What's your 2006 Senate picks?

[SteppingRazor]

Still light years away? You bet! But why not have fun with it like the political junkies we are? Nearly every House seat is a safe seat with all the redistricting, so I'm willing to assume the GOP will control that yet again. But how about that Senate?

RETIRING
Dayton (D - Minnesota)
Election -- an unknown Democrat from a packed field takes on Republican Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is the GOP chosen one for this field.
Result -- Why the hell don't we have a serious candidate here yet? Kennedy wins, embarrassingly making Minnesota an all-GOP Senate until 2008, when Al Franken takes on Norm Coleman.
(CHANGES TO REP)

Frist (R - Tennessee)
Election -- The catkiller steps out to go for the Big Brass Ring (a.k.a. The White House), and Jesus freak Ed Bryant goes toe-to-toe with Harold Ford, Jr., a moderate (read: conservative) Democrat.
Result -- The Fords are a household name in Tennessee. And this one will be the first black man elected to the Senate from the South since Reconstruction.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Jeffords (I - Vermont)
Election -- The Dems defer to Independent candidate Bernie Sanders. The GOP throws up a candidate and cries like a little girl.
Result -- Vermont Loves Bernie. Nuff said.
(STAYS INDEPENDENT)

Sarbanes (D - Maryland)
Election -- I see it between Dem. Rep. Ben Cardin (beating out Chris Van Hollen in the primary) and Lt. Gov. Steele (who probably beat Alan "batshit insane" Keyes in the primary)
Result -- Maryland is safely Dem. Say hello to Senator Cardin.
(STAYS DEM)


POSSIBLY RETIRING
Akaka (D - Hawaii)
Election -- Akaka (age at election: 82) vs. ?
Result -- Akaka should step down, as Hawaii is slowly becoming Republican and we should get a young incumbent in while we can. But at least Akaka is a shoe-in.
(STAYS DEM)

Byrd (D - W. Va.)
Election -- Byrd (age at election: 88) vs. barely constitutionally allowable by age Hiram Lewis
Result -- Byrd demonstrates how age and wisdom wins out over youth, beauty, and an undying devotion to bombing things.
(STAYS DEM)

Corzine (D - New Jersey)
Election -- Corzine will beat Forrester in this year's election to become governor of New Jersey, leaving his chosen successor, Rep. Frank Pallone to run against state senator Tom Kean.
Result -- Tough call, but look to Pallone to pull it off.
(STAYS DEM)

Feinstein (D - California)
Election -- Feinstein (age at election: 73) vs. some GOP guy you last heard of racing against Ah-nold (McClintock, Issa, etc.), or else incredibly dark-horse candidate, Sec. of State Kinda Sleazy Rice.
Result -- If she doesn't retire, she's in
(STAYS DEM)

Hatch (R - Utah)
Election -- Hatch (age at election: 72) vs. Pete Ashdown
Result -- If Hatch retires, Popular Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson could step in, which could give up the unbelievable occurance of a Democratic Senator from Utah. But for now, Hatch wins.
(STAYS GOP)

Kennedy (D - Massachusetts)
Election -- Kennedy (age at election: 74) vs. ?
Result -- If Kennedy retires, Mitt Romney might run. Either way, Dems win.
(STAYS DEM)

Kohl (D - Wisconsin)
Election -- Kohl (age at election: 71) vs. Tommy Thompson
Result -- This is the rock-star Senate race. Tommy Thompson and Kohl are both very popular. If Thompson does indeed throw his hat in the ring, Kohl might retire to avoid ending his political career on a loss. Either way, Thompson wins.
(CHANGES TO GOP)

Lugar (R - Indiana)
Election -- Lugar (age at election: 74) vs. ?
Result -- Yeah, yeah. Lugar wins.
(STAYS GOP)





ELECTIONS
Allen (R - Virginia)
Election -- Allen vs. Governor Mark Warner
Result -- Virginians Love Warner.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Bingaman (D - New Mexico)
Election -- Bingaman vs. Rep. Heather Wilson.
Result -- Tough battle, but Bingy wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Burns (R - Montana)
Election -- Burns vs. (after another long primary) John Tester
Result -- The Dems took over both state houses and the governorship in the last couple of years. 73-year-old Burns is a fossil. Tester is young, with plenty of ideas. He wins.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Cantwell (D - Washington)
Election -- Cantwell vs. Rossi
Result -- Crazed with bitterness and seeking revenge, would-be governor Dino Rossi goes for the Senate seat. But nobody likes a sore loser, man.
(STAYS DEM)

Carper (D - Delaware)
Election -- Carper vs. unknown Republican
Result -- safe bet for Carper
(STAYS DEM)

Chafee (R - Rhode Island)
Election -- Chafee vs. Sheldon Whitehouse.
Result -- with a name like Whitehouse, you'd love to see him win. But like DeWine, as long as Chafee wins the primary, he's got it made as a moderate voice.
(STAYS REP)

Clinton (D - New York)
Election -- Clinton vs. ?
Result -- Only in their wet dreams does the GOP beat Hillary
(STAYS DEM)

Conrad (D - North Dakota)
Election -- Conrad vs. ?
Result -- Conrad has played it safe, playing moderate as best he can. He'll get payback for that by winning re-election. Unlike Lieberman, there's very little liberal base in North Dakota to try running a lib candidate against him. And besides, even if that candidate won, it would just mean a beating from the GOP. In this case, moderation pays.
(STAYS DEM)

DeWine (R - Ohio)
Election -- DeWine vs. as yet unknown Democrat
Result -- DeWine played the moderate card by being one of the 14 GOPpers to negotiate on the filibuster. If he survives the unforgiving and conservative-heavy primary, the moderate general-election voters will pull him in.
(STAYS REP)

Hutchinson (R - Texas)
Election -- Hutchison vs. former Lt. Gov. Ben Barnes
Result -- Dude, it's Texas.
(STAYS GOP)

Kyl (R - Arizona)
Election -- Kyl vs. unknown Democrat
Result -- Kyl. Despite its reputation as a swing state, Arizona seems hot for the GOP
(STAYS GOP)

Lieberman (D - Connecticut)
Election -- Lieberman vs. unknown Republican
Result -- Lieberman is the DeWine or Chafee of the Democratic Party -- if he lives through the primary, he wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Lott (R - Mississippi)
Election -- Trent Lott vs. Erik Fleming
Result -- ha ha ha ha! Why are you even hoping? It's Lott by a mile.
(STAYS GOP)

Nelson (D - Florida)
Election -- Nelson vs. Katherine "Cruella deVille" Harris
Result -- Even the mushy middle sees Harris as a thoughtless GOP apparatchik. Nelson wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Nelson (D - Nebraska)
Election -- Nelson vs. Don Stenberg
Result -- Nelson beat him in 2000. He'll beat him again in 2006.
(STAYS DEM)

Santorum (R - Pennsylvania)
Election -- Santorum vs. treasurer Bob Casey
Result -- In a moderate, mostly blue state like Pennsylvania, Santorum should've kept his religio-whacko views out of the headlines.
(CHANGES TO DEM)

Snowe (R - Maine)
Election -- Snowe vs. state AG Rowe.
Result -- While Snowe vs. Rowe sounds funny, it ain't for us. It's the old moderate story. If she wins the primary, she's in.
(STAYS GOP)

Stabenow (D - Michigan)
Election -- Stabenow vs. (after a nasty, drawn-out primary) token black conservative Keith Butler, whom the GOP hopes will siphon off black votes.
Result -- Bad idea, GOP. Stabenow wins.
(STAYS DEM)

Talent (R - Missouri)
Election -- Talent vs. ?
Results -- Missouri is probably safe for Talent
(STAYS GOP)

Thomas (R - Wyoming)
Election -- Thomas vs. ?
Election -- To paraphrase my Texas thing -- Dude, it's Wyoming.
(STAYS GOP)

I think that's it, unless some other oldies like Feinstein, Kennedy or Byrd decide to retire. But it doesn't look that way. The good news is, I have us picking up two seats. The bad news is, that's not enough. Anyone see it differently? Post away!

edited for spelling and to add state names

edited again to add more races, and do alphabetical order.

[AllegroRondo]

1. Talent is no shoe-in

if we can get a decent opponent. Where is Claire McCaskill???

[SteppingRazor]

2. Sorry!

I can't know everything, yeah? :)

I'm unfamiliar with Claire McCaskill, which is odd as I lived in Missouri for four years and I try to keep up with things

[AllegroRondo]

16. McCaskill ran for Governor last year

very close race. She has name recognition and a decent fundraising base.
Maybe she is holding out for the Governors job? Blunt is really making a fool of himself. She could take him easily if the election were held right now.

[SteppingRazor]

17. Well, I hope she runs and can beat him...

If she beats Talent, and Wetterling beats Kennedy in Minnesota (as I am not predicting in post #15), that makes the Senate breakdown 50-49-1 with a GOP majority if everything else goes my way -- so agonizingly close!

[Goldeneye]

23. I'll have to look wetterling up.

I haven't been paying that much attention, and the only dem I've seen thinking about running in MN is this lady>>>

http://www.amyklobuchar.com/

check out this poll from Wetterling's site
http://www.pattywetterling.com/

[nickinSTL]

24. I agree...

between Bush's poll numbers dropping, and the mess that Blunt is creating in MO, the Repubs are looking vulnerable.

I think any decent Dem candidate would have a good chance against Talent...now if we could just FIND ONE!

[jobycom]

3. Ben Barnes?

Is he supposed to be running? I hadn't heard that.

BTW, Texas is a majority non-white state. At some point the Republicans will fall, and it will be quick and probably unexpected, given the way polls are conducted. I wouldn't rule out a Hutchison upset. Not if she runs against Ben Barnes, though.

[SteppingRazor]

4. Not necessarily running

Many of the election matchups are just my predictions. Because I know everything. I'm smart and stuff. :dunce:

[jobycom]

11. LOL

I'll watch for it. Former Lt. Governor John Sharp is a more likely bet, though, I would think.

[Zen Democrat]

5. How certain are you that we can't keep the Minnesota seat.

I just don't see Minnesota with two Republican senators. If everything stayed like you have it ... and with a Minnesota Dem win, wouldn't we be at 50/50?

How about Arizona? There's a Democratic governor there. Is Kyl completely invulnerable there? He seems like a weakling to me.

And Kay Bailey Hutchison? She's so sickening that I can't believe that an attractive Democratic candidate couldn't take that seat from her. But Ben Barnes???? He's a famous Texas Republicrat or Demblican -- a John Connally protege. Would he be any better than Hutchison???? A real Democrat should run ... a Democrat with some freaking APPEAL! I think the best candidate to beat Hutchison would be state senator Rick Noriega. Rick is a great speaker, a wonderful guy, a real Democrat, and .... he's currently on leave from the legislature as he's serving in Iraq in the National Guard. He gets back in August. I think Rick Noriega has a chance to beat her.

[Hippo_Tron]

29. Kyl would be pretty hard to take down, Hutchinson would be impossible

You could reveal that Hutchinson was having a relationship with a gay black woman and adopted children with her and she might still win. She's the most popular politician in the dark red state of Texas.

[JHBowden]

6. I disagree about Virginia.

I suspect Warner is going to run for president, not for the Senate.

[Hippo_Tron]

30. Yea Warner is pretty clearly running for POTUS

[LittleClarkie]

7. I think you missed Kohl

He's pretty much a shoe in here in Wisconsin.

[SteppingRazor]

8. Oops! I actually missed five or six, including Kohl.

But are you sure he's a shoe-in? Thommy Thompson has been threatening to run...

[Hippo_Tron]

31. Tommy Thompson would give Kohl a run for his money

But I think that Kohl is by no means finished if Thompson runs, like some people here say that he would be.

[iwantmycountryback]

9. My predictions

Rick Santorum R-Pennsylvania
Results:Socially conservative Democrat Bob Casey Jr. is a very tough opponent for Santorum. He is strong on labor in spite of being socially conservative and is economically liberal. He has a famous name in the state, and received more votes than any other person in PA ever in 2004.
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Lincoln Chafee R-Rhode Island
Results:Chafee is the most liberal Republican in the Senate, and this is for a good cause as he represents one of the most liberal states in the country. His left-leanings however are causing him problems among the GOP, and some groups are trying to draft Cranston Mayor Stephen Laffey to challenge Chafee in the primary and he is more conservative. If he becomes the nominee or if Chafee is bruised in this potential primary, this seat leans much more to the Democrats. He is relatively safe without this, but this is Rhode Island and the Democrats have 2 good candidates in the primary with Sheldon Whitehouse and Matt Brown, and Whitehouse the probable nominee. This could definitely become a race.
TOSS-UP

Conrad Burns R-Montana
Results:Burns survived a scare from now Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer in 2000, winning by only a few thousand votes. He has a low approval rating in the state and Dems have 2 solid candidates here as well in John Morrison and Jon Tester. Schweitzer is very popular in this state, and should no doubt help whoever is our nominee.
DEMOCRATIC PICKUP

Open Seat-Minnesota (Dayton)
Results:Rep. Mark Kennedy is all but officially the Republican nominee for the Senate and the Democratic primary will be between Amy Klobuchar and Patty Wetterling. Both are impressive candidates and good fundraisers, and should be favored over Kennedy in this traditionally Dem state.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC

Open Seat-Tennessee (The Fristian)
Results:Rep.Harold Ford Jr. will most likely be the Democratic nominee for this state. He is a somewhat conservative Democrat who has drawn the ire of many liberals with some of his comments and votes (myself included.) His candidacy is very intriguing as his family is very big in the state and his uncle was just arrested for corruption and he is also African-American. The Repubs have Van Hilleary, Bob Corker, and Ed Bryant in the primary and Corker seems to be the favorite. This is a very Republican-leaning state and it will not be easy for Ford to win this.
REMAINS REPUBLICAN

Open Seat-Maryland
Results:5-term Democrat Paul Sarbanes is retiring from what would have been a safe seat. The Democratic candidates are Reps. Ben Cardin and Chris Van Hollen, and former NAACP Pres. and congressman Kweise Mfume. Mfume is having sex scandal issues and also fundraising trouble. Cardin or Van Hollen would seem to be the safest candidate in this very blue state. Lt. Gov. Michael Steele will be the Republican nominee. He is a joke, but should be taken seriously enough to make sure Democrats don't lose this should-be safe seat.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC

Bill Nelson D-Florida
Results: Nelson is one of the more vulnerable Democrats but so far the only Republican nominee is Cruella de Ville. Polls show that Nelson would beat her handily. The White House is trying to recruit state House Speaker Allan Bense, though he is mostly unknown throughout the state, specifically in the important downstate area. It would be a big upset if he won.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC

Debbie Stabenow D-Michigan
Results: The GOP can't seem to recruit a strong candidate against her, and right now she really looks pretty safe in this Dem-leaning state.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC

Maria Cantwell D-Washington
Results: See above. The best the GOP could have in this state is Dino Rossi, and polls showing him beating Cantwell are probably an aberration. Beyond Rossi, Cantwell seems pretty safe against Jennifer Dunn or Chris Vance or others, and this is a Democratic state.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC

Mike Dewine R-Ohio
Results:There have been several events in this state, specifically Coingate, which have reflected very poorly on Ohio Republicans and could lead to a Democratic wave in the state in 2006. No Democrats have declared for this race yet, but Rep. Sherrod Brown is a possibility, and he would give Dewine a hell of a race.
TOSS-UP

Jim Talent R-Missouri
Results:Recent polls show this talent-less senator to be fairly unpopular. He is certainly beatable with a strong candidate, and that could be Claire McCaskill. She lost the 2004 Gov. race by a hair and many Dems are encouraging her to get into this race.
TOSS-UP

Ben Nelson D-Nebraska
Results:Nelson is a rare Democratic Senator in this blood-red state, and he frequently has to side with the GOP because of this. The SUSA poll showed his approval in the mid-60's and the Republicans can't seem to find a strong candidate, with Bush putting their best bet in his Cabinet. Nelson looks fairly safe for now, but this is Nebraska so beware.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC

Robert Byrd D-West Virginia
Results:Stories of his demise have been greatly exaggerated. He is still popular in this state. He's been their senator seemingly since the beginning of time, and Rep. Shelley Moore-Capito is the only Republican with any chance at all against him. Byrd is doing significant fundrasing and I doubt he will lose.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC

Kent Conrad D-North Dakota
Results:The SUSA poll showed him to be on the most popular Senators, and this will be a very safe seat unless Gov.John Hoeven runs. If the Republican Hoeven decides to run, this race becomes very close.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC (possible tossup)

Jon Kyl R-Arizona
Results:Kyl was unopposed in his previous race, and the nominee will probably be state party chair Jim Pederson. Kyl is pretty safe though Pederson could possibly make a race out of this.
REMAINS REPUBLICAN

Jon Corzine D-New Jersey (probable open seat)
Results:It is likely than Sen.Corzine will win NJ's 2005 Governor race, and will then have to appoint somebody to replace his seat. The most likely choices are Reps. Bob Menendez, Frank Pallone, and Rob Andrews. They would be favored in 2006 and the Republican nominee will likely be former Gov. Thomas Kean's son, Thomas Kean Jr.
REMAINS DEMOCRATIC

[TN Young Dem]

28. Corker is in no way

considered the favorite. For the repubs, it is very close between Bryant and Hilleary. Many repubs are upset that most of Corker's fundraising base are big-time liberals. Corker is also rumored to have favorable ties with Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen.


My opinion: Bryant will get the nomination for the repubs. Obviously, Ford will be nominated. It's going to be a tight race, but if Harold can gain more support in East TN, then I think he can pull it off.

We'll see, though...

[SteppingRazor]

10. OK, I updated to include every race....

And I made a pick for every race as well. Glad to see others already making some other picks, and even some very healthy disagreement.
Gawd, I love politics.

[election_2004]

12. Minnesota and Missouri

I agree that Claire McCaskill would make a strong candidate against Jim Talent, but the other possibility is Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (although she may wait until '08 to challenge Babyface Blunt for Governor).

In Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar or Patty Wetterling will be the Dem nominee. If either of them runs a tight, smart campaign, she'll be able to defeat Mark Kennedy.

I think the best chances for Dem pickups are Pennsylvania, Missouri, and Montana - - which will chip away at the GOP majority, bringing the U.S. Senate to a 52-47-1 breakdown.

[SteppingRazor]

15. After doing some research last night,

I'll recant on Minnesota. I see a Kennedy vs. Wetterling race, with Wetterling on top.

That means the Dems retain this seat. I'll stick by my Missouri prediction, though. Talent will keep his seat.

All told, that means if things go the way I see them, we're looking at a GOP Senate, 51-48-1. Close, but no cigar. :(

[AllegroRondo]

21. I dont think Carnahan will run

she only got elected to SOS last year, I dont think she would try to leave that office yet.
Although if her Mom ran, it could be interesting.

[Yupster]

13. My upset call

is that Byrd will lose or retire.

In my defense, I called Thune beating Daschle as soon as Johnson barely beat Thune.

Byrd is my upset call this time.

I think he is more similar to Bill Roth than to Strom Thurmond.

Anyway, that's my pick.

The key group which will desert him will be women, especially younger independant women.

[Jackson4Gore]

14. Harold Ford Jr. in Tennessee all the way!

Proud to be helping the 'first' black Senator from the South!

[nickshepDEM]

18. Our absolute best case scenario would go like this...

Hold all of our vulnerable seats (FL, NE, MN, MD, WA, NJ) and pick up TN, MO, MT, PA, RI, OH. 2006 really isn't looking too good if you ask me.

[nickshepDEM]

19. "The Fords are a household name in Tennessee."

Yeah, a household criminal name. Just a couple weeks ago Ford's uncle, a local politician was arrested for taking bribe money. That can't be good news for Ford Jr's senate hopes. By the way, TN is trending further and further right. Ford has a shot, but its a very small shot.

[nickshepDEM]

20. Maryland will be tougher to hold than you think...

Steele starts off with great name ID. He will have unimaginable funds and support from the National GOP. I agree that Cardin is our best cadidate, but a recent poll showed Steele only a few points behind Cardin. It will be a very close race.

[Hippo_Tron]

22. You are assuming WAY too much WAY too early

For one, Tommy Thompson is supposed to be very happy in the private sector and has no interest in challenging Kohl. Secondly, Kohl doesn't automatically loose to Thompson. It would be a close one, that's for sure, but not an automatic loss.

Byrd and Akaka have given every indication that they intend to run for re-election.

Talent is in trouble and will have to run against Claire Mcaskill or perhaps Robin Carnahan

Burns is in trouble, but not a lame duck by any means. Montana is STILL a red state and Tester might not be as popular as Schweitzer is.

Lott could retire, in which case Mike Moore has the upper hand against Chip Pickering or Gene Taylor runs a good race with Chip Pickering.

Utah I wouldn't even count on with Hatch retired and Matheson running. Utah is THE most red state in he country. He won't be able to overcome the "values" crap simply because of his party affiliation.

[SteppingRazor]

25. That's the point...

Like I said in the intro to my picks, I'm just having fun here. I won't get serious for another year.

[Hippo_Tron]

27. Oh alright, nvm

[Johnyawl]

26. Cantwell in Washington State

...won't have Rossi as an opponent. The most likely republican candidate at this point is Rick White, who knocked Cantwell out of her House seat in'94. He's young, well financed, and can run as a moderate, AND he's beaten Cantwell once before, which the republicans will use.

Cantwell is in for a tough fight, and it will require enourmous effort on her part, along with help from Sen. Murray, Gov Gregoire, and all of Washingtons congressional Dems to keep that seat. As a Senator, Cantwell has stayed in the background far too much, defering to Sen Murray and Sen Clinton(a close friend). This is gonna cost her, as she has no issue that she's closely identified with, and no major legislation that she's proposed, and pushed through. Cantwell is also not a 'warm', 'people' person (unlike Sen Murray who is like everyone's Mom or sister).

On the plus side for Cantwell is that she has personal connections in the HiTech industry, and therefor access to lots of cash. She has worked her ass off for every Dem candidate in this state, down to dog catcher, so she's owed lots of favors, and her fellow Dems will work hard for her.

Washington is a blue state, although not as blue as many people think. We will elect moderate republicans to state wide offices. (Rossi almost succeeded because he was able to convince people he was kind of moderate). If the general mood of the country, and this state, stays unhappy with bush and the republicans, it will play well for Cantwell, as the voters will take their dissaticfaction out on republican candidates.

This is winnable, but not a "gimme' for the Dems.

**Edited to respond to a remark upthread about Cantwell vs Rossi polls:

Rossi is polling well at the moment against everybody because most people, out of a sense of 'fair play' think he should be elected to something, just cause he came so close in the Governors race. It's an abberation that will vanish with the spotlight of a national race. Rossi has a VERY conservative record as a State Senator. He downplayed that by insisting that as Gov he would have no real impact on the social issues that he was so conservative on. Running for the Senate, he won't be able to play that card, and Cantwell can hang a VERY, VERY conservative legislative record around his neck. This is not gonna play well in this state, especially with the kind of justices bush is appointing, and the Senate is approving.

I think the realization of this is one of the reasons Rossi has declared that he has no desire to run for the Senate. That, plus the fact that he thinks he can beat Gregoire, and he rerally wants to be Govenor.

Rossi has declared he won't be a candidate for Cantwells seat.
Jennifer Dunn has declared she won't be a candidate for Cantwells seat.

So far three possible candidates have travelled back to DC to be vetted by Rove: Rick White, former congressman and now lobbyist; Chris Vance, the State republican chair; and some wealthy businessman with no political experiance, but tons of money who's name I forget.

Of these, only Chris Vance has statewide name recognition, but it's not all positive, he's a whiney little shit.

The odds on favorite, especially if Rossi and Dunn maintain their refusal to run, is Rick White.