Believe it or not we could actually control the Senate in 06

[rpannier]

timsaler.com has an interesting analysis for the 2006 senate races. According to his October 4 findings (at this point) the Republicans would have 50 the Dems 49 and Ind (Sanders) 1. One of the seats he has as weak Republican is in Minnesota. However, according to The Mellman Group (not Mehlman) Patty Wetterling is almost unbeatable if she gets the Democratic nomination. That would tilt the numbers to 50 Dem, 49 Rep and 1 Ind.
I also think Ford will win in Tenn (51:48:1)
I realize that the election is a year away. But, we must get remember the puke machine is aware of this and are working hard now to prevent it from happening. We need to work as hard to make it happen, especially since some of the Republicans more vile candidates are their most vulnerable -- Santorum for example.
This IS the time to get involved. Actively campaign for your person. If they don't win plan on voting for the Democrat anyway -- unless it's hell miller. And if you don't have a Senate Race, remember governor races are more important. Those races continue to move in our direction.

[Doctor_J]

1. I don't believe it

The stakes will be very high next year, with impeachment looming if we take over the Congress. That means that the 2004 voter intimidation, lying, miscounts, theft, non-functional machines in the Dem precincts, etc. were playground stuff compared to what's going to happen next year. You will likely have GOP thugs standing in front of Dem polling places physically preventing people from voting, and frankly there's no way to stop them.

Sorry. Unfortunate but true. Your hypothesis would be feasible IF we still lived in a democracy. We don't.

[AX10]

21. The GOP will be doing this big time.

Republican = Nazi

[ray of light]

2. That's what we're trying to do already

at the democracy cell project. Grassroots from the ground up in a meaningful way.

Come join us!

http://www.democracycellproject.net (Look around and make sure you sign the Pledge and the 5 min/day on the home page ;))

[wakeme2008]

3. The problem the Repugs have is

the cost of gas/ winter heating costs/ and all the higher prices for things because of transportation costs.

The Iraq War will have around 2,500 dead and still growing.

I do not believe, Vote Repug so Gays can not marry will work in 2006.

[rpannier]

4. I read a report from a Republican Politico

He said that the anti-gay marriage amendment will turn out extra Republicans, but Katherine Harris on the ballot is like 3 gay-marriage bans to Democrats. So that could be a totally mute issue in Florida and may cost the pukes their Governorship there.

[FreedomAngel82]

25. Really?

So Florida could have a democratic governor? I hope so for Florida!

[FreedomAngel82]

24. No way

They have to have something to offer them besides that and Roe V Wade. People want jobs and the gas prices and the war. All you have to do is look at the polls.

[shenmue]

5. Sure hope we can make progress

If we can win enough to create real fights over important issues, I'll be happy, even if we don't have a dominant majority. Or, at least I'll be slightly less incredibly agitated than I am right now.

Then again, maybe it's time to brush up on the language tapes for that inevitable move into Montreal. I'm sick of this.

:silly: :banghead:

[NMDemDist2]

6. I"m already signed up to help get Kyl OUT of AZ

with all the CA people moving in and a well liked and respected Dem Gov. it may happen!

[joemurphy]

7. Here's the 2006 Senate Races:

55 Republicans 44 Democrats 1 Independent

15 Republicans 17 Democrats 1 Independent

Democrats 17 Seats (15 Incumbents)

Daniel Akaka – HI
Jeff Bingaman--NM
Robert Byrd--WV

Maria Cantwell-WA
Thomas Carper—DE
Hillary Clinton—NY
Kent Conrad—ND
John Corzine—NJ
Mark Dayton—MN (Not Running)
Diane Feinstein—CA
Edward Kennedy – MA
Herb Kohl—WI
Joseph Lieberman—CN
Bill Nelson—FL
Ben Nelson—NE
Debbie Stabenow--MI
Paul Sarbanes—MD (Not Running)

Independent - 1 Seat (No Incumbents)

James Jeffords VT (Not Running)

Republicans -15 Seats (15 Incumbents)

George Allen – VA
Conrad Burns – MT
Lincoln Chafee--RI
Mike Dewine –OH
John Ensign—NV
Bill Frist – TN
Orrin Hatch--UT
Kay Hutchison – TX
John Kyle—AZ
Trent Lott—MI
Richard Lugar – IN
Rick Santorum—PA
Olympia Snow – ME
James Talent – MO
Thomas Craig --WY

We would have to hold all 17 Democrats and the 1 Indepent seat we now have and pick up 6 of the Republican seats.

Right now I hear that Santorum, Chafee, Talent, and Dewine are vulnerable. Is Ensign vulnerable too?

Who else is? I'd love to get rid of Kyle and Hutchison but I don't think that's doable. I'm from Indiana and Lugar is a shoo-in for re-election.

[NMDemDist2]

8. the candidate against Kyl is rich, well known and AZ demographics

are changing as we grow.

It's worth a shot IMO

[rpannier]

9. Breakdowmn

Courtesy of www.timsaler.com:
Strong Democratic Advantage, 10 senators (30.3 percent):

U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, California;
U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman, Connecticut;
U.S. Sen. Tom Carper, Delaware;
U.S. Sen. Daniel Akaka, Hawaii;
U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy, Massachusetts;
U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico;
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, New York;
U.S. Sen. Kent Conrad, North Dakota;
U.S. Sen. Robert Byrd, West Virginia;
U.S. Sen. Herbert Kohl, Wisconsin.

Weak Democratic Advantage, 11 senators (33.3 percent):

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, Florida;
U.S. Rep. Ben Cardin, Maryland;
U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Michigan;
State Auditor Claire McCaskill, Missouri;
State Auditor John Morrison, Montana;
U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson, Nebraska;
U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine, New Jersey;
U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown, Ohio;
State Treasurer Bob Casey, Pennsylvania;
Fmr. State Atty. Gen. Sheldon Whitehouse, Rhode Island;
U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell, Washington.

Strong Republican Advantage, 8 senators (24.2 percent):

U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar, Indiana;
U.S. Sen. Olympia Snowe, Maine;
U.S. Sen. Trent Lott, Mississippi;
U.S. Sen. John Ensign, Nevada;
U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, Texas;
U.S. Sen. Orrin Hatch, Utah;
U.S. Sen. George Allen, Virginia;
U.S. Sen. Craig Thomas, Wyoming.

Weak Republican Advantage, 3 senators (9.1 percent):

U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl, Arizona;
U.S. Rep. Mark Kennedy, Minnesota;
Fmr. U.S. Rep. Ed Bryant, Tennessee.

and from what I read the pukes will probably lose Minnesota and I think Ford Jr will win TN.

[FreedomAngel82]

26. I hope you're right

And in my district here in Tennessee for Congress we have two democrats running (one is a Vietnam veteran) and an indie. So I'd be happy with either one.

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Ensign is not vulnerable

Not without Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman as our nominee. Goodman is a flamboyant former mob lawyer with something like a 90% approval rating. He could win the gov mansion next year, or seriously challenge John Ensign. But every indication is Goodman loves being mayor and will stay put.

Otherwise, we don't have an A-list senate challenger in Nevada. The bench is weak after bad cycles since 2000. Republicans hold every major statewide office. Many of them are retiring so the obvious targets for our up-and-coming Democrats are those statewide offices, not a senate run.

Ensign is considerably more formidable than left leaning blogs like to estimate, despite a blase resume as senator. He is from southern Nevada and will always pull a larger than typical GOP number from Clark County. Remember, Ensign barely lost to Harry Reid in '98, dropping a 400 vote decision after a statewide recount that dragged on for months.

I have seen reports that Jimmy Carter's son might be the frontrunner as our senate nominee. Apparently, he has lived in Nevada since 2003.

[rpannier]

17. Frist is not running

[Greeby]

36. Just to point, the Catkiller isn't running again

He decided to bow out ages ago so he can run in 08, although the insider trading may throw a spanner in the works.

Lets hope he gets put before a judge that likes cats ;)

[nvliberal]

10. Pure fantasy.

We are going to be very lucky indeed if we can keep from having a filibuster-proof Senate (and yes, I know people will say the Democrats have given it up anyway) either in 2006 or in 2008.

If there's anything we should know about these crooks is that they are patient.

[safi0]

12. Republicans

Won't get a fillibuster proof majority, the numbers simply are not there for them to do it. No Democratic incumbent who's seeking re-election looks like they'll lose. What about Bill Nelson you ask? Harris will not beat him in this race. What about Cantwell you ask? The Pukes were unable to acquire there top choice and the guy likely to get the nomination the Safeco CEO, is a second-tier opponent. Although Cantwell is nothing special, the Pukes lack of a top-tier opponent plus Washington's leftward tilt will get Cantwell another six years. Ben Nelson, won't lose to the same guy he beat in 00 and Stabenow isn't gonna lose to some kooky clergyman. Republicans have only really made 3 seats held by Democrats competitive. The open seats in Maryland and Minnesota and the soon to be open seat in NJ.

On the other hand, Democrats have made 7 seats held by Republicans competitive.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Making them competitive is one thing

Pulling out a straight flush when all you've got is a 7 of hearts is quite another.

Prior to 2002 and 2004 there were similar threads, regarding us sweeping all the contested senate races. Very understandable and commendable optimism, but no more realistic than this one. We're a massive underdog to regain control.

At least the competitive seats are in reasonably friendly states, for the most part. That's the reason we were able to regain so many of them in 2000. Last year it drove me nuts when we were projecting pickups in spots like Alaska and Oklahoma.

[safi0]

15. I don't think we'll

Take back the Senate, but I definetely think its possible, and I think its 20x more likely that we take back the Senate than Republicans get to 60.

[FreedomAngel82]

27. Only if people work hard and

go out and vote.

[ginnyinWI]

13. Fineman and Clift in Newsweek related what Frank Lutz said:

Indeed, polltaker Frank Luntz, who helped develop the "Contract With America" message that swept Republicans to power in 1994, was on the Hill last week warning the party faithful that they could lose both the House and the Senate in next year's congressional elections.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9558564/site/newsweek/


I believe.

[msongs]

16. Diebold: "whatever it takes" for republicans to win.."whatever..."

and the national dems still are not demanding fraud free electronic vote related elections and doing what is necessary to insure them.

Msongs
www.msongs.com/clark2008.htm

[deadparrot]

18. Diebold depends on close races.

If the bigger the margin between Democrats and Republicans, the less impact Diebold has.

[BlueCaliDem]

31. True, But What if Diebold & Others Force "Close Races" Like They Did...

...in Florida where voters would press the "Kerry" button, and it came up "Bush" in conjunction with typical Republican disenfranchising tactics?

I don't think it's all that hard to "create" a close race, what with their programs and tabulating still pretty much in deep secret, and they've even been so in-your-face bold, that they created a shut-down to "count" votes solely by Republicans!

I mean...it ain't that hard for the voting and tabulating voting machine owners to fabricate small enough margins to once again steal elections, and perhaps that's why Republicans have been so reckless and cocky--they KNOW that they have the "votes" on their side as long as they have Diebold, Sequoia, and ES&S on their side.

Remember that those corporations have a lot to lose too, if Democrats win the Senate and WH. They damn well know that they're quietly biding their time until they get a chance to do some serious executive and congressional investigating of what went wrong in 2000, 2002 (which kicked them out of power), and 2004--probably even going back when the Republicans took the majority in Congress too!

[deadparrot]

40. Well, if you're up by 10-15 points the day before election day,

make no major gaffes, and lose by 1-2 points, I think someone will have to ask "What's going on?" When your lead is small, or if you're neck and neck, you end up looking like a sore loser. But if you're by far the long shot on the eve of election day, then there is some cause for complaint.

[UrbScotty]

19. Casey and Hackett lead their races

www.politics1.com

[NCarolinawoman]

20. Schumer is now discouraging Hackett from running.

Brown had waffled and changed his mind about running and Schumer now supports him instead of Hackett. All of this, despite Hackett beating DeWine in the polls. Schumer says Brown has better money connections. Blah!!!!

[BlueCaliDem]

32. I Don't Know Much About Brown, But I've Seen Him

a couple of times on the floor of the House, and in a couple of committees too, where he riled up Republicans pretty badly--to the point he had to be reprimanded, though that didn't stop him.

I believe, perhaps, Schumer is right; that Hackett should run for Brown's seat in the House, and that Brown should run for Senate since he does have more political experience than Hackett.

I just think our leaders should get a term or two in the House, before they run for the Senate, which, I believe, gives them the experience they need, and hardens them, as they deal with less smooth Repukes there, before they go up against the ultra intelligent, but NO LESS bullying ones in the Senate.

Just my opinion.

[OzarkDem]

38. One small problem

Hackett doesn't live in Brown's district. Despite what "experts" say, Brown's congressional district is vulnerable and could easily go R. Bringing Hackett in to run in the district would be a disaster.

Dems haven't done a very good job of cultivating a farm team of candidates in Ohio who could run in Brown's district. One possible contender could be former Rep. Tom Sawyer, who lost his seat to redistricting a few years ago. He was targeted unfairly by labor for voting for NAFTA.

[Lexingtonian]

22. pretty vanilla, imho

The details seem off but my analysis is about the same numbers, were the election held this week.

Amy Knobluchar leads Mark Kennedy in Minnesota by 49 to 42. The DFL is giving her the nomination and the general election is not going end up being real close.

Montana is not as close yet as Saler thinks. Burns would get 52% there now and Tester is going to have to do an awful lot, and national Republican fortunes have to sink quite a bit further, to get the remaining 3% or 4% he needs, though I think he will in the end.

Kyl is probably weaker than Saler thinks- he doesn't clear 49% in any polling- and DeWine and Talent are probably somewhat stronger than their polling numbers suggest due to their electorates. Chances of Chaffee and Snowe retiring are pretty good. Spector has looked into resigning. I wouldn't put good money on non-incumbent Democrats in the South this election cycle yet, though.

Ensign is the one really frustrating opponent. Nevada is a small enough state that someone should be able to put the winning pieces together and put him out of business.

[safi0]

28. Thing about Montana

Is that Burns is a poor campaigner and a notoriously slow closer. In his 2000 race he led his opponent now Gov. Brian Schweitzer like 54-28 in May 2000. By the time late October rolled around that number was down to 49-47. If that election had been a week longer Brian Schweitzer would be running for re-election right now. MO and OH are going to be very close we all know that. I haven't heard anything about Chaffee or Snowe retiring. If Snowe retired that seat would go safe Repub to leans Dem overnight, Chaffee's would go from toss-up to leans Dem overnight. Thing about Nevada is that the Dem bench is extremely thin, it looks like Jimmy's son Jack will run and he may be able to make them spend some money, but I don't think he'll win.

BTW not for you Lexington but for the person who said Schumer was trying to force out Hackett, where did you hear that?

[safi0]

30. I checked out

That website TimSaler.com and perhaps its just a simple oversight on his part, but when I see sloppy things like this it takes into question there credibility. Under retiring Senators he didn't have Sarbanes. Again, perhaps just a simple oversight but to me it questions there credibility.

[FreedomAngel82]

23. Yes!

I'm glad to hear and yes now is not the time to let up. Keep working hard and encourage people to get out and vote. Polls don't mean anything unless people get out and vote and you monitor the election(s).

[rockthevote2006]

29. Re:

We have a good chance for control in 2006. There is a rapidly growing campaign to recall Arnold Schwarzenneger's post as governor of California. If you want to dethrone a powerful Republican figure,
please donate 5 or 10 bucks at recall2006.com

Also check out this article in the New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/09/national/09recall.html

[Neil Lisst]

33. We can win the Senate in 2006

I agree that we can win the Senate in 2006, and we could win the House, too. A ten percent shift in the Senate and a 7% shift in the HOUSE will do it.

We're due for a tetonic readjustment in the body politic, a recovery from the losses of 1994.


------
TERROR ALERT!
http://www.webcomicsnation.com/neillisst/

[jfern]

34. I doubt it

When an elect is imminent, the Republicans and MSM get into full spin mode. We can be proud of ourselves if we have a net pickup of 3.

[Neil Lisst]

35. Ordinarily, that would be true, but not this time

This time, the pubs are set up for a big fall, not just a blip on the radar screen. We speak of pendulum swings in politics, but really they're more like tectonic shifts.

The last big earthquake was in 1994, and we're due to break back.

I think we can get 6.



------
FAUX TERROR ALERT!
http://www.webcomicsnation.com/neillisst/

[Crunchy Frog]

37. Given what's going down with the Repukes right now...

if our party is unable to take advantage of the situation enough to take back at least one house of the legislature, we may as well start looking at getting a new party. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for a political realignment and the Dems better not screw it up.

[OneTwentyoNine]

39. So....Diebold merely place their em.."special" voting machines...

in key districts. POOF...Dems loose,Repukes win!!

And with DC Dems not even wanting to ENTERTAIN the thought that our great Country could have rigged up elections the Republicans win once again and laugh their asses off.