A few uncomfortable realities

[justinsb]

The world has changed, 9/11 was the halmark event that announced the change, but was not the beginning. The reality is that the US represents about 3% of the world's population and if you have a household income over 100,000 (USD) you are in about the top 2% of income earners in the world. Much of the 'third world' which represents 60-75% of the world's population now want a better deal.

Western militaries (the US, UK etc) which have been used to keep the barbarian hordes at bay are no longer much of a threat, both because much of the world no longer has alot to lose, and because it's been demonstrated that although they can inflict damage and casualties, these forces cannot ultimately win a war abroad as long as their opponents are determined. The freepers and hawks will say that the US still has nukes but, if you look into the collapse of the USSR you will find that there are alot of nukes out there. You should assume that anyone who really wants a nuke, can have one so it would be absurd to go to this option. The laws of mutual assured destruction are still in play.

Add to this the ascendancy of China and India and peak oil and you will have a fairly good picture of what the Bush administration is really fighting (not terrorism). The reality is that the US standard of living will come down and US power in the world is declining sharply. What remains to be seen, what is still being debated, is whether the US (and the west in general) is going to negotiate the new deal or try to arrive at a new deal through it's military. The more the US goes with the second option, the worse the deal is going to be.

[rkc3]

1. I thought the advent of NAFTA and CAFTA were designed to lower

our standard of living to that of third world nations. Additionally, the death spiral of organized labor and removal of environmental regulations ensures further decay of our standard of living and provides generous breaks for corporations in this country.

But keep in mind, as was pointed out in MPR's (Minnesota) Marketplace 2-3 weeks ago, even the poorest of Americans can still live comfortably in Uganda - there's always a bright side.

[raccoon]

2. Interesting post.

"Western militaries....cannot ultimately win a war abroad as long as their opponents are determined."

Because, as you said, a lot of the world has nothing to lose, and many of these opponents have nothing to lose.

"The reality is that the US standard of living will come down and US power in the world is declining sharply."

No question about either of those items. We have been seeing the US standard of living decline for the majority of Americans over approximately the last 30 years.

"What remains to be seen...is whether the US (and the west in general) is going to negotiate the new deal or try to arrive at a new deal through it's military. The more the US goes with the second option, the worse the deal is going to be."

Yes, the worse the deal is going to be. And as long as the Neocons/PNAC are in power, that's the way it is going to be. I'd probably have a heart attack from shock if they did otherwise.

Can I ask if you've recently read something relating to this? Reason is, I'd like to read it myself, if there is.

[Javaman]

3. We had our day in the sun...

Brits - 19th century
America - 20th century
China - 21st century
Africa - 22nd century