, or even Bob Graham he would of won in enough southern states to be President.

But who really cares? even proving Hart could of won doesn't help us now! :eyes:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Hart-Nunn-That's The Ticket...

Gary Hart would have been a great president...

[Julien Sorel]

15. It's impossible to say for sure Hart would or wouldn't have won.

It's impossible to say for sure he would even have been an improvement over Dukakis. It's all speculation.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. I Disagree

Gary Hart would have held all the Dukakis states and he also would have won Cali.... He's now at around 200 EC votes...

He was a neoliberal westerner not a paleoliberal northeasterner like the Duke...


He would have made it a race, perhaps stealing a southern state or two...

[KSAtheist]

16. Maybe.

I do know that Dukakis ran the Worst Campaign Ever.

I also know that Bush could coast on Reagan's fumes, which were pretty strong.