Survey USA: Casey 49 Santorum 42

[Tony_FLADEM]

<http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45925278-98fe-4060-b496-b4dfbaf01f7c>

[NewJeffCT]

1. great news, but it's still way too early

The Republican mud machine hasn't been fully cranked up yet.

[WI_DEM]

2. looking at the stats I can't believe that Santorum would get

23% of the African-American vote.

[DemocracyInaction]

3. Did you see who they want to run for Govenor in Pennsylvania??

Saw in Time that the repubs are wanting Lynn (sp.?) Swann, the football player to run and he has a committee out exploring it. Said with football mania in PA right now they think he could be Rendell and that it will help Santorum. Amazing how they love to run "stars"------all that is needed in that party is to get elected and then sit back and take orders from corporate America. Anyway, how do you think the people would respond to Swann??---will we have another Arnold takeover???

[WI_DEM]

4. Republicans are very adept at running "stars"

Rendell would probably have a tough fight on his hand if he did do it. It potentially could split off crucial African-American votes that Democrats need to to win especially in the big cities.

[autorank]

58. I'm forming a "Democrats for Shannon Tweed" Committee...any takers.

[LynneSin]

7. Ed Rendell does Eagles Post Game shows for Comcast

So that would pretty much neuter Lynn Swann in the Philadeplhia area. I think with Casey & Rendell running together as a team, each person's strength would help the other person's weakness. Casey is strong with Catholics and Western PA whereas Rendell pulls in strong numbers in the Philadelphia region. (in his primary race against casey, they had voter turnout in the Philly area that resembled the numbers you'd get for a presidental election).

Repukes are starting to pull "Arnolds" with this using of celebrities to run for office. Lynn Swann knows shit about how to run Pennsylvania but he doesn't need to know. Instead he would just tow the neo-conservative line fed to him.

They've already done polls on Rendell vs. Swann and found that although Swann did best from the other potential repuke candidates he was still 10 points behind Rendell.

[LetsGoMurphys]

51. lynn swann was

behind kerry if i recall?

[One Taste]

70. No

You're probably thinking of Franco Harris.

[Frances]

5. Statistics by age category

Casey leads Santorum by 13 points in the 18-34 age group and by 14 points in the 65+ group. They are almost equal in the 35-64 age group.

I am only guessing, but I think the Iraq war (potential draft, college tuition hikes, and the job situation must be influencing the 18-34 group while social security is influencing the 65+ group.

Looking at the Swann/Rendell match up, I see a large male/female gap with males very much in Swann's column. On the other hand, Rendell leads in every age group but the 35-49.

Anyone else want to speculate?

[LynneSin]

8. Nope, you're wrong there: Swann was a Pittsburgh Steeler...

..which won't hold any water whatsoever in the Philadephia Region. Plus Gov. Rendell was part of the Philadelphia Eagles post game show this year which will help keep the Eagles fan base voting for Ed.

Ed is way too popular in the Philadelphia region. Repukes tried running Joe Paterno's son (Joe is the legendary football coach of Penn State University) against Democrat Tim Holden in a region that is strongly republican. Scott got his ass whooped by Holden.

I don't think Swann stands a chance.

[blue neen]

47. I agree. I don't think Swann stands a chance, either,

and I'm from Pittsburgh. He has NOT been getting much support in Western PA, either. People here see him for what he is, a repuke who happened to be a football player. He has absolutely no experience.

[sidwill]

6. Good news but.....

The pukes haven't yet begun to smear the guy. It will be a harder sell to smear him because of his Abortion stance but I'm sure we are just weeks away from a full blown Osama loves Casey poster campaign.

[dpbrown]

9. How many activists are going to door-knock for anti-choice Casey?

If the Democrats think they're going to beat Santorum by out-Republicanizing him, they've got another think coming.

[Mandate My Ass]

10. Check out Casey's other "pro-life" stances here:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/2/16/145554/259

The War in Iraq A statement by Bob Casey Jr. right after the invasion:


Auditor General Bob Casey Jr. rallied local Rotarians Wednesday, urging them to continue supporting President Bush and the war in Iraq.
"There will be plenty of time to debate this war in the weeks and months ahead," Casey said during the gathering at the Farm and Home Center. "But this is not about policy; this is not about ideology. This is about winning a war."


Casey, who believes abortion should only be allowed if the mother's life is in danger, isn't shy about his pro-life convictions.
At a debate sponsored by the Democratic Women's Caucus, Casey said that if the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and the Pennsylvania General Assembly passed a bill to ban abortion except in cases of rape or incest or to save the life of the mother, he would sign it, adding that "everyone here knows I'm pro-life."

What is your position on repealing the death penalty in Pennsylvania?
Casey (D): Oppose.


We ran another anti-choice, pro-gun dem against him in 2000 and Santorum beat him, so you see we're going with the tried and true method here.

[dpbrown]

12. That's what happens when the same loser consultants keep making the call

Until the Democrats embrace populism and quit trying to split hairs with the Republicans on loser hate and inequity issues like abortion, they won't be able to beat bigots like Santorum.

[LetsGoMurphys]

52. dont dare

compare bob casey to ron klink..please

[mdguss]

11. You're an ignorant if you think Casey's a Republican-lite Dem:

Pro-fair trade, pro-raising the minimum wage (not the Santorum version of that), pro-union, pro-education, pro-environment, pro-access to higher education, pro-senior.

He has a record of accomplishment in Pennsylvania. He is well liked by the Pennsylvania Democratic Party because he took on Tom Ridge--and won--on several issues.

Good guy, would be a good Senator.

[dpbrown]

13. Beating up on me doesn't make Casey look any more like a Democrat

And the question was whether or not activists would door-knock for an anti-choice candidate to beat an anti-choice candidate.

They won't.

Last time the Democrats tried to out-pander Santorum with the hate-choice and love-war crowd and it didn't work.

It won't work if they try it again, either.

[mdguss]

14. You're not a Democrat if you think Casey and Santorum are the same:

And frankly that's doing Rick's work for him. Become a little bit informed before you start bashing a good Democrat like Casey. Try to look beyond one issue. By the way Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat with medicore resources, got 53% of the vote in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary in 2000. Kink was running against 2 pro-choice Democrats. His campaign was not funded by the national party (because of his views on abortions), and we got 6 more years of Santorum. Despite being outspent 5 to 1, Klink only lost 52-47. Casey will be much better funded, and he will beat Santorum. A pro-choice Democrat (other than Rendell) has not been elected to statewide office in Pennsylvania since Roe.

Casey's truly pro-life. It's a moral choice. I happen to agree with him. Get over it. He'd still be a good Senator. And he still is a Democrat--more so than the orthodoxy that thinks that anybody who doesn't match what they believe 100% isn't really a Democrat. If you've those problems with candidates, run for office. There is no such thing as a perfect candidate. Casey is a darned good one though.

It's Casey vs. Santorum. I'm with Casey all the way on this one. Every other Democrat that cares about social security, trade, the environment, the minimum wage, and oversight of the federal government, should be with Casey too. Sadly some people are letting one single issue cloud their judgment.

[Mandate My Ass]

16. If you support war and the death penalty

you are truly anti-woman, not truly pro-life. Actually I find a great deal of moral ambiguity in his positions on which life is worthwhile and which isn't.

[iconoclastNYC]

17. Not pro-life, anti-choice

Very few people think like begins at conception, yet everyone calls peopl who want the government meddling in your private medical decisions, pro-life. Its not about life. It's about medical choice. Look at any other issue, and it's plain how little these anti-choice people care about life. WE MUST FRAME THE DEBATE CORRECTLY.

[mdguss]

19. I'm pro-life:

Essentially abortions are making the innocent (children who could be adopted) die for the actions/mistakes of consenting adults who performed a legal act. I think abortions on demand are wrong. There's no way around it in my mind: abortions as birth control are immoral.

That said, I think it's a moral choice. Good minds will differ on the issue.

[Mandate My Ass]

20. "I think it's a moral choice."

How very nice it is to have a choice, don't you think?

N.B. Just calling something moral does not make it so. I'm very comfortable with the morality of my pro-choice stance. Very.

[w4rma]

21. You can be pro-life and pro-choice. I am pro-choice/pro-life.

Making abortions illegal will just send the enterprise underground and will enable more totalitarianism and control over regular Americans into our country.

I'm pro-life not because I'm anti-choice, but because I support using public programs to curtail the desire/need to have an abortion: Women's health, Adoption, Anti-poverty, Sexual education.

I am also anti-death penalty, anti-war of choice, anti-poverty, pro-environment.

[canberra]

59. that's my view as well

I also think that the best thing you can do to reduce the rate of abortions is to have a strong economy. So women don't feel they have to have an abortion out of economic necessity.

This administration just doesn't realise that while talking about being anti-abortion they have just caused more abortions by its mishandling of the economy, budget deficits and the war in Iraq.

[Arugula Latte]

30. What about women who made the "mistake" of being raped?

[dpbrown]

33. Accusing me of not being a Democrat isn't going to make Casey one

And you're the one who is missing the point.

Activists won't doorknock for an anti-choice candidate like Casey who doesn't differ from Santorum on an issue they care about.

Come out of your DLC cocoon once in a while and you'll see an America craving a return to populism, not one tied up in knots over how not to offend Republican purveyors of hateful policies of inequity and oppression.

Whether Casey beats Santorum or not, Democrats will be ill-served by running a panderer to female oppression against an anti-choice homophobe.

[mdguss]

41. Casey IS a populist:

Look at his record, Casey is a populist.

[dpbrown]

63. A record that says "War Good, Choice Bad" is not a populist record

Trying to find a candidate who will siphon away people who would normally vote for the homophobe Santorum, given that Democrats seem willing to compromise their own credibility by finding a different "fear and hate" issue, is a recipe for long-term disaster.

Running a candidate who is willing to pander to, rather than expose, the FUD message the Republicans hawk about abortion rights, denigrates the Democratic core message of equality and fairness that is going to be the populist message that ultimately turns back the tide of Republican gains.

[Crowdance]

64. Bully boys deciding who's a Dem, what is moral

If Casey represents your way of thinking, we surely don't need him in the Senate. You're not doing your boy any good here; you oughta' take this somewhere else. Reading what you've been writing motivated me to write a check to Pennacchio. I hope he can save PA.

[mdguss]

71. I will never be intimidated by people like you:

Abortion is morally wrong. But I'm not a Republican because I believe that government can be a tool to help people. Be uninformed, only talk to those who agree with you, and enjoy a life time of losing elections.

You can write a check to whomever you want. But in November 2006, I'll be celebrating a victory by Bob Casey over Rick Santorum.

All people who post stuff like this should read, "Thinking of Jackasses," an article in the April 2006 Atlantic Monthly. It's spot on it its criticism of adhering to an orthodoxy and surronding yourself only with like minded people.

I will not shut up. I will remain a pro-life Democrat. And I will continue to fight the fringe of pro-choice Democrats who seek to exclude rather than include people from the party over one issue. The party isn't, never has been and never should be about one issue.

[Crowdance]

72. Um, you are the one de-listing dems

Me, I delisted myself. But I wouldn't DREAM of telling someone else they're not a Dem.

And I have no doubt you won't shut up. You didn't even have to say it.

[mdguss]

73. Read this and other threads:

There's a common theme for a small group of pro-choice extremists, "You cannot be a Democrat if you are pro-life," it's been said or implied on multiple occassions.

[David Dunham]

25. Dislike of Santorum will motivate PA Democrats for Casey

[dpbrown]

37. If there's so much dislike, you could run a better Democrat

And still win.

Pandering to the female oppression crowd and the uterine-slavery-supporting haters isn't going to make the Democrats any stronger.

[LetsGoMurphys]

55. name

one..they will lose. casey is the only one who can win. he'd be my choice anyway, however.

[Old and In the Way]

46. It's all about majority control.

Do we really expect to find the perfect cookie-cutter candidates in every state? Ain't gonna happen. And by whose definition of "good" Democrat do we use? Is there a master list of issue positions that I can refer to to determine the "Democraticness" of a candidate? {not that this wouldn't be a good idea to help us rate our candidates in primary elections, though}

I can live with a pro-life Dem in a Democratic majority, as opposed to a pro-choice Democrat in a Republican majority. In the former, our agenda is served; in the latter, the Republican agenda is served.

[LetsGoMurphys]

54. in the words of fast eddie rendell

if you want to be against him for one issue, then get used to bein the minority party. people that do not vote for him over santorum deserve every single thing they have comin to them.

[LetsGoMurphys]

53. basically

all the things i care about

[w4rma]

15. With the sole exception of that issue, I have a very good feeling about

Casey. Abortion is not a litmus test to being a Democrat.

[sidwill]

18. At this point

I'll take almost anybody who can pick us up a seat in the Senate.

Without the majority there we are lost, we can't stop the right wing agaenda and we can't investigate the Bushgang.

So lets argue and fight like hell in the primary but then all be good little indians and fall in line for Casey vs Santorum.

Santorum?

Is there anybody more wingnutty than this assclown in the senate? I think not, lets defeat him.

[mrgorth]

23. Me for one.

[dpbrown]

35. You'll be lonely

And even if he wins, you'll feel dirty later, for helping to force women into uterine slavery.

[LetsGoMurphys]

56. I

already feel dirty with you using the word uterine slavery over and over again. never for voting for bobby casey.

[Patiod]

66. Me. My pro-choice butt is going to be out there for Casey.

I'm not a single-issue Democrat. He's not Republican lite, he's just "pro-choice". I disagree with him, but his other positions (pro-labor, etc.) work for me.

And why isn't the Death Penalty our litmus test? Why abortion?

[beyurslf]

22. I dont see how a Blue state could possibly re-elect Santorum.

[QC]

26. Maybe because the notion that states are either "red" or "blue"

is simpleminded GOP propaganda and an utterly useless excuse for political analysis?

I know that many people here are absolutely wild about the whole red/blue thing, but it's divisive, it exaggerates the GOP's power and our party's weakness, and there's a hell of a lot more to a state's political culture than which candidate got a majority in one election.

It's time we stopped depending on this silly little piece of corporate media "conventional wisdom."

[mdguss]

42. Pennsylvania voted for Gore and re-elected Santorum at the same time:

You have to understand that Pennsylvania is a swing state that leans Democratic. It has a definate culturial conservative streak. Santorum exploits that, and has been elected twice. Casey blunts Santorum's advantage on two hot button issues (abortion and guns), and exploits Santorum's weaknesses by being pro-union/pro-worker/pro-senior.

[leyton]

61. I don't see how a red state like New Hampshire could possible

break for Kerry...

[mrgorth]

24. Feel the funk blast!

[Just Me]

27. We need to pull together and take down every vulnerable Repuke!

Then, maybe the pendulum will swing sufficiently back that we'll be able to pick up the "liberal" ball and run like hell with it!!!!

:bounce:

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

28. If I can vote for Casey

as a moderate Republican, then just about any PA Democrat can do it. If there are any opponents to ol' man-on-dog in the PA Republican primary, I will vote for any opposition candidate...I get to shoot at the big elephant twice.:evilgrin:


Casey is not my ideal choice, but he is NOT Rick Santorum...I repeat, he is NOT Rick Santorum.

[Just Me]

29. *grin* Awesome!!!

Maybe you can start a "Republicans for Casey" movement *LOL*!!!B-)

[demwing]

31. Casey Leads in Nearly Every Category

Only behind with men, Republicans, conservatives, in the Northeast and in "the T."

To put that in perspective, Casey leads in all age groups, all racial groups, 2 out of 4 party groups, 3 out of 4 ideological groups, and 2 out of 4 geographic groups. Overall, Casey leads in 18 out of 23 groups

Ok! Sounds AWESOME!

But what the heck is "The T" ???

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

32. The "red" Pennsyl-tucky center of our state. nt

[demwing]

50. I don't know, is that a crack on Kentucky?

the 15th state, home of Daniel Boone, and 9/10ths of my family?

I mean, it not exactly like Kentucky is the Vermont of the South, but then, it's not like Pennsylvania is the New Hampshire of the middle states either.

;)

[BurgherHoldtheLies]

60. That's a Carville line, I think

Sorry, no disrespect to you or your family. I've heard other pundits use that term too. It is a different world in the 'T' of PA though.

[demwing]

65. Im just messin with ya

:)

[Patiod]

67. "PA is Phila & Pittsb, with Alabama in the middle" J Carville

It's from the days when Carville was working for Casey's dad, and got him elected governor.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

39. kick

[IronLionZion]

49. The T is the areas that are not Philly and Pitt

retarded narrow-minded DUers like to make fun of the people that live here because they are oblivious to the fact that there are many good Democrats here. Casey can win these rural people over if he tries hard enough. His father was very popular across the state.

[dpbrown]

34. EMILY's List supports Barbara Hafer, therefore, so do I

Pandering to the anti-choice female oppression crowd won't win elections.

[sidwill]

36. Well

The poll in the first post of this thread suggests otherwise.

[dpbrown]

38. If Santorum's so bad, Hafer would beat him as well

Poll on DailyKOS:

Casey v. Santorum

Casey 47%

Santorum 40%

Hafer v. Santorum

Hafer 44%

Santorum 44%

The Democrats would be better off bolstering the candidate who portrays a real difference to the homophobic Santorum, not trying to mimic him with a Democrat who doesn't differ from Santorum on an issue that they feel strongly about.

Activists won't doorknock for someone who doesn't differ from the Republican on an issue they feel strongly about.

And if this is an issue of Democrats trying to force support of uterine slavery into the Democratic platform out of "necessity" then Democrats would be wise to reject this overture.

[mdguss]

43. Again, Hafer dropped out two weeks ago allow Casey to run:

Hafer dropped out to allow Casey to run unimpeded in the primary, and so that the party won't squander it's resources on a primary.

[demwing]

45. Forced support of "uterine slavery" ???

How about we take a deep breath and register that what this IS about is gaining a majority of seats in the Senate, whereby Democrats controll votes, chairs, etc.

This is NOT about "uterine slavery."

Fuck. What a narrow view of the political process.

[dpbrown]

62. "Fuck. What a narrow view" Nice language. Activists don't see it that way

You all are the ones who are missing the point.

I couldn't care less if the Democrats in Pennsylvania are so spineless that they are willing to pander to the oppression of women caucus to appeal to people who would normally vote for the homophobe Santorum.

The point I made, and the one that no one has rebutted (in their haste to beat up on me) is that activists for whom that is a major issue will not doorknock for Casey.

And your insistence on insulting me, as if I was one of those people, is proof, in my opinion, that the panderers supporting Casey a) are in denial of the effect that splintering the activist base will have on Casey's campaign, and b) are deluded in the conviction that oppression of women ties into the populist base of Democratic principles that Democrats need to reconnect with in order to turn back the tide of Republican gains.

[mdguss]

40. Hafer dropped out to allow Casey a shot at Santorum:

She had long said that she wouldn't run if she thought Casey had the best chance of winning. Hafer did the right thing. She isn't running for the Senate in 2006 because she wants to allow the party to focus its resources on beating Santorum.

[sidwill]

44. It seems that

Hafer gets it.

[LetsGoMurphys]

57. im glad

some people get it.

[Ramsey]

48. EL never officially supported Hafer

Possibly they would have, had she stayed in the race, but EL always evaluates the stats, especially in primaries, and assess the chance their support will make a difference.

[joanski01]

68. I live in Southwestern PA and

I know people personally who voted for Casey over Ed Rendell in the primaries. Casey is well liked here.

[IndianaGreen]

69. Casey is anti-abortion rights, but Santorum...

is such a disgusting emotionally disturbed individual that makes Casey look like the only rational alternative.