Exit polls (not confirmed yet) show a landslide loss for Tony Blair.

[frankly_fedup2]

Obviously, they have honest elections. Wonder if we can get them to monitor our 06 and 08 elections?

Looking for URL

More to follow . . . (like Drudge's BLOG. Always call it that. He hates his "website" to be called a BLOG (per his interview on CSPAN)

[rockedthevoteinMA]

1. Do they use machines? Because if so, he might win, just like *.

[myrna minx]

24. Hundreds wiped off vote register

I found this blurb interesting...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/vote_2005/england/4518189.stm

Hundreds wiped off vote register
Hundreds of people in west London will be unable to vote in the general election due to a clerical error.
Hounslow Council said several hundred people could be affected after names were deleted from the electoral register in two constituencies.

[liam_laddie]

26. English elections

They use paper ballots. They are four hours ahead of EDT in US
Blair could "win" by getting 35-40% of the vote and in the parliamentary system, he'd have a sort of "minority mandate." Really depends on how the party-affiliated MP's do. Like our 435 US House reps, but there are 646 of them. In House of Commons labour may indeed (or not) win a majority.
Polls close at 21:00 (9 p.m. in UK) or 5:00 pm EDT in US. Maybe we'll know something by 6-7p.m.?
The lead on this topic may assume a two-horse race when stating "landslide loss?" It's a three-plus horse race. FWIW...

[liam_laddie]

48. addendum

Update via the "Guardian." Polls close at 10pm GMT, that's 6pm EDT. No exit polls up yet...that I could find. There is a problem
with at least 9,000 military overseas ballots "gone missing."
They didn't even arrive at bases! Postal incompetence? Or a more sinister cause? Sounds like FL here...Blair my have picked up some "magic" from shrubie boy.

[On the Road]

2. Now, the Question is:

Are the voters moving right or left? The direction in which they're abandoning labor will make all the difference in the world.

[CottonBear]

5. Are the Lib Dems to the left or right of Labour or just different?

It seems that Lib Dems are a bit more to the left.

Here's the link to the BBC's Election 2005
page:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/default.stm

And here's a link to a page which compares the three major parties:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/vote2005/issues/html/grid.stm?s1=CON_UK&s2=LAB_UK&s3=LD_UK&x=9&y=11

[genius]

27. Labour isn't much diff from Conservatives. The Lib Pty is the liberal one.

People I know in England were shocked at how conservative Tony was on social programs. He's the opposite of what your would expect from Labour.

[malmapus]

3. Yeah we all know about exit polls don't we

:eyes:

[iamjoy]

4. Exit Polls Are Totally Reliable

I'll believe it when it is official.

Is it really good if Blair loses? I know about Iraq and his assaults on civil rights, but isn't he at least socially and economically liberal?

I mean, wouldn't a Margaret Thatcher be worse?

[MostlyLurks]

6. Blair is Losing or Labour is?

Since the leaked memo was published on Monday, I've had a feeling he'd lose his parliamentary seat but I'd be shocked if Labour lost its parliamentary majority.

Mostly

[JHBowden]

7. Blair will win

All of the information I've examined indicates a Blair win, but with a smaller mandate.

[BR_Parkway]

8. Time for a 5 pm Red Surge n/t

[liberaltexas]

9. I don't see any evidence of this anywhere

Can't find anybody reporting what you claim. Could you provide a link?

[frankly_fedup2]

52. No, sorry. I have been searching since I heard it reported.

See my post below.

I just hate I got everyone's hopes up. I'm going to ask the administrators to delete it.

Sorry everyone. I thought "finally" an honest election. I'm really embarrassed.

[Last Lemming]

10. I don't know if anyone remembers this tidbit

After our "spic and span" election, Rove talked about abandoning Blair and working for the Conservatives--I wondered who leaked that document (although I can imagine it did our whitehouse much good to have it out.) Maybe Rove is looking for British support for Iran.

[Nothing Without Hope]

41. Very interesting - you'd think the neocons would have more in

common with the UK conservatives, and this would suggest that's true. Maybe the reason why Blair was Bush's poodle was that it was the only way he could keep US support, and for some reason he thought this would be important in keeping his own power.

[Last Lemming]

42. Note that when Blair couldn't

get a commitment from legal counsel that the war was indeed illegal, Rumsfeld wrote him out of the invasion plans. (Note that in light of everyone saying that Blair was the only person who could have "talked Bush out of the invasion.") Blair spend two days convincing Rummy to take him back. Rum said, "Geez, I thought I was doing you a favor."

I can't remember source of this--British news somewhere--sounds plausible in the ridiculously goofy way the world often works.

[Nothing Without Hope]

47. In this line of thinking, read how Blair sent the UK Attorney General

over to be "convinced" of the legality of the invasion in Feb 2003 - one month before the invasion. It's a truly horrifying story that shows how the neocons work to snuff out the moral compasses of people who know better. In some ways, I pity Lord Goldsmith, but not enough to forgive him.

I consider this a MUST-READ:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x1755978
Thread title: Guardian: How the UK was persuaded that the Iraq invasion was legal

[cestpaspossible]

11. Where did you see/hear about/read about these exit polls?

[Jacobin]

12. Did you just make this post up?

[autorank]

15. Well even if it made up it provided a few moments of glee!

:shrug:

[CJCRANE]

50. No it didn't!

I literally groaned "oh no!" when I saw the headline.

I've lived under the Conservatives for most of my life (before Labour got elected in '97), there's no way I want those miserable gits back!

[JDPriestly]

13. What is your link?

I believe they are 7 hours ahead of us. Their polls don't close until 22:00 BST, so we can't begin to know until then -- 3:00 p.m. PST out here on the west coast. It's much to early to tell.

[Totally Committed]

14. I don't think any of this matters....

The Bush administration could not possibly allow a Blair defeat. He'll win. They'll see to it.

TC

[Mass]

16. Too early

Polls close at 21:00 GMT, ie in more than 3 hours.

Last polls show Blair winning, which would be no surprise as the other alternative is worse.

People have to remember that if he wins (even with a lesser margin than last time), it would still be an historic victory as most governements only last two terms.

[Jack Rabbit]

17. British polls published today

Source: BBC poll tracker
Method: Use poll result against BBC seat calculator

Poll . . . . Labour % Labour seats . Tory % Tory seats . LD % LD seats . Other % Other seats
ICM. . . . . . . 38 . . . 391 . . . . . 32 . . . 173. . . 22 . . . 56 . . . 8 . . . 26
(Guardian)
MORI . . . . . . 38 . . . 393 . . . . . 32 . . . 173. . . 23 . . . 59 . . . 6 . . . 21
(Financial Times)
NOP. . . . . . . 36 . . . 370 . . . . . 33 . . . 188. . . 23 . . . 59 . . . 9 . . . 29
(Independent)
Populus. . . . . 38 . . . 391 . . . . . 32 . . . 172. . . 21 . . . 55 . . . 9 . . . 28
(Times of London)
YouGov . . . . . 37 . . . 384 . . . . . 32 . . . 178. . . 24 . . . 61`. . . 7 . . . 23
(Telegraph)

[funflower]

23. So is this a win for Labour?

or does it mean there will be some sort of coalition government?

[Jack Rabbit]

34. This is a big win for Labour

Even the worst of these (the NOP poll) will leave Labour with about a 100 seat majority.

Given the war's unpopularity and the general distrust the public has in Blair, the Tories had an opportunity to cut deep in Labour's 166-seat majority. However, they ran an absolutely abysmal campaign.

[truebrit71]

40. The Tories supported the war just like the Blair-ites...how could they

..differentiate themselves?

Answer: They couldn't.

The ONLY anti-war party from the start was the Lib-Dems. Thas is why they have my support.

I think the tories are going to get slammed, labour will shrink and the Lib-Dems grow to historic proportions.

That's what I HOPE anyway....!!!

[Jack Rabbit]

45. There are more issues that the war

Were I British, I would probably vote Liberal Democratic today to protest Blair's appeasement of Bush and his support for the neoconservatives' colonial war. If I lived in a constituency with a dissident Labour MP, I would vote for him, but not for a Labour MP who backed Blair when he followed Bush into Iraq.

The British people are cautious about voting against Labour because that would bring back the Tories and the policies associated with Margaret Thatcher. History has not been kind to Mrs. Thatcher. Although Blair is often accused of being a Thatcher-lite, he isn't Thatcher.

Blair was clearly a liability for Labour. Much of Labour's campaign literature publicized the party and its program, but not its leader. That was a good move. Furthermore, the conventional wisdom is that Blair will step down before the end of his third term and be replaced as Prime Minister by Gordon Brown, currently Chancellor of the Exchequer. Brown is a popular right now as Blair is not. The slogan has been "Vote Blair/Get Brown". This has been another good move.

It should be obvious to anyone that the consensus of the British public is against the war in Iraq. However, rather than exploit the British disgust with Blair, Conservative leader Michael Howard has simply said that Blair shouldn't have lied as he did, but then goes on to say that he would have gone to war over regime change. Of course, Blair was lying for the same reason Bush was: most Britons did not see regime change as a sufficient reason to go to war. Howard gets credit for candor, but the way to exploit Blair's blunder in Iraq is to run to his left, where the consensus is, not to his right.

The Liberal Democrats, who have consistently opposed the war, are expected to pick up a number of seats as a reward for their position.

The Tories added to their problems by taking stands on immigration that many regard as racist. That lost them more support than it gained.

[WI_DEM]

18. does this mean a loss for Blair in his district or will Labour be defeated

and the conservatives have the next PM?

[rniel]

19. Sounds eerily familiar to...

Recent history here... hmmm

[AP]

20. I will literaly vomit if the Tories win this thing.

[BootinUp]

21. save a vomit bag for me

But those polls posted above look pretty good.

[WilliamPitt]

22. WaPo says otherwise

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/05/AR2005050500442.html

[FrenchieCat]

25. You mean, no miracle after all?

:shrug:

[Chomp]

28. This thread is garbage

There is no such poll and it shows no such thing. I don't know where the poster got his info, but it's complete bullshit.

Blair's Labour party will win by a comfortable margin, although not as comfortable as last time.

[valis]

29. Really?... that would be something. I'd love it!

[Mass]

30. Really?

Do you think the Tories in power would be a good thing?

[valis]

31. I don't care... Blair blindly followed Chimpy to war. He has to go.

[Mass]

32. Guess people in the UK may care.

[AP]

33. Why don't liberals rally around their parties in good times and bad the...

...same way RW'ers do?

[Jacobin]

35. Because a liberal wouldn't enable Bush* to start a

war on a pretext to steal oil.

That's why.

[AP]

37. I also don't think a liberal would let George Bush have free reign in Iraq

[Totally Committed]

36. In one word:

Idealism. Liberals are entrenched in their own "priciples" and rarely, even in their own interest, do they vote against them. It's a sort of cock-eyed self interest, that I think equals, at times, the rigidness of the "Values Voter in the Red States. I know, because I used to be that way to the nth degree!

Until this changes, and we get smart enough to choose our fights more wisely, and vote the greater good over our own self-interest, we will lose to the RW's every time.

TC

[AP]

39. "I'm voting for the most liberal person with a real chance of winning...

...and I'm willing to accept incremental change": just not a strategy people who consider liberals tend to embrace.

Meanwhile, the conservatives have been laying the groundwork for 30 years through think tanks etc., perfectly happy to gradually move America to the right notwithstanding the fact that if you asked INFORMED voters to list their policy preferences in order of most important to least important issued, those positions would clearly tilt to the left.

And incidentally, that prioritization thing: conservatives convincing voters to have fucked up priorities is the key to their success. If you look at everything labour is doing, they are really sowing the seeds of political, economic and cultural power for people who work for a living in a way that is going to be permanent. But people would rather think of Blair as a Bush-lover over Iraq than open their eyes to the fact that British Labour and US Republicans couldn't have more radically different long term policy goals.

[communerd]

55. Howard win would be a nightmare for the people of Britain

And a wet dream for Bush. If Blair was Bush's lap dog on iraq, Howard would be his attack dog on the next country that gets earmarked for "liberation".:puke:

[reality based]

38. Gossip at a British betting site addresses this "rumor"

http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2005/05/05/the-spreads-afternoon-report/#comments

Note that exit polling is supposed to be kept secret until the polls close. Any rumors must be viewed with a high degree of skepticism.

[Chomp]

43. That betting site...

is suggesting the spread predicts a Labour 90 seat majority.

Landslide Blair defeat? Nonsense, garbage and bullshit.

Anyone who has even a basic grasp of UK politics will understand this.

[valis]

44. Ahah! The betting site should be investigated.

[burn the bush]

46. Palast says Blair will win but be forced to step down later

more or less. He said something like they vote for the party not the candidate. So wanting to keep the party in power, they will vote for Blair (much like what happened with our pugs)

He seems to feel that Blair will step down on his own or will be forced to step down, but that he will win this election.

I hope it works that way. If Blair is not elected, bushits may say it has nothing to do with them or the memo. If Blair is required to step down afterward, it will be impossible to deny that it was because of the illegal war that he and Bush conjured up. Hopefully, the US will follow suit as it makes the imposter in our white house relocate to a nice room at San Quentin.


the end is near.....the end of the bush regime that is.

[liam_laddie]

49. the rapture awaits...us!

Yes, the progressive gods willing, we will see the whole sorry-ass lot of them "enjoying" the rest of their lives as guests
of the state, maybe at Gitmo, or the UK might long-term lease us some comfy rooms on St. Helena.

[frankly_fedup2]

51. I think I may have misunderstood what was said. Ever since I

posted this, all I have read is Blair will probably win historic third term.

I'm sorry if I got anyones hopes up. It made my day for a minute or two.

Sorry. I apologize but it was an honest mistake. I hope the moderators just delete it.

But I could have sworn . . . :eyes:

[sonicx]

53. You made no mistake. I read the rumor too at a right wing UK blog

A guy says he's getting info leaked to him. But he's a Conservative supporter, so take it with a grain of salt.

Someone also said Limpballs mentioned it on the air earlier.

I personally haven't read these rumors from anywhere else. We'll know the real story in about 30 mins.

[frankly_fedup2]

56. That might be where my friend heard it. I asked her where she

heard it and she told me on some show her hubby was listening too on line. I got so excited I had to post it and then I knew the links would be piling up.

I really had some hope there for a few minutes so maybe that made everyone a little happy for a moment. (I'm still going to kill her).

I contacted the admins and asked them to delete this or lock it up and move it. I feel awful.

As I asked the admins, please do not banish me for an honest mistake in judgment. Next time, the facts, only the facts with a link.

Another depressing part about this is it is the only post I have ever posted on DU that has had so many responses. I've been a member since the 2000 inaugural. Strange.

Sorry everyone.

[sonicx]

58. Don't worry about it. We're allowed to talk about rumors.

:hi:

[communerd]

54. no even VAGUELY reliable exit poll will appear until after voting ends

[Synnical]

57. Which is about 25 minutes

I think.

[communerd]

59. yep- 9.00pm GMT

[Moderator]

60. I'm locking this thread

reason :

the original poster has requested it .