This was posted in LBN last night -
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1672502&mesg_id=1672502 - but, compared with its significance, got slight response. I think the regulars in the GDP forum will see its significance.
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http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=51264 Iran Policy Committee (IPC) Co-chair Comments on Leaked U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran
8/2/2005 7:37:00 PM
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To: National Desk
Contact: Prof. Raymond Tanter of Iran Policy Committee, 202-742-6517 or rtanter@iranpolicy.org ; Web:
http://www.iranpolicy.org WASHINGTON, Aug. 2 /U.S. Newswire/ -- According to a 2 August 2005 Washington Post article, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) projects that Iran is a decade away from manufacturing a key ingredient for a nuclear weapon, roughly doubling the previous estimate of five years, according to government sources with first-hand knowledge of the new analysis.
The intelligence estimate is contradictory-reflecting disagreement within the community. On one hand, the estimate is reassuring: Iran is alleged to be about ten years away from getting the bomb. On the other hand, the estimate is worrisome: "It is the judgment of the intelligence community that, left to its own devices, Iran is determined to build nuclear weapons," according to the Washington Post article.
The intelligence estimate has been overtaken by events: "The estimate fails to take into account the June 2005 Iranian elections," according to Professor Raymond Tanter, co chair of the Iran Policy Committee, a Washington-based think tank. "Elections in Iran produced a consolidation of power under the Supreme Leader Khamenei and should accelerate the nuclear weapons pace by Tehran," according to Tanter.
The intelligence estimate is puzzling. Tanter said that, "It is puzzling how an intelligence estimate can conclude it will be another decade before Iran is capable of building a bomb when there is evidence of clandestine enrichment cascades at Iranian secret military sites and an ability of the regime to divert natural uranium gas to centrifuges, both of which should shorten not lengthen the time to produce bomb-making fuel."
"If Iran gets its hands on low-enriched uranium instead of natural uranium as feed material, or can smuggle in high-enriched uranium or plutonium, moreover, the regime could be months, not years away from a bomb," according to Tanter.
The intelligence estimate apparently overlooks evidence provided by Iranian dissident groups. Tanter said that, "The intelligence community has not had a good track record regarding Iran. Most of the major nuclear sites that are now known to the outside world and are inspected by the International Atomic Energy Agency, including the uranium enrichment site in Natanz and the heavy water facility in Arak, were revealed by Iran's main opposition, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI).
The intelligence estimate fails to take into account an inability of UN inspectors to monitor suspect Iranian sites. Tanter stated that, "The Iranian regime denies the United Nations nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), full access to the Parchin military site and any access to Lavisan II military site. Thus, there is no way for the IAEA to know for sure what is taking place at those sites." "Ironically, the estimate leaks just as Iran is breaking seals on its equipment in a nuclear facility in Isfahan, in defiance of its prior agreement with the European Union," stated Tanter.
The intelligence estimate relies on wishful thinking to explain away suspicious Iranian nuclear actions. Since overestimating the likelihood that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, the intelligence community uses "creative analysis and alternative theories that could explain some of the suspicious activities discovered in Iran in the past three years. Iran has said its nuclear infrastructure was built for energy production, not weapons," according to the Washington Post.
Tanter said that, "The regime must be pleased to learn that American intelligence analysts are using creative methods to come up with conclusions that are in agreement with the regime's disinformation program."
"If American analysts are using 'creative analysis' to make up for lack of current, actionable intelligence from assets on the ground, it would argue for using information from Iranian dissidents to provide 'lead intelligence,' information that can be used to verify intelligence obtained from other sources and methods," according to Tanter.
"The bottom line is that if the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran were as reported, it should be viewed with great caution and legitimate skepticism," Tanter said.
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Raymond Tanter is co-chair of the Iran Policy Committee (IPC), Adjunct Professor of Government at Georgetown University, former member of the National Security Council staff, and former personal representative of the Secretary of Defense to arms control talks in Europe during the Reagan-Bush administration.
The Iran Policy Committee is comprised of former officials from the White House, State Department, Pentagon, intelligence agencies, the Congress, as well as experts from think tanks and universities.
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