What does Edwards need to win the nomination?

[leyton]

Let's assume that Edwards performs reasonably well in the NH primary, perhaps a third- or fourth-place finish. Obviously, with the field so crowded, he's not going to have a clean sweep on February third, but he needs to win certain states to show where he's competitive, and he needs to win enough that he has a general advantage. How does he need to do on Feb. 3 to be viable on Super Tuesday or to become the anti-Dean/anti-Kerry?

The February 3 primaries are, with current polls:

Arizona - Kerry, Clark, Edwards, Dean - this will be shaken up
Delaware - I've heard Lieberman leads here. ???
Missouri - Edwards leading? http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=132&topic_id=193423
New Mexico - ??? Clark leading here?
North Dakota - ???
Oklahoma - Edwards second to Clark
South Carolina - Edwards has a slight margin over Kerry, I think

Obviously, Edwards must win South Carolina. I think that if he also wins Missouri and either Oklahoma, Arizona, or New Mexico, he's got a good shot at the nomination, provided that the other states are split between other candidates.

[mmonk]

1. He doesn't need to do that much

just continue to talk about standing up for the little man against the corporations, job losses, and continue to be vague on his foreign policy position.

[La_Serpiente]

2. He must come in 3rd in New Hampshire

and stop John Kerry from being 2nd in South Carolina.

[jenk]

3. re

A 2nd or 3rd place finish in NH will put Edwards past Clark in Arizona, but not past Kerry

Delaware- Haven't seen a single poll from that state

Missouri- Edwards can win here

NM- A poor Clark showing in NH will hurt a lot, but Kerry will be tough as well

ND- ditto Delaware

Oklahoma- Clark does bad in NH, Edwards takes first in Oklahoma

SC- Edwards leads by 4 over Kerry, I think he can win this state

[Renew Deal]

4. Edwards and CLark is the battle for Southern support

The one that does better sooner will take off.