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Hey guys, as you may have read in other threads, I am an aspiring politican. Right now I am the Vice Chair of the local Democratic party. My political mentor is Vice President Al Gore, who is also a friend. One issue that is very important to him and I both is Global Climate Change. Recently I took a Scientific Research class at my school in which I studied this subject and wrote a 20 page paper on it and then did a 90 slide presentation. To put it lightly--I learned alot about the issue. I have also learned alot from the Vice President who is an expert in the field.
What I want to try to get across to young people is that it is a real problem. We must now act or face dire consequences down the road. Below is a report I did on Global Climate Change earlier this year. I hope you will read it and consider my plea to get involved:
Vice Chair Chris D. Jackson 2005
Our Future In The Balance: Global Climate Change and Civilization
In an age of terrorism and war, we often forget about an issue that is vital not only to our lives now, but to the future of civilization—global climate change. Global climate change is the term that refers to the changing of the Earth's climate over all time scales and includes all the workings of climate. Changes in the global climate can be brought on by both nature and human activity. However, in recent years, research shows that human activity is not only a factor in the process, but in fact is the main spark plug in the hastening of change in our climate (1). The brunt of the blame can be attributed to our over dependency and consumption of fossil fuels such as coal and oil (2). The burning of these fuels result in the release of powerful greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (C04), and nitrous oxide (N20) which are all major players in global climate change (3). We simply cannot continue down the current path of self destruction. It is our duty as citizens of the world to step up to the plate and recognize this all important issue and take the necessary steps to fight this predicament before it is too late.
In order to stop the rapid acceleration of climate change, we must first be able to recognize just what it is that is making our climate change so quickly. One of the most commonly attributed factors to global climate change is the greenhouse effect (4). The greenhouse effect is widely recognized as the process in which the atmosphere absorbs incoming solar radiation but blocks outgoing thermal radiation before it hits the Earth's surface. If not for the greenhouse effect, the Earth's surface would be frozen. However, instead of just keeping the Earth thawed out, the greenhouse effect has dramatically increased the surface temperature of the Earth due to record numbers of powerful greenhouse gases that are being emitted into the atmosphere by humans (5).
The most common gas in our atmosphere today is carbon dioxide (4). It is also the gas that is doing the most damage to our environment. Over hundreds of millions years, carbon dioxide has closely shadowed global temperatures (6). As carbon emissions go up in quantity so goes the temperature. The link between the two is clear. Carbon dioxide is the one gas that humans are adding to the atmosphere at alarming rates triggering an accelerated climate change. Whenever we burn oil, coal, gas, or wood, carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere (4). Approximately half of the carbon dioxide that is released into the atmosphere is soon absorbed by the oceans, animals, or by increased plant photosynthesis (7). However, there is a lasting accumulation that creates a yearly rise of about 0.4% in the gas's presence in the air (7). Ever since 1800, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has risen steadily from about 270 parts per million (ppm) to a present day level of 370 ppm—a level which is higher than any time in the past twenty million years (7).
The second most abundant greenhouse gas emitted by human activity is methane (CO4) (4). Although smaller in concentration than carbon dioxide, methane, molecule to molecule, is about 20 times more powerful than carbon dioxide (7). Methane is produced by the decomposition of organic matter such as the guts of ruminant (hoofed) animals, landfills, and rice patties (7). Production and distribution of natural gas, oil, and coal also are sources of methane (7). The atmospheric concentration of methane according to recent studies, is increasing at a level of about 0.6% per year and the concentration of about 1.7 parts per million (7). Concentrations of methane are now higher than at any time in the past 420,000 years (8). Despite being less in abundance and power than carbon dioxide and methane, other gases such as nitrous oxide, ozone, and chlorofluorocarbons each contribute marginally to climate change (4).
A third contributing factor to global climate change is population growth (9). The startling increase in human population since the mid 1900's has been coincided with two other important trends--the fast rise of carbon dioxide levels and average global temperatures (10). As the population has grown from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 6.2 billion in 2002, people have gradually expended larger quantities of fossil fuels and took part in more environmentally destructive activities such as fossil fuel combustion and deforestation (as previously mentioned), which both lead to the warming of Earth's temperatures (11).
A fourth factor in global climate change is the depletion of the ozone layer. The ozone layer defends all life on Earth from the dangerous effects of the Sun's rays. The ozone layer has been shrinking for many years now; however, recently, the depletion has become more evident. According to NASA, the ozone hole over Antarctica has grown to its largest size yet—three times the size of the United States (12). Just between the years of 1999 and 2000, over 60% of the ozone layer surrounding the Arctic Circle was lost (13). A smaller ozone layer lets more ultra violent rays into the troposphere, the Earth's lower atmosphere, which causes warming on the Earth's surface among other things.
A fifth component in our changing climate is deforestation. As everyone knows, trees play a very important role in our environment. They serve as the largest mechanism for removing carbon dioxide from the air (carbon sink) and also help shade the Earth's surface (14). An acre of trees have the ability to absorb ten times the carbon amount absorbed by an acre of crop land or grassland (14). Going even further in depth, studies show that one tree absorbs thirteen pounds of carbon each year and that one acre of trees absorbs 2.8 tons of carbon annually (14). However, when the trees are cut down, all of the carbon dioxide stored inside is released into the atmosphere. Each day 5,500 acres of forests are cut down and over 50 million acres are destroyed each year (14). The combination of the lack of absorption of carbon dioxide and shading from trees when deforestation occurs contributes greatly to the overall climate change.
A sixth and final element in global climate change is a phenomenon called global dimming. Global dimming simply is the decline in the amount of sun reaching the Earth’s surface (15). Global dimming can be attributed to modifications in clouds and air pollution that hinder the sun's ability to penetrate (15). Experts believe that the compounding of rising levels of artificial aerosol particles in the atmosphere and added moisture are causing the cloud cover to coalesce (15). It is now thought that the results of global dimming have cloaked the effect of global warming, and that resolving global dimming may have a huge and previously unforeseen influence on temperatures and sea levels (15). Studies that include the effects of global dimming advocate that world temperatures may go up by 2 E Celsius © by 2030, and could rise as much as 10 E C by 2100 (15). If these predictions hold true, the increases would trigger the melting of the Greenland icecap, significant diminishment in tropical rain forests and a substantial rise in seal levels around the world.
There is little doubt now that our planet is warming. Studies from bubbles from within ice cores have revealed levels of carbon dioxide are at a 400,000 year high and are on the rise (7). During the last century, temperatures around the world raised an average of 0.6 E C with the rate of shift since 1976 at approximately three times that over the previous 100 years (16,17). In fact, nine of the ten hottest years on record have occurred since 1990 or later (18). (In order from 1-10: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2001, 1997, 1995, 1990, 1991, 1999) And according to a recently released NASA report, 2005 could become the hottest year on record due to a weak El Nino and large concentrations of human-made greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere (19). You may have heard before that our climate is a non-linear system (18). One way to understand what that means is to compare our climate system to an engine. The global climate's main job is to serve as an engine that redistributes heat from equator to polls through wind and water currents (18). The patterns produced are defined by the amount of energy from the sun and differential of temperatures at equator and temperatures at the polls (18). So in the form of an equation it would be (x) over (y). Now, let’s pretend we had an average temperature of 58 degrees worldwide. An increase of 5 degrees globally actually means an increase of about 12 degrees at the polls and only a 1 degree increase at the equator. That is the reason so many areas such as Antarctica have temperatures that have risen as much as 5 E C—eight times faster than global averages (7). The dramatic increase in temperatures in these traditionally cold areas has led to the melting of permafrost, the buckling of roads, and the toppling of buildings and homes (7).
In Greenland, the ice cap, which is the world's second largest mass of frozen freshwater, is quickly losing its thickness in coastal areas. Studies show that it is losing three feet (1 meter) a year equates to about 50 billion gallons of ice each year (20). Measurements also show that Arctic sea ice has recently diminished by 250 million acres -- an area the size of California, Maryland and Texas combined (21). Within the past 30 years, there has been a 40% reduction in Arctic sea ice thickness (21). The evidence of global climate change exceeds that just of the Arctic and Antarctica. Snow and ice are melting all over the globe. Just since 1960, snow cover on the Earth's surface has decreased by 10% (7). Further, the yearly period in which lakes and rivers freeze over has decreased by two weeks (7). The world's glaciers and icecaps have also been disappearing at an alarming rate. For example, one of the world's most famous glaciers high atop Mount Kilimanjaro has lost 82% of its ice since 1912 (7). In 1991, while hiking in the Alps on the border of Austria and Italy, explorers found the remains of Ötzi the Ice Man. What makes this discovery so significant is not the body of the Ice Man per se, which was greatly preserved by the ice, but how long it had been preserved under layers of ice. Tests results showed that Ötzi had been covered by ice for 5,300 years before his discovery in 1991, which further proves glaciers in present day are melting at a rate that hasn't been seen at any other time in history (22). The United States also is in danger of losing most of its precious glaciers. In Glacier National Park, Grinnell Glacier and Boulder Glacier have both lost 90% of their volume since 1850 and experts predict the glaciers will be completely gone within the next ten years (23). Although rising temperatures are a fundamental factor, glaciologists have found a very complicated, less obvious, cycle is at work. As the Pacific Ocean gets warmer, it creates troublesome El Nino climate patterns which occur more often and with more power (24). These climate patterns reduce precipitation, including new snows to renew glaciers around the world (24). Less snow also means glaciers become less white and grayer, which absorbs heat more (24). Then freshly unmasked rock walls serve as an oven to further speed melting (24). Whenever glaciers melt around the world, tons of melt water is dumped into oceans and seas daily.
In the last century global sea levels rose by 15-20 cm (25). (During the same time period, the United States experienced a 25-30 centimeter increase) About 2-5 cm of the rise was a result of the melting of mountain glaciers (25). Another 2-7 cm came from a result of the expansion of ocean water that comes from warmer ocean temperatures (25). Annually, global sea levels are currently rising at a rate of 1/10 in (25). Overall, sea levels have risen 400 feet since the Earth emerged from the last Ice Age which was about 20,000 years ago (25). Already in places such as Trinidad and Tobago, which are low-lying islands, beaches are diminishing several meters yearly and salinity levels have began to grow larger in coastal aquifers (25).
Another example of the effects of global climate change is a more volatile climate which has resulted in more natural disasters. For instance, in 2004 alone, the southeastern coast of the United States and the tropics were devastated by a series of powerful hurricanes within a small period of time (26). Economical statistics back the assertion that the progress in global climate change is associated with more violent storms (27). Total losses due to natural disasters were five times higher in the 1990’s than they were in the 1980’s and have steadily increased into the 21st Century. In this new era of unpredictable climate, it's not just powerful storms that we should worry about, but also the extreme heat waves such as the one that hit Europe in 2003 (28). The killer heat wave ended up taking the lives of 60,000 Europeans when the temperature anomaly averaged 16-18 degrees per day (28). Many experts blame global warming for the heat wave saying that the changes in global sea temperatures that are taking place and unique conditions in the tropical area of the Indian Ocean were both factors in creating and maintaining settled air conditions over Europe (29). Even the recent tsunami that killed over 285,000 has been linked to global climate change. Environmentalists say that the steady rise in sea levels that are associated with warmer temperatures along with pollution and damage to coral reefs aided the strong wave as it crashed onto the coast of southeast Asia (30).
If we continue down the current course of action, we will soon face the wrath of Mother Nature. As noted above, seal levels are already rising, however, projections show that what we have seen so far is just a preview of things to come. If we are to go by the estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the ocean could rise by as much as 80 cm, which would flood two-thirds of the land area of the Marshall Islands and Kiribati (7). Places such as the Nile Delta and Bangladesh would become virtually uninhabitable, forcing hundreds of millions of people to become nomads (7). The United States east coast would also suffer greatly. Cities of large population such as Boston, Miami, and New Orleans would be completely swamped by the rise (36). To put all that into perspective, roughly half of the world's inhabitants live in coastal danger areas (32). In fact, many of the word’s more urban areas are coastal, which have growth rates double the global average (32). If predictions come to fruition, we could be looking at a cataclysmic disaster.
A second potential impact global climate change could have on the world is in the area of health. Increases in temperatures can directly result in mortality on large scales. For example, people with heart conditions are in danger a person’s cardiovascular system must work harder in cases of extreme heat, to cool the body (33). Heat exhaustion and respiratory problems will also increase if the world continues to heat at its current pace (33). Higher global temperatures would also increase the abundance of ozone at ground level (33). We all know ozone is what prevents dangerous sun rays from reaching the Earth’s surface, however, what many people fail to understand is that when it is present in the lower atmosphere (troposphere) it can be a very dangerous pollutant (33). Another area of concern in dealing with health is the spread of air born diseases. Studies show that most of the world’s most lethal diseases are present in warm areas. If projections hold true, with the steady increase in global temperature, disease carrying insects such as mosquitoes will be able to move and establish themselves in areas that are traditionally cooler (33). The potential diseases include malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever, and encephalitis (33).
A third potential impact that global climate change could have on the world is widespread plant and animal extinction (7). According to a recent study done by a group of scientists from fourteen laboratories around the world, by the year 2050 over one million species on Earth could become extinct as a result of the alterations of habitats (35). Among the areas of concern are forests, which are subject to fires, wetlands which are subject to flooding or drying out and glaciers which are subject to melting (7). On the list of species that could possibly become extinct are mountain gorillas, bengal tigers, and polar bears (7).
A fourth and very important area of concern in relation to global climate change is soil evaporation and erosion. Over the past few years as climate change has accelerated, certain areas of the world have experienced prolonged droughts. This phenomenon is due to a couple of reasons. One being that as the surface temperatures increase, soil moisture decreases (37). Another reason is due to our now unpredictable periods of precipitation. Instead of having normal periods of rainfall that recharges the aquifers, we are having more rainfall concentrated in heavy downpours that does not recharge the aquifers (38). Predictions show that if carbon dioxide levels are doubled, many areas will experience a 30-45% reduction in soil moisture (38). Another area in which climate change is playing a big factor is erosion. Studies show that a 1 ft. rise in sea levels would erode beaches 50-200 ft. along the Atlantic Coast of the United and 200-400 ft. along the California coastline (39). Further, a 20 in. rise in sea levels would wipe out an estimated 17-42% of United States coastal wetlands (39).
With the coupling of warming temperatures and rising sea levels, more natural disasters are expected to occur due with the increase in more violent rainstorms, droughts, tropical cyclones and other climatic disruptions. For example, more hurricanes and cyclones will be present because when water temperatures increase, so does evaporation (7). Once spawned, these lethal storms need only warm water to maintain their intensity and strength. Projections show that a one-half category increase is probable for hurricanes and that an 18% increase in rainfall will occur near the hurricane’s core (40). That means widespread destruction will follow suit as flood waters move through areas with insufficient drainage and landslides desecrate hillsides that have been deforested (7). Not only will the world be facing more potential disasters, but an increasing number of people are becoming vulnerable to these hazards. As mentioned before hand 50% of people world wide live near danger areas such as sea coasts and a majority of those areas are very populated and lack proper standards and facilities (32). The potential consequences are just too overwhelming to think about.
In recent years there have been steps taken that have tried to combat global climate change. For example, in 1992 industrialized nations agreed upon a plan to counterbalance their emission output at 1990 levels by the year 2000 (7). However, many of the participating nations failed. By 2000, the emissions of the United States were 13% higher than they were at the time of the agreement (7). Nevertheless, there were some nations who kept their pact and either maintained 1990 levels or reduced their output. Counties such as Britain, Germany, and Russia each saw their emission percentage go down (7). During the 1990's emissions rose by 6 % globally, with the United States responsible for half of the global increase (7). After the failed attempt to stabilize emissions in the early 1990's, the international community put forth another proposal called the Kyoto Treaty. The Kyoto Treaty called for a 5% reduction in harmful greenhouse gas emissions from the levels back in 1990, a goal which would reach fruition in the years of 2008-2012 (41). The United States originally signed the Kyoto treaty in 1997, as then-Vice President Al Gore as one of its major backers (42). However, when the agreement went before the United States Senate to be ratified, it was voted down 95-0, saying that the limitations on emissions would harm the American economy. In 2000, George W. Bush campaigned on the promise that as President he would closely monitor carbon dioxide emissions, but later changed his mind after becoming President and withdrew the United States from the Kyoto negotiations (42). At the time of the withdrawal, President Bush said his Administration would take the necessary steps, independent from the rest of the nations, to combat carbon dioxide emissions. However, since that time, he has made virtually no effort to seriously address the crisis or join the international community in talks. In 2004, in spite of report after report indicating that human activity is the main factor in the acceleration of global climate change, President Bush said that he would have to see more research before he imposes new limitations on greenhouse gases (43). Nevertheless, after a five year stalemate in negotiations, the Kyoto protocol finally got the 55% of the world's greenhouse gas production necessary for ratification when Russia agreed on participation in late 2004 (42). Thus, in February 2005 the Kyoto Treaty finally took effect, noticeably without the participation of the world's largest individual contributor to global climate change—the United States.
So what can be done on our part to help stop the rapid acceleration of global climate change? For starters, we need to wean ourselves from our dangerous over-dependence on foreign oil. Not only is our dependence on oil from the Persian Gulf an environmental problem, but it is also a foreign policy problem. In respect to the Middle East, we are dealing with the most unstable region in the world here. Despite two wars there in the past 15 years, it appears that we will have to fight many more before our nation realizes that our addiction is a very serious problem. Just like a drug addiction, the more we become reliant upon foreign oil, the more difficult it will become to break the habit. That is why it is urgent that we find alternative energy and fuel sources. Maybe the two most mainstream eco-friendly alternative energy options that are currently available are wind and solar power. Since the 1990's wind power has been a popular choice of energy in places such as Germany, Denmark, Australia, and Japan (7). In 2001, Denmark had 5,6000 wind turbines that provided about one-tenth of its electricity (7). Officials there hope to race that proportion to 50% by the year 2030 (7). Not only is wind power energy efficient, but it is also economical. Within the past two decades the cost of wind powered electricity has fallen from 40 cents a kilowatt hour to just five cents (7). Studies show that just three states in the midwest—North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas—could produce more than enough wind power to power the whole United States (7). As popular as wind power became in the 1990's, solar power became even more of a trend. Photovoltaics, also known as solar panels, take in sunlight and directly convert it into electricity (7). These panels can produce electricity for single buildings or can be made in large quantities to supply power into a grid system (7). Buildings in the future will have the potential to have not only have solar panels on roofs but also on walls (7). Although wind and solar power are the two major alternative energy sources currently on the table, there are other less efficient sources available such as ethanol, hydroelectric power, and nuclear power (7). If we are to address on how to cut carbon emissions seriously, we must first recognize where most of the emissions are coming from. Statistics show that transport is the quickest-rising division of carbon dioxide emissions (7). Yearly, emissions from automobiles are rising by 2.5% globally, and by 7% alone in Asia, where car ownership is fastest growing (7). Concurrently, the United States has 4% of the world's emissions from vehicles, but devours a whopping 43% of the world's gasoline (7). In response, many car companies have been commissioned by the government and pro-environmental groups to develop more fuel efficient, less polluting means of transportation (7). For example, monorails which are trains suspended and pushed forward by magnetic fields generated by the rails they run on have become popular in urban areas. Another approach to making progress in reducing vehicle emissions is through the use hydrogen. As we all know, hydrogen is the most inexhaustible fuel around (7). Hydrogen can be made from water and can be combusted just as gasoline is (7). However, instead of burning the hydrogen, the main component in the success of the hydrogen movement will be the hydrogen fuel cell. The hydrogen fuel cell is a movable, multifaceted energy storage area that generates no pollution while running (7). However, in order to further the hydrogen movement, large amounts of energy are needed for production (7). Therefore, large quantities of renewable resources must be on hand. One solution is to build large amounts of production plants for hydrogen in areas of the world in which there is ample water and renewable resources are in abundance (7). Although none of the aforementioned alternatives are perfect, each represent a small but symbolic step in the right direction towards a cleaner more efficient environment.
In science not all things are clear. However, what is clear is that global climate change is real. Right now we have the unique opportunity of addressing this crisis before it is too late. The process will not be easy, but it is something that we must do. We owe it to future generations to leave behind an environment that is clean and healthy, not one that is riddled with pollution and on the eve of destruction. If you were to sit back and put things into perspective, you would see just how minute our existence. We are just one tiny speck of dust in a galaxy that reaches far beyond our imagination. As the late Carl Sagan put it, “Who are we? We find that we live on an insignificant planet of a humdrum star lost in a galaxy tucked away in some forgotten corner of a universe in which there are far more galaxies than people. We make the world significant by the courage of our questions, and by the depth of our answers (44).” It is our time to answer. We must realize that we do not have some special right that allows us to continue to destroy the only planet we have and come to conclusion that we are all in this struggle together as citizens of the Earth. Some people say the problem is too big and too touch to tackle, however, in my opinion there is nothing that the human spirit can not overcome. I believe deep down inside of each human being that there is a sacred ecological bond forged between us and nature. The change is already happening. The only question left is whether we are willing to step up to the plate and do what is morally right. It is our future that is in the balance.
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