Goddammit. You are not going to die from the Bird Flu!

[Dark]

Did you die from SARS? West Nile?

Each of those had 'experts' talking out of their ass about how these diseases were going to annihalate mankind.

The 'experts' just want their fifteen minutes. That 150 million figure? The 'expert' was chastised for being so alarmist, and the next day dropped it to 7 million.

Now, there are 6 BILLION people in the world. Who do you think is more likely to die from this disease, if it does become 'pandemic'? A person who has no clean water, pharmacies, drugs, and are starving as we speak? Do you know how many people that describes?

Or Joe Six-Pack, who is sitting on his couch feasting on pork rinds and Budweiser while his wife sits next to him taking a prozac, ritalin, zoloft, zantac, tylenol, and zyrtec while they're roasting in their subarban fortress. Do you know how many people THAT describes?

We need to send the Tamiflu to the people who will actually need it: The poor in Asia, the middle east, Africa, and Eastern Europe. They are the ones who can't take precautions, other than to stop existing. They will need the medicine.

I'm not saying don't take logical precautions, but don't panic as if armageddon was here.

[jobycom]

1. Logical precautions include considering worst case scenarios.

That's not the same as panicing.

[Avalux]

2. With all due respect -

unless you are an infectious diseases specialist and have studied the diseases you are speaking about, please do not make assumptions. Unless you understand the microbiology of H5N1, how it mutates, how it recombines, how it' s transmitted.......these sorts of comparisons are careless.

If a pandemic occurs, people will die all over the world. This virus will not discriminate and stay in Asia - it will spread everywhere regardless of what country one lives in, or whether or not they're stereotyped as Joe Six-Pack.

This is a serious subject - panic is not necessary of course, but please do not make light of it.

[Dark]

3. I'm not making fun of it,

I'm pointing out that there are people who are in real danger, and this insanity here is ignoring the people who are truly vulerable.

The very young and elderly, of course, but also the people in poorer countries. They will need the cure.

[Avalux]

5. There is no cure

Tamiflu will lessen the symptoms (we think) - a vaccine will not be available to everyone who needs it; if there even is one that works.

Everyone will be vulnerable to this virus - no one alive on the planet has any natural immunity to it - it will not discriminate.

[MadisonProgressive]

13. They can develop a vaccine until it mutates

otherwise, it's a waste of time.

[Avalux]

16. The virus that will cause a pandemic isn't here yet

It will have to recombine with human influenza A to allow widespread human to human transmission. A vaccine at this point will be marginal. Besides; big pharma isn't interested in making a vaccine - reasons are money and liability.

[OzarkDem]

21. Thanks for all your info

I read through your earlier posts and links this morning and found them very helpful.

[Avalux]

22. You're very welcome.

Best thing is to be informed. We know there is an element of sensationalization about this by our government and the media; however, if this virus takes that last step to pandemic, it will be serious for everyone (speaking as a scientist).

[renie408]

4. Hey, you sound like you know way more about this than I do

And I am starting to get worried about my kids. Are there any precautions we can take? Should I check out the site that was mentioned in another post, the one for the CDC? I just want to take logical precautions.

[Avalux]

6. Yes; go check out the CDC website -

there's a wealth of info:

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/

And, for myself and my family - I plan on having supplies for at least a month and self-quarantining if necessary IF A PANDEMIC OCCURS.

It's a big IF though - I doubt it will happen this year, but probably will happen within the next several years.

[Coastie for Truth]

11. Next step--

After reading Molecular Biology Made Simple and Fun by David P. Clark and Lonnie D. Russell--
<>
go to the other NIH web site at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi
and do a periodic "current awareness" search on "H5N1" and "Avian flu"

[Debau2005]

7. The logical precautions

are the same as for any other type of flu. Wash hands frequently, keep your kids and family away from people that are sick, don't eat or drink after anyone, etc.

Should we be concerned? yes
Should we go into full crisis mode? no

This is another tactic by the administration to scare people to death. Go on with your daily routine, and don't run into the streets in full panic.

[iconoclastNYC]

33. Handwashing as a religion.

That's the best way to prevent infectious disease. Tho you probably know that.

[Coastie for Truth]

8. You are making a lot of assumption about virology and immunology

I would suggest a read of Molecular Biology Made Simple and Fun by David P. Clark and Lonnie D. Russell, especially chapter 19 on virology and immunology.
<>

[Debau2005]

9. We had the same panic last year

when there was not enough flu vaccine for everyone. If you ask around, the only people in panic mode are the ones that pay attention to the news. Half of America probably does not even know that there is a bird flu issue, or what a pandemic is. If it does not show up in People Magazine or the National Enquirer, Americans will never know!

[LizMoonstar]

10. West Nile in suburbia.

My mom had West Nile last summer (I think it was, could've been the one before), and she lives in the Minneapolis suburbs. Fortunately, she's a very healthy woman, so she recovered fine. My point is, it happens, even in the *gasp* suburbs.

[renie408]

12. I live in the Southeast and West Nile is a concern

but mostly for our horses. It is nearly always fatal for horses.

[iconoclastNYC]

34. I've had Lyme Disease

Tons of hype around Lyme when it started popping up back when, doesn't mean people weren't affected. Hype is beneficial sometimes.

[The Witch]

14. rec'd. I got a little hysterical myself

but you're absolutely right.

[Debau2005]

15. No known cases of person to person transmission as of yet.

http://www.cnn.com/2005/HEALTH/conditions/10/10/birdflu.warning.ap/index.html

We will have another pandemic. It may be this, or it may be something else. As the article states there have three influenza pandemics in the last century.

Running around in panic like Chicken Little, screaming the sky is falling is irresponsible.

I agree with the first post, we should allow the experts to concentrate their efforts on the areas already affected and areas that we know will be hit hardest.

Hoarding medications for personal use, helps no one. And again, shows the world how selfish and uncaring the United States is when it comes to supporting our world neighbors.

[Dark]

42. But how many were recent. We've advanced since the days of leeches and

laudanum.

[Love Bug]

17. Thank you!

25 million die EACH YEAR from hunger -- I think that puts 7 million into perspective.

[bluedawg12]

18. there is a danger- but it's not predictable, here's some info.

Info at the W.H.O. link.


http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/globalagenda/en/index.html


..................

New England Journal of Medicine

Previous Volume 353:1374-1385 September 29, 2005 Number 13

Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Infection in Humans
The Writing Committee of the World Health Organization (WHO) Consultation on Human Influenza A/H5

“An unprecedented epizootic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus that is highly pathogenic has crossed the species barrier in Asia to cause many human fatalities and poses an increasing pandemic threat. This summary describes the features of human infection with influenza A (H5N1) and reviews recommendations for prevention and clinical management presented in part at the recent World Health Organization (WHO) Meeting on Case Management and Research on Human Influenza A/H5, which was held in Hanoi, May 10 through 12, 2005.1 Because many critical questions remain, modifications of these recommendations are likely...

Conclusions

Infected birds have been the primary source of influenza A (H5N1) infections in humans in Asia. Transmission between humans is very limited at present, but continued monitoring is required to identify any increase in viral adaptation to human hosts. Avian influenza A (H5N1) in humans differs in multiple ways from influenza due to human viruses, including the routes of transmission, clinical severity, pathogenesis, and perhaps, response to treatment. Case detection is confounded by the nonspecificity of initial manifestations of illness, so that detailed contact and travel histories and knowledge of viral activity in poultry are essential. Commercial rapid antigen tests are insensitive, and confirmatory diagnosis requires sophisticated laboratory support. Unlike human influenza, avian influenza A (H5N1) may have higher viral titers in the throat than in the nose, and hence, analysis of throat swabs or lower respiratory samples may offer more sensitive means of diagnosis. Recent human isolates are fully resistant to M2 inhibitors, and increased doses of oral oseltamivir may be warranted for the treatment of severe illness. Despite recent progress, knowledge of the epidemiology, natural history, and management of influenza A (H5N1) disease in humans is incomplete. There is an urgent need for more coordination in clinical and epidemiologic research among institutions in countries with cases of influenza A (H5N1) and internationally. “

[zanne]

19. Let's all panic now.

There are SOOOOOO many things that could happen, you have to put it in perspective. In NH, we've had two deaths from EEE this past summer. My sister, a very intelligent, level-headed accountant, stayed indoors all summer because there's no vaccine for it. That's dying ahead of time.

[OzarkDem]

20. I have the sniffles, and a headache

are you sure? I was going to seal myself indoors with duct tape around my doors and windows, but I guess its too late now.

I'm starting to feel feverish, too...

:P

[stray cat]

23. We won't know the difference until its too late.

[cassiepriam]

24. Yes, but I am starting to sprout feathers and trill a lot....

[windbreeze]

25. Use Common Sense...

In other words...
IMO...yes, it could be a problem...but when or how? Don't we have enough to worry about already??? We should make ourselves ill, worrying about becoming ill, some time in the future?
It is a known fact that * likes using the fear factor..."The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself"..
I suggest those who are scared shitless...go their local health food store, pick up a natural immune system booster, and start taking it...
Protect yourself as best you can, have your disaster stores handy, and don't take any vaccines, just because the gov't wants you to...unless you trust them to be looking out for your best interests...
The best thing is not to panic...but be prepared to take care of you and yours...keep your eyes and ears open for pertinent information..and act accordingly...
windbreeze

[cwydro]

26. Thanks for the common sense

post. We could all use a little more of that. Most of us here on DU totally disdain the MSM, so why do we believe them on this one???

Now I'll stop worrying when I wake up wanting to sing at daybreak...chirp.

[seabeyond]

27. weekend i talked to nurse 30 yrs in hospital in denver, today i talked

to a nurse in training in hospital in amarillo. neither have heard of this, but on the news. the hospital and medical dont seem to be talking it. both women dismissed it the same as you suggest, other flu. sars and west niles.

both voted for bush. i suggested to them, before bush sends in the military and quarantines regions, he might ought to contact the hospitals with this holocaust that is coming our way. both were disgusted

so,..... any nurses or doctors around the country hearing your hospitals gearing up for this. even talking about this. i would think the medical field would be the front line and preparing for this disaster.

let me know what you hear from those in medical field. none seem aware, let alone concerned

[depakid]

28. Wow- you sure need to do your homework

But you can go on whistling Dixie if you like. I'm too tired to argue the science with you (or anyone else) anymore. been doing it here on DU re: this issue for a year & a half- and at this point, there's not much sense in it anymore.

[bluedawg12]

30. If we didn't die then SARS was not a threat?

getting legitimate science confused with illegitimate political
opportunism.

Viral pandemics are a threat. Denying their risk and the need for preparedness is dangerous.

[leesa]

29. Thank you. It's so idiotic the way people fall for this fearmongering

every year. I guess MSM just does it to keep in shape.

[onenote]

32. so exactly who are the idiots?

Is the MSM a tool of the World Health Organization, which is advising countries to take immediate steps to prepare for a possible pandemic or is the World Helath Organization a tool of the MSM, inventing these threats just for giggles?

onenote

[thinkingwoman]

31. You can't convince people

who don't want to be convinced.

There is a distinct group of people who crave armageddon as much as the fundies do...only by different means.

The fundies believe "God" will wipe out a huge chunk of the population. The far left fanatics believe the great kill off will be "natural."

Both are looking for a clean slate to start over and create their version of utopia. :eyes:

The rest of us (reasonable people from all walks of life) understand that there will always be "natural" epidemics but we don't scream that the sky is falling at each "virus of the week" pronouncement.

You can't convince true believers though. They don't want to be reasonable. :shrug:

[rockymountaindem]

35. You hit the nail right on the head.

People who say "Mother nature is trying to get rid of us with hurricaines" are no better than those who say "God sent that hurricane to New Orleans because He hates Mardi Gras".

[thinkingwoman]

39. Yep, it's the same thing...

only different. :eyes;

[Dark]

36. I know, but

I'm tired of seeing ten threads in each forum about how the Bird flu is going to obliterate us.

I stopped going to church because all I ever heard was 'You're going to hell, you're going to hell, the world is going to end any day now'

I am not someone who believes that the apocalypse is nigh. The only thing that can destroy the human race is the human race.

And I am tired of seeing it in the media, the 'SARS' threat, and the 'West Nile' threat. How about the nuclear threat, terrorist threat, or economic defecit threat? What about those?

[thinkingwoman]

40. I support you...

and don't let those "are you a scientist" replies get to you either. My ex-hubby is a microbiologist and my current hubby has a biology degree and both think the fearmongering is out of control.

What gets me are the threads by people saying their own doctor has told them there's no serious threat that get attacked by fear mongers spouting such nonsense as "what kind of doctor is it" and "what do they know" bs.

[Dark]

41. I know.

I'm not a scientist, but I am human. I know that everytime we year we hear about some new virus or bacteria that is going to kill every living thing. And you know what?

It doesn't become a problem. Because we contain the virus, and keep it from getting out.

Come April, there won't have been an epidemic, a plague, or anything else. It's just like the people talking about the draft. Everybody was convinced that it was going to happen in Summer of 2003, then 2004, and then 2005.

Nothing happened. Some people just love to be alarmist.

People reference the 1917 flu, but that was almost a CENTURY ago. I think that modern science has advanced a little farther than leeches and laudanum.

[adigal]

37. Yes, I am...Bush told me so

AAARRRRRRRGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

All sarcasm aside, I agree. We need to keep our eyes on it, and take logical precautions, but I don't think it will wipe out a lot of our country.

Then again, I may be wrong.

[Timmy5835]

38. A vaccine is here

Scientists at the Univ. of Rochester have come up with an Avian Flu vaccine. They have already concluded the tests with younger people where they were pleased with the results. The tests now focus on older people. This story was on the BACK page of todays L.A. Times.

[zann725]

43. I spoke with an elderly Asian woman last evening who said...

that Bird Flu has been around for YEARS in Asia, but has NOT created huge mortality rates. She said it usually occurs in rural areas where the rural families consider chicken(s) "part of the family", and keep them indoors...thus creating illness among family members at times...and at times, death.

Also, did you see MSM coverage of the world health experts yesterday meeting in Asia? They were walking around examining the potentially "dangerous" chickens. "Experts" wearing only CLOTH mouth masks, and CLOTH lab coats...not a HASMET suit in sight! THESE are the guys in charge of protecting US?!!