I think the dems could pick up Lugar's seat in Indiana

[wankawanka]

i was at this thing last night down town and it sounds like lugar might retire. I think Kernen could run and stand a good chance to win that seat.

i just thought you guys might want to know this

[liberalpragmatist]

1. I dunno if Lugar will retire or if Kernan could win

I don't think Kernan would be interested anyway.

Former Rep. Baron Hill would probably have the best shot although he just lost reelection, so who knows? Otherwise Roemer might be a good option, as might Former Lt. Gov. Davis.

But while Indiana tends to be okay to Democrats in statewide races, I think that may not really be the case for a few years. The Democrats held the governor's mansion for 16 years and I think the Republicans will dominate for sometime - my guess is Republican gubernatorial control for at least 8 years, maybe 12. Bayh should be able to serve for awhile though.

[shraby]

2. Let's face it,

no Dems are going to be picking up any more seats in any state.

[gulogulo]

14. Ahhhh the power of positive thinking. n/t

[salin]

23. Peterson

has the support of central indiana money donors (who are traditional republicans - but have backed centrist democrats for years... as they distrust the more radical repubs that have often risen through the primiaries in the past 10-12 years.) Am in contact with folks in this circle - they backed Mitch - not due to his bush creds - but with amnesia for his dc days - and an eye to his tenure at Lilly where he is perceived (by the Indy monied folks) to have been a pragmatic business leader.

These folks don't know Hill... and Kernan will now be viewed (by them) as damaged goods. Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, however, is very well respected.

I do some work with Peterson and his administration - they are way better than Bayh and his folks. I'd support him in a minute.

[liberalpragmatist]

24. Peterson also said he wouldn't do a statewide until his daughter grew up

I know exactly the people you were talking about. I went to school with a number of their children.

However, I thought Peterson said no statewide run until his daughter is out of high school. His daugher was three years below me at school, so I guess she'd be a senior that year. I don't know.

[salin]

27. Hadn't heard the "no statewide run".... but it is consistent

with what I know about him. Perhaps the statement came in the days just after then-Lt Gov Kernan announced he wouldn't run for Governor (about 6-8 months before Gov O'Bannon passed away). There was immediate speculation in this crowd about Peterson - and from one particular bigwig there was concern... not that Peterson would run (as in - a dem would win)... but that Peterson would leave being Mayor... and I quote "He is needed here..." This group wasn't terribly fond of the state of the city as it was left by Goldsmith. Peterson had no interest at the time, and was gearing up, I believe for his re-election... which, as you know, helped to sweep the first ever dem majority onto the city county council. Point being, if the comment was made at that time... I would take it in context of a way of signaling to the powers that be not to waste time on speculating about his getting into that gov. race. I would be surprised if he didn't, by now, have bigger aspirations - and the ONLY place to go - is Congress (think Carson's health) or Lugar's seat should he retire.

[liberalpragmatist]

33. Makes sense

You're right that he could make a good candidate and he's a good guy, I've met him a few times.

[LiberalFighter]

44. Peterson sounds like the only Democrat stands a chance of replacing Lugar

[LiberalFighter]

43. Radical Repubs such as??

Eric Miller?
David McIntosh?

How about Dan Burton?
Mark Souder?

[salin]

53. Don't know much about Souder - but all of the others

are seen as extremists by the gop power elite (eg old time monied folks) and would not get the support of the $$ centrist repubs (who swing dem from time to time) who abandoned McIntosh, and Miller in statewide runs. If the choice was burton... watch some of these folks start throwing $ at alternatives.

[LiberalFighter]

55. Trust me... Souder is a wacko

More so than Burton
Somewhat like Miller in his religious zeal with a twist on the drugs

[LiberalFighter]

45. How is Peterson better than Bayh?

Who would be good candidates for Governor in 2008?

Who is waiting in line for Carson's seat?

[salin]

54. No idea who is waiting in line for Carson's seat.

But Peterson, while centrist like Bayh, has not lurched to the right as Bayh has done over the past 4 years - AND he is much more intellectually agile and policy literate than Bayh. On a personal level he doesn't strike the chord of perpetual opportunist as so many politicians do these days (esp Bayh.)

[dolstein]

3. Kernen just lost a statewide race, didn't he?

That doesn't exactly bode well for him. Perhaps Lee Hamilton will consider running, though I doubt it.

In any event, pretty much any Democrat who'd have a shot at winning the seat would be unacceptably moderate to the vast majority of DU'ers. Evan Bayh's about as popular around here as Joe Lieberman.

[DaveinMD]

4. so what

that doesn't have much bearing on the outcome of such an election.

[JohnKleeb]

8. While I am no fan of Bayh

I think if we get the right candidiate in Indiana and yes he'd have to be a moderate, I think we could win that seat, only if Lugar retires of course, because Lugar is quite popular.

[IndianaGreen]

9. Kernan lost because Kerry ran so badly in Indiana

Kerry ran worse in Indiana than Gore or Clinton, and that despite Kerry carrying Marion County (Indianapolis), the first Democrat to do so since LBJ.

[JI7]

15. it didn't stop Evan Bayh from winning

[IndianaGreen]

16. Bayh had no real opposition

and the Hoosier repukes love Bayh far more than progressives do.

[JI7]

20. the progressives didn't vote for Bayh ?

[salin]

28. they did

but I think IG's point was that Bayh's healthy win (and the reason no serious repub runs against him... heck a sitting senator suddenly announced retirement from the senate when he knew Bayh was going to run) is due to vast moderate repub support in the state that adds to the rest of the votes.

But IG is correct - one is hard pressed to find progressives in the two cities in which I spend time (bloomington and indianapolis) who are big fans of Bayh - lots of skepticism. He actually has a lot of wiggle room in Indiana due to his popularity and his lurch right of center on many issues after 2000 (further right than he had been as governor or during his first two years in the senate) is recognized as NOT being driven by the "what do you expect of a dem in a red state" sentiment to which only outsiders attribute it (the lurch)... and is seen to be, instead, pandering opportunism with an eye on national office. The reality here is that if he were to piss off conservatives, then the part of the GOP that does primaries that is religious right gets emboldened and wins the primary.. and all the big (moderate) repub money goes to Bayh (as it has for years)... the backers (money) in Indiana politics always runs in the opposite direction when a radical republican is running for statewide office. Hence, during the Mitch run - he ran as a business man and moderated his language on some fav rad right positions (even being somewhat toned down on the GOP gay-marraige rhetoric).

Indiana politics - at the statewide level - is not quite what it appears from the outside looking in.

[IndianaGreen]

36. Mitch Daniels told the GOP to forget it about a gay marriage ban amendment

I thought that was very clever of him to tell the Republicans in the General Assembly to not to push for a gay marriage ban amendment.

The problem with Bayh is that once he went to Washington and started to drink the Beltway water, he became a DINO.

[IndianaGreen]

35. I didn't, and I wasn't alone!

I rather vote for a Libertarian (or any non-Fascist third party) than for a prowar, anti-choice, anti-gay rights DINO like Bayh.

[liberalpragmatist]

25. Could Kerry winning Marion Co. mean Indiana may be in reach in future?

If Marion is going the way of such established suburban counties like Fairfax in Northern Virginia, etc, then maybe if the Democratic Party can figure out how to win rural voters Indiana *MIGHT* be in reach in a few cycles with the right candidate (and I don't just mean with Bayh)?

Incidentally, didn't Mark Warner grow up in Indiana as well? So if he's the '08 nominee might he do okay?

I think Sen. Maria Cantwell of Washington grew up in Indiana as well. She went to Manual High School.

It does seem like all the famous Hoosiers leave the state.

[IndianaGreen]

38. I think that a candidate like Wes Clark could have carried Indiana

and, at a minimum, helped Kernan defeat Daniels for governor.

[LiberalFighter]

46. IF the Marion County was the same as it was 20 years ago then yes

BUT it isn't

Marion County hasn't become more Democratic because the Republicans have switched to the Democratic Party.

Marion County has become more Democratic because many of the Republicans have moved to the surrounding counties. I remember that the Indy Star did a piece on it and referred to it as the doughnut effect or something like that. The hole being Marion County and the surrounding counties as the doughnut.

[AntiCoup2K4]

47. You want Cantwell back?

It's alright, really. Take her, please.

[wankawanka]

5. kernen lost to a very popular mitch dainels

daniels was already up and going even before kernen became governor

kernen lost with a job approval rating over 50
so i think he would have a chance

[LiberalFighter]

10. There may be a few factors that would have to be considered

First... how much Bitch Daniels screws up. And whether Bayh has control of the State Party. Supposedly that was why Kernan announced that he wasn't running for Governor. Personally, I don't believe that Bayh should have that much say in who is running the State Party when we had a Governor at the time.


Maybe Kernan will run for Gov in 2008. This time with both guns shooting.

I don't think he and his wife want to move to DC.

[IndianaGreen]

12. Daniels was the corrupt lobbyist for Eli Lilly

who used inside information to dump a utility's stock. Daniels should be sharing a cell with Martha Steward.

[Indiana_Dem]

6. Sorry to be nit-picky but it's "Kernan"....

and I don't think he'd be interested at this point.

There is somebody from the Greens who is going to try and run for Secretary of State in Indiana for the first time (a Green) on the ballot in Indiana. I thought that sounded positive. They are working on getting the person's signature's for petition already.

[DaveinMD]

7. oh goody

because Dems have such great success already. Siphoning off votes to a third party will hurt the Republicans so much.

[Indiana_Dem]

22. Look, I became precinct chairman and campaigned

for the first full local Democratic county ticket for years, and the Kernan-Davis campaign, and the Donnelly campaign, and much more....and not one of them won except for Bayh. I never did anything before this year. Dems hardly ever win around here.

Here's Lugar's Environmental record:
http://www.capwiz.com/lcv/dbq/vote_info/?command=results&sort=District&azip=46947&bzip=&submit.x=9&submit.y=13

I'm telling you Kernan is more interested in starting up his baseball team than running right now.

A Green for a seat would be fine with me, especially if there is no Dem running, and the Republican is unopposed.

The way SOME of the Dem congresspeople have been voting on bills lately, it makes me wonder where their interests lie, with we the people or the corporations. I've been following the politcians mroe closely in the past year, and I don't want to just vote the party line if they are not going to work in my best interests. One thing I'm happy with the Greens is regarding the election fraud and recount process. It seems anymore we're having to jumpstart the DNC to do anything we want them to do. Am I wrong here? I don't want to just be like the Republicans and vote the party line no matter if it's in my best interests or not!

If there would be a Dem that would run for the Senate that I felt would vote in my country's best interests then I will vote for them. I'm just saying a Green is the next best thing, they have more to gain and less to lose. They HAVE to prove themselves since they aren't sitting in the two main party seats. They have to mean what they say and say what they mean. Know what I mean?

[Metatron]

42. You are exactly right about Kernan wanting to go back to baseball.

Had Gov. O'Bannon not died in office, Kernan would never have run. I can't imagine that he would have any interest in any other office.

[LiberalFighter]

48. From what I understand Kernan was intending to run for Gov the first time

but he wasn't happy with certain individual(s) and wasn't able to have them removed when O'Bannon was still alive. It apparently was a political powerbroker that refused to have certain individual(s) removed and Kernan was not going to associate himself with them in a run for Gov. If he had Kernan would had lost the election worse than he did.

[LostInAnomie]

11. I don't know

Bitch Daniels did have the jump on Kernan and a VERY well financed campaign but I not sure Kernan could win a Senate seat. Lugar would have to retire during a year where a republican doesn't have any presidential coat tails to ride. I don't know who the Repukes would run, possibly Hostettler the gun toting, super fundie.

It's possible I guess.

One good thing about Lugar is that he is an old school Republican who does not like what * was doing to the country.

[IndianaGreen]

13. GOP could run Chocola

Darth Vader's evil twin!

[wankawanka]

19. or mike pence

[salin]

29. Problem with much of the repub congressmen

is that they are perceived to be too far right for the centrist monied GOP that funds statewide races. Run Hostettler, or Bouyer against a well respected centrist dem ... the money will either stay out of the race all together, or will go to the dem if too much conservative out of state money go to the repub candidate.

Mitch was more widely supported than McIntosh before him, because my man "*&tch" was perceived to have been a sound businessmsan (ya, right... but that was the belief) with good sense, rather than a far right wacko as Mc was viewed by the stalwart money givers in their party.

Put Baron Hill against a Hostettler - and my money would be that the money (and likely the race) would flow to Hill - even though he isn't well known outside of his former district. However, due to redistricting during his run as congressman - more folks in the southern part of the state are familiar with him.

[blackangrydem]

17. I could see Lugar as a possible replacement for Rumsfeld

in a few weeks.

[wankawanka]

18. you might be right

[Hippo_Tron]

26. That would be a GOOD THING

It's a damn shame that Kernan lost the governorship because we can't appoint a dem senator.

[IStriker]

30. Why do you think that is a possibility?

I can see Lugar at the state dept., but I can't imagine Bush would put him at the pentagon. Bush has some plan for changing the military and I don't think he would trust Lugar to implement it since he's been pretty negative about Rumsfeld and Bush as far as the military is concerned.

[salin]

31. He has been too critical of bushco since BEFORE the war vote

was working on amendments to restrain the administration.

In the end he always votes like a good GOP soldier - but he does inflict some damage with his public ruminations before falling in line. They wouldn't pick him.

[blackangrydem]

52. I think Bush would have to respect Lugar's expertise and

credibility. I'm sure he considered him the first time around.

[marieaey]

39. Lugar may have a chance.

I think this is a very likely possibility. Republican centrists are very unhappy with the current situation in Iraq. Lugar is an old school Republican and a member of a rare breed of honest men in Washington. That's why Lugar can criticize Bush and get away with it. Lugar is about the most respected Senator on the hill. He has more integrity in his pinky fingertip then a dozen clones of Bush would have in all their combined bodies. Bush has been very careful not to rebuke Lugar. It would be like rebuking Santa Claus. Getting Lugar on board would quiet many centered Republicans who are concerned about Bush's wild ideas. Lugar has the skills to make a difference in Iraq.

I don't consider myself to be a progressive I am a Democrat that swings left of center. I have a pretty good feel for Indiana politics. Indy is very metro now. And probably the reason it swung for Kerry. The rest of Indiana is full of small towns and bustling cities. We have a decent amount of farms and manufacturing. The majority of people here will vote center for either party. Swing to far left and we won't have a chance of getting a Dem in. Right now I feel it's important for folks to understand that we are in a battle to get seats in the WH. I want to win . We still have a hand because it takes 60 votes to pass anything in the Senate so the right will pander to our moderates but most won't bite. They won't be interested in placing any feathers in Bush's cap.

marie

[IndianaGreen]

40. Lugar would make a good symbolic replacement for Rumsfeld

I must caution you that it has been decades since Lugar ever managed anything, the last time he did so was as Indianapolis Mayor, and his tenure was controversial at that!

The ideal replacement for Rumsfeld would be someone like John McCain, someone that will fire all of the neocon scums that are in the Pentagon. I don't see that happening! I think that Bill Kristol's call for Rummy's head was an attempt to protect the other Pentagon neocons, not a call for reform.

[Chicago Democrat]

21. yay! Dems

go for it!

Watch out for the KKK bro!

[IndyOp]

32. Fidlar/MicroVote are moving into Indiana -

No more Dems on state/national level... except Bayh, and possibly other Dems, who will do as they are told.

:puke:

[LiberalFighter]

49. Fidlar has been in Allen County and Marion County for years

Fidlar has been in Allen County since at least the early 90's if not before.

[wankawanka]

34. i dont think hill would have a chance he lost in monroe county

[infusionman]

37. What we really need is...

Strong support to remove Rick Sanitorium from office here in Pennsylvania in 2006.

He and his ultra conservative views have gone too far IMO.

If we are not careful, he could even run for Resident.

[Jim Lane]

41. Shameless plug for Demopedia

Is there a reason people are ignoring Demopedia? Look at this thread as an example -- it has some interesting information about Indiana politicians whom I (a New Yorker) had never heard of. Nevertheless, it will soon suffer the fate mentioned in that box at the top of the page: "Tired of collecting research on the DU Discussion Board, only to see it lost forever as it drops into the archives?"

The Demopedia article on Lugar (http://www.democraticunderground.com/demopedia/index.php/Richard_Lugar) says that he's a Republican Senator from Indiana. That's it. There are no Demopedia articles on the other possible candidates mentioned. To make your life easy, I've set them up as links. Just click on one and start typing:

Mitch Daniels: http://www.democraticunderground.com/demopedia/index.php?title=Mitch_Daniels&action=edit <br>
Joe Kernan: http://www.democraticunderground.com/demopedia/index.php?title=Joe_Kernan&action=edit <br>
Bart Peterson: http://www.democraticunderground.com/demopedia/index.php?title=Bart_Peterson&action=edit <br>

That way, the relevant information will be available to others as we head into the 2006 campaign season.

You don't need to do the perfect article. Other people can add more information or fix your mistakes. (The underlying principle of a wiki arises from "Linus's law" in the Open Source software movement: "Given enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow.")

This thread will soon be lost. Think of Demopedia as the kick that keeps on kicking. :)

It isn't just Indiana, of course. This happens to be the example that caught my eye. More broadly, there's a huge amount of information on the Forums that could usefully go into Demopedia. So far, though, the level of participation there has been low. If I were running DU, I'd be tempted to scrap the project if it doesn't attract more people.

[infusionman]

50. Hi

Kick

[infusionman]

51. Hi

Kick again