Why isn't Edwards getting much of a bounce in NH?

[ringmastery]

He's more or less stagnant in the polls.

[robsul82]

1. Yankees don't like southerners, maybe...

...but they facilliated the Clinton comeback...damn, I really don't know.

Later.

RJS

[mmonk]

2. Different venue

[DoveTurnedHawk]

3. Wild-Assed Guess

Iowa liked how Edwards was a Southerner with a positive message.

Clark is a Southerner with a positive message, and he's been in NH for weeks now. So it's not as novel for NH voters, as it was in Iowa.

DTH

[Caution]

4. Dean and Kerry are from neighboring states...

That's my guess anyways. NH is more familiar with Dean/Kerry than they are with Edwards, and it is a lot easier for Kerry and Dean's staffs to canvas in NH than it is for Edward's staff.

[spooky3]

7. So is Lieberman. Another factor...

I believe Edwards thought he had no chance in NH until the Iowa results Monday night. So he had not spent much time there. But with those positive results, he changed plans and decided to give it a shot this week, while also going to SC, in order not to slow his momentum. He comes across well person-to-person, and I think spending tons of time meeting and greeting in Iowa helped him, but hasn't put in the time to let that happen for him in NH. So I am not surprised he is inching up rather than vaulting up. He also has not gotten an endorsement comparable to the Des Moines Register's in NH. I know some people don't think that's important, but I do.

Just my perceptions from afar--I have no idea what the reality is.

[Leilani]

11. I saw Edwards today on C-Span

& they said he had done over 100 town halls, so he's been there.

I think the polls are very fluid; many undecideds, & it's too soon to tell how he will do.

[spooky3]

13. wow, that's great. I had no idea he had done so many.

Thanks for the info.

[He loved Big Brother]

5. Maybe his supporters

haven't gotten around to making another deal with Kucinich supporters yet.

[Monument]

6. Kerry is too strong - native son.

Kerry is getting all the looks due to his Mass roots. I think it'll be different down south, but a Kerry fresh off a big win in Iowa and NH would certainly carry momentum into the southland.

I don't think that NH is going to "decide" this race, I think that the "native son" factor makes this primary count less than it otherwise would.

[HereSince1628]

8. He's moved up a bit,

Doesn't much of southern NH get its news from Mass? Media influence on the "I'll say I'm with who ever is winning" group would seem important. And my suspicion is that Kerry's win was huge in Mass.

[leyton]

21. Boston media

Kerry flooded the Boston media market with campaign ads when he ran for re-election in 2002 so that he would have name recognition in New Hampshire.

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. Unlike in Iowa, Clark is a real option for NH voters.

Voters in Iowa turned away from Gephardt and Dean in rather large numbers, and many of those votes went to Edwards. The Iowa vote, was to an extent, a referendum there on whether the two original Iowa frontrunners were good potential nominees, and the results were disappointing to Gephardt and Dean. However there was no such referendum on Clark. The New Hampshire field is more crowded with viable positive choices. Clark's small slippage in NH is deceptive. Clark has a strong core of real support in NH above and beyond the "borrowed" Kerry voters that reverted back to Kerry when it started looking like Kerry had a chance again. Edwards is trying to grab votes from Dean and the undecided, but so is everyone else.

[kentuck]

10. Maybe he got more support from the Kucinich deal....

than we realized?

[sleipnir]

12. The IA result was screwy and an anamoly

The whole caucuas system is ludicrius, but even more so in IA. And the last minute deal with Kucinich led to his 2nd. I don't think that we'll see that result repeated outside of the 12 southern states.

IMO, it bothers me that Edwards hasn't gotten a bounce, his campaign may still be dead in the water.

I also think that it seriously questions his ability to motivate the Dark Blue Northern states, if he gets the nomination. He'll still win them, no way Bush is taking NH or MA, but the "motivation" factor of money/time/volunteering is seriously in jeopardy for him in the Northern states. I think the NH results are evidence of this, no one is really gung ho for Edwards.

[robsul82]

14. Bush took NH in 2000.

Anything's possible...except Bush taking Jersey. No Goddamned way he's taking The Boss' state. Fuck that shit.

Later.

RJS

[WI_DEM]

15. give it time

he might yet.

[rumguy]

16. Regional pride - Kerry is native son - and the Pats are in the superbowl

I think you will see Edward do very good on Febuary 3rd.

[DjTj]

24. ...against Carolina

Edwards had to admit to a crowd that he was rooting for the Panthers.

:silly:

[youngred]

17. Dean's speech

took all the positive buzz off his second place finish.

Hell the networks cut away from his speech to go to Dean

[Lex]

18. And in South Carolina

will we be asking what happened to Kerry's momentum and saying he's stagnant in the polls?

I think it's a regional thing.

[ajacobson]

19. Perhaps his vote in Iowa was a protest vote

by Dem activists turned off by negative campaigning?

I've got nothing against protest votes, but it doesn't create much national momementum.

[AP]

20. He's up over 75% in the polls I've seen. This is exaclty what he did in IA

In NH, he's 5-8 in one, 6-10 in the other.

Just like IA, he started low, finished high.

Also, notice how far off the polls were from the outcome? Kerry and Edwards did much better than they polled, ultimately.

[SangamonTaylor]

22. he also took off tremendously after the last debate

and the De Moines endorsement.

His result in Iowa is an endorsement enough as a viable candidate.

He just does not receive the face time that the other candidates have received (including positive and negative coverage).

His message takes time, and after this night there should be significant movement, especially with the NH undecideds.



Go Edwards!

[Snivi Yllom]

23. Edwards does not have 'the stuff'

As much as CNN/MSNBC would like you to think so.

[AP]

25. CNN just told he DOESN'T have the $TUFF, by the way.

[tryanhas]

26. What?

You mean the same CNN that is talking about that stupid PRECINCT PACKAGE THAT EDWARDS KNEW NOTHING ABOUT like it's Watergate all over again?

Get real.

Dean got what he deserved. The media can't find anything on Edwards so they are trying their best to blow any little thing that comes up out of proportion.

Just ask Matt Drudge if I'm right...