How Vulnerable is the U.S. House from losing Republican members in 06

[seahawky]

I think with all the activity in the House in the last few months on social security that the house may change over.

[rockymountaindem]

1. I think we're too far behind to retake it in just one election.

It's going to be a multi-year effort. I'm prepared to wait 20 years personally.

[Pepperbelly]

16. we've closed the gap in every election since '94. nt

[rockymountaindem]

19. And we're still 26 behind.

Wow, I'm so encouraged.

[WI_DEM]

20. no, we lost ground in '04 in both the house and senate

and actually we lost seats in '02 in the House and Senate as well. So for the last two election cycles we lost ground in the House. But in 96,98, and '00 we were slowly but surely gaining ground. Part of the problem with the house is the 2000 redistricting which helped Republicans immesurably.

[PurityOfEssence]

21. Not in '02 or '04

We lost something like 7 seats in '02 thanks to the fear-mongering, and I think it was 3 the last time around. Considering that the Nazis netted (I think) 4 in Texas through their illegally financed gerrymandering, they actually lost ground overall when looking at the trend.

Your point is well taken though, I just had to quibble...

We only need to flip something like 17 seats this time around to take back the house, and that would be just dandy; I dream of seeing Junior giving testimony under oath in front of Congress...

[ArkDem]

24. The truth is in the link below. We have gained 1 seat since 1995.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0774721.html

[GOPBasher]

25. No. We gained in 96, 98 and 00, but lost seats in 02 and 04. n/t

[Pepperbelly]

31. I stand corrected. nt

[GetTheRightVote]

2. I am so hopeful this is possible, a better congress ahead then

:kick:

[sasquatch]

3. If we run attack ads and campaign on Social Security and TS:

I think we'll win back the house.

[physioex]

4. I can't answer that...

But I would say that this is also a nice period for liberalism. We are most active and organized when we are beaten down. So in some ways these are the good times for liberalism.....

[oxbow]

5. Agreed. It's good to fight the good fight! nt.

[physioex]

6. Really when the Dems were in power......

Say before the 90's "Republican Revolution", I think this country was quite coservative. Now I see a shift towards liberalism. Not in terms of the politicians but in terms of the people. Pundits like El Drugbo can't sell the books that they used to and simply don't get the attention they use to when Clinton was in power.

[autorank]

7. Good question: Remember 1994 -- major Dem Leg. Failure (health care)

due to poor party discipline FOLLOWED BY a butt kicking by the Republicans in he House. How many seats was that...God, it's enough to just make you sick. The election was nationalized.

Well, what do you think? Social Security flames out because the Republicans are scared shitless, even in the House, and the Republicans take a position favored by a whopping 18% of the nation on THE fundamental issue, how we anticipate dying.

Add a stagnant economy, fears about the collapse of the housing market, and, oh yeah, IRAQ!

That gives us a shot at just spanking their asses in 2006. To do that, we need to make a lot of noise about transparent voting technology, exit polls to catch fraud, and intense scrutiny. My understanding is that it's not past the Republicans to steal an election here and there:sarcasm:

NEW LEADERS FOR A NEW DEMOCRATIC PARTY

[kaitykaity]

8. Howard Dean has two years to work his magic.

I wouldn't put it past him to be able to get
this done -- the money, the grassroots work,
all of it. That's what it's going to take.

[seahawky]

9. Dean can generate young voters

[tritsofme]

12. Like he did in Iowa?

What we saw in 2004 was probably the highest youth turnout we will see in quite a long time, I severely doubt they could be activated to 2004 levels in a midterm election.

[merbex]

17. The trick was to get them to the polls that first time

there must be research about the phenomenon that if you vote once you are more likely to vote again

We have to give them a reason to go to the polls;a message that is clear and concise and within a frame of our making

[jmcon007]

10. a simple and very possible scenario.....

Dems taking the House back may be possible, but even if that doesn't happen, I believe there will be a ton of Independents popping up and running for office and I believe a lot of really pissed Republicans will vote either Democrat or Independent. At worst maybe their power will be diluted to a point where they have to...uh, govern.
As bad as I hate to, but feel it's necessary, I've been surfing around to some rightwing sites and a lot of them have posts saying the Bushes (GW & Jeb) aren't Christian and are weinees, etc. Alot of them are also saying that there's not much difference between Republicans and Democrats these days.
Dems lying low for right now is a good thing, I believe.

[DearAbby]

32. I agree on the Independents popping up and possible election of some

to dilute the power, I do see a slight trend to the left, in public wise, these events in the last few months are waking people up...we have to educate them and energize them.

[BigBearJohn]

11. NOTHING is possible until you first SEE it as possible.

[Griffy]

13. WE CAN DO THIS... its not that many AND... we get speaker then..

and that means that with the house we can open impeachment, AND after convicting bush AND chenney.. the next in line is.. speaker of the house. I think we need to win 12?... its late, perhaps someone knows the spread.. I thought we were 23..24 seats down. The big picture however requires a fair election system which we dont have.. and may not ever get until enough people understand that massive fraud occurs and bush rigged his elections! America needs an intervention... sit the country down and explain the rigged eletion and how we need to restore some level of democracy!

[Leilani]

14. The seats have been so gerrymandered

it will be difficult.

Every election shows less turnover in seats...both parties have worked to make safe seats, to the point that they're almost impossible to defeat an incumbent.

[Stevepol]

15. Nothing will change until the voting machines change first. n/t

[THUNDER HANDS]

18. if there's a seismic shift

we'll pick up 15 seats.

Most likely, we'll end up gaining 5-7 seats.

Inching closer, but don't expect us to win the House until at least 2012.

[WI_DEM]

22. I think we will gain some ground, but not take back the House

I also think we will gain some ground in the Senate, but I believe our big gains--and they could be very large indeed, will be in the Governor races.

[mtnester]

30. If the trend I am seeing here in Ohio is the case, the DNC is going after

the governors race here HARD. Mike Coleman has Clinton's presidential BUS to use for god's sake.

The DNC has made Ohio a priority. There was not a PEEP from the other potential Democratic challengers when Mike Coleman announced he was running..not a WORD.

If I read my home state correctly, it will play out Blackwell against Coleman. Additionally, the republican primary between Petro, Montgomery and Blackwell should be GREAT fun, as the newly forming evangelical PAC will be backing Blackwell.

I believe Mike "The Weenie" DeWine (senator) is also up for grabs here.

Ohio will be fun fun fun the next 18 months!

[Biology]

23. Georgia redistricting

Remember that the GOP is trying to solidify their lead in the house by redistricting. They could pick up several more seats in Georgia, which is undergoing redistricting now.

[GOPBasher]

26. I hope we can gain. I doubt we'll get it back, though.

The gerrymandering in this country kills any chance of taking over the house. But I am hopeful that we can gain some seats, IF we get a fair election.

[brooklynite]

27. This isn't an issue of "picking up seats" incrementally

Either there's a sea-change in voter attitudes (a la 1994) or there isn't. If there isn't one, district gerrymandering and voter's general attitude that Congress is worthless but their own representative is okay will keep things pretty much the same.

[LimpingLib]

28. Watch out though.

A Democratic House in coming years could see Hoyar become the next speaker.

He is younger than Pelosi.

Till we get rid of people like him I dont know what to think.

[bugslsu9]

29. There will be Republican members vulnerable

And I think you hit the nail right on the head, social security will be THE issue of the election cycle. I would suggest all of you find out how your House member and senators feel about the privatization of SS, and use that as a starting point. I know my Rep, Paul Ryan is the point man in the House for it, and that is one of the reasons I plan on beating him.