Why can't someone convince Jerry Baliles to run against Allen in '06?

[dolstein]

At this point it looks like incumbent Virginia Senator George Allen and possible '08 presidential candidate is going to get a free ride in next year's Senate election. I can think of a few reasons why. Warner must be savoring Kaine's victory last night, and if a real candidate were fielded to run against Allen next year, it would almost inevitably be viewed as a proxy fight between Warner and Allen. Thanks to last night's victory, Warner is already 1-0 in that fight. He might want to rest on his laurels.

Another reason -- and bear with me here -- is that it could prove awkward for Hillary Clinton. Here's why -- any smart candidate would try to force Allen to take the pledge -- that is, to pledge to serve a complete second term. After all, why shold voters vote for anyone who for Senate when what that person really wants to do is run for president? Having that argument made by a respectable Democratic candidate could prove awkward for Hillary.

But still, Baliles was a pretty popular former governor and former state attorney general. No, he isn't as well known as Chuck Robb and Doug Wilder, the Democrats who served as governor before and after him. But unlike Robb, Baliles appears to be clean as a whistle. And he hasn't picked as many political fights as Wilder has over the yeras. I don't know if he could beat Allen (a lot of people have moved into the state since Baliles left the governor's mansion in 1990). But he'd certainly make Allen earn any victory, and even a narrow victory could scuttle Allen's presidential chances.

[WI_DEM]

1. better yet would be for Gov. Warner to run against Allen

it would be a slam bang win for the Dems, given Warner's popularity.

[dolstein]

6. No, it's more important for Warner to run for President

Warner can't run for senate and then for president two years later. Yeah, I know that's what Allen's trying to do, but Allen's the incumbent.

And putting Warner in the Senate simply means the Democrats have one more vote. Putting Warner in the White House means that the Democrats control judicial nominations and have a veto over Congress.

[Clark2008]

11. Actually, I think he should run for Senator.

He might actually beat Allen in Virginia, but I'm not so sure he would in the rest of the red-states.

Maybe...

[WI_DEM]

14. I just don't think one term as Governor will be enough to distinguish

Warner if he is up against somebody like McCain. But it would be a sure thing for him (practically) if he ran for Senate. Warner is young, and he will have other chances at president.

[dolstein]

17. He's also a very successful businessman

Unlike George Bush, who relied upon his father's name and political connections, Mark Warner EARNED his fortune. Personally, I'd like the Dems to nominate someone who hasn't spent his entire adult life in public office. I'd rather nominate someone with a military background (like Wes Clark) or a business background (like Warner).

[Ignacio Upton]

16. I'm conflicted about what Warner should do

On one hand I want him to run for President. He is electable as a sothern moderate (Edwards has the "loser" label on him, and Clark is the only other candidate but I'm not sure if he will run again.) and has proven to govern in a Clintonesque way (balancing the budget and cleaning up the deficit that Gilmore left behind. He did it by raising taxes and was not hurt politically by it, in fact moderate Republicans in the state legislature helped him.) without the scandal of Monica.
However, Allen will be the toughest GOP candidate out of all the prospective candidates (let's not kid ourselves into thinking McCain actually has a chance to get nominated) and can appeal to the same "bubba" voters that Bush got in 2000 and 2004. He also has this phony "good ole' boy" image, and can use his father's past as Redskins coach to attract some apolitical or semi-political voters. If Warner knocks Allen off then the GOP will have no strong candidates in 2008.

[abluelady]

13. I Agree

I am wondering if Doug Wilder is thinking of running against Allen.

[The_Casual_Observer]

2. allen is just the kind of guy that will get his ass kicked in the next

election season. A bush loyalist scumbag. Another santorum.

[dolstein]

7. Not if nobody runs against him.

NT

[Dr.Phool]

3. Get anyone to run against Allen!!!!

[FSogol]

4. How old is Jerry Ballies? What has he been doing? n/t

[dolstein]

8. I think he's younger than 65 -- he's been in private practice

He's running the international law practice of Hunton & Williams, one of the top law firms in Virginia. He also serves on corporate boards and has set up an education foundation.

Here's an article describing some of the things he's done since leaving office: http://www.baconsrebellion.com/Issues03/10-20/Baliles.htm

Here's his Hunton & Williams bio page: http://www.hunton.com/bios/bio.aspx?id=15101

He's probably enjoying himself too much and making too much money to consider re-entering politics. Elections have gotten much dirtier (and MUCH more expensive) since he left office. And a run against George Allen would probably get pretty nasty, simply because the Republicans have so much at stake.

[BonnieJW]

5. You're right

Anyone running against Bozo Allen would win and Mark Warner should be that someone. I don't think he would get the pres nomination.

[dolstein]

9. Warner's chances against Allen aren't much better than his pres. odds

Why on earth would Warner want to bet his political career on a race against Allen when he could run for president instead? Warner's executive material -- I can't imagine he'd have much interest in serving in the U.S. Senate, which isn't a fun place to be if you're a Democrat these days. If Warner gets the Democratic nomination, he's have a good shot at becoming president. And if Warner doesn't get the nomination, he can always run for governor again in '09.

[bluedeminredstate]

10. Agree.

I think Warner should be the one to run. He doesn't stand a chance at the WH unless he pulls off a Clinton miracle and I don't know if we have that mojo.
George Allen, along with a few others, is one of the stupidest fools in the Senate. Not to mention his negatives such as dismantling the VA Dept of Transportation in favor of privitization which was a fiscal disaster we're still dealing with, the dustup about his wife getting a cushy seat on the board of Virginia Power, and his reputation for tone deafness on racial issues - here's a man who proudly displayed the stars and bars in his law office. With the mood among Blacks toward Bush, this won't help if used against him.
He's a mental midget and a smart race with a big name might unseat the suckup to the right wing of the GOP.
He's not getting the love he used to now that people have seen a real Governor, and the national party needs to help this red state run a viable candidate.

:popcorn:

[dolstein]

15. Sorry, but I think you're very naive

George Allen is no pushover. If Warner ran against him, the race would still be a toss-up. And if Warner loses, he can forget about running for president. And if Warner wins, he gets to serve in a Senate that will almost certain remain under Republican control. Why would Warner ever want to do that? He'd be better off simply waiting another four years and running for governor again. At least then he'd have a job he likes.

Personally, I think Warner will run for president. If he doesn't win the nomination, I don't think the voters of Virginia will hold it against him if he chooses to run for governor again in 2009. And I believe his chances are better than you think. A lot of people don't want Hillary Clinton to be the nominee, so anyone who emerges as a credible alternative to Hillary is bound to attract a lot of support. Warner's worth $200 million, so he won't be short of cash, and he'll have a one year head start on nearly everyone else.

[DaveinMD]

12. I'd like

Claudia Kennedy to run. She'd be a geat candidate.