What if Iraq dissolves into open Civil War...

[WCGreen]

The chaos would threaten not only Iraq, but the entire region. If this happens, GWB could go down in history as the man who fired the shot that caused WW111...

Here are some things to ponder as we get ready to celebrate Thanksgiving...

First, if you remember, Turkey was very skeptical of the planned Bush invasion of Iraq. A country poised between the middle east and Europe, Turkey naturally walks a fine line. Any chance of integrating with the European Union will require the leadership an Ankara to hold the fundamentalist brand of Islam at bay. They also have a Kurdish problem. A large segment of the Turkish population identifies itself as Kurdish and the dream of a greater Kurdistan has percolated for centuries throughout this region. An unstable Iraq could lead to an autonomous oil rich Kurdish province acting like a beacon of nationhood to the displaced and segregated Kurdish population of Turkey.

Turkey could dissolve into open warfare and Chaos if this happens. This in the door step of Europe.

Second, the Kurdish population in Northern Iran would love nothing more than to get out from under the Iranian yoke and integrate with the at least autonomous province of Iraq. This could cause a huge problem for Iran.

Third, if civil war erupts, Iran could be pulled in from two directions. They are already funding and arming the Shiite population in southern Iraq. They could be facing an at home insurgency if the Iranian Kurds make a strong move for independence.

Fourth, Israel would be under intense pressure from within to intervene to keep Iran from gaining even more wealth and power in the region. A fundamentalist regime within easy striking distance with the power and might of a nuclear armed Iran behind it would cause Israel to mount a preemptive attack on Iran.

Fifth, If Israel attacks Iran, the Palestinians would see an opening for recapturing all of Palestine. The temptation may prove to much for the peace accords to hold at bay.

Sixth, sensing that the US was severely weakened by their involvement in the Iraqi conflict, radicals across the region would be emboldened. An America perceived as impotent would erase once onerous threat of US intervention.

After that, anything could happen.

South America could see a chance to remove US presence on the continent. Europe could face the real possibility of the French riots spreading across all of Europe as Islamic minorities revolt in support of their brothers in the Middle East. anti-Semitism could explode as right wing political figures across Europe exploit the Middle East turmoil as another example of the Zionism being at the center of all international problems.

And these various possibilities do not even consider the effect all this could have in the Far East and across the Indian Sub Continent.

So, the Iraqi conflict could still result in a peaceful, democratic Middle East. But history has not, despite the claims of many in the late 1990's, died. And, unfortunately for us all, History does have a strong track record of repeating itself.

[Davis_X_Machina]

1. It already has...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=174119&mesg_id=174119">NYT article in Editorials forum

[FogerRox]

5. DAvis--- yes it has-- U R right

lets see-- ethnic cleansing-- Assasinations-- at will

Yeah that could be called Civil war

[butterfly77]

17. AGREED

[Freedom_from_Chains]

2. What do you mean by if

At this point that is the most probable outcome.

[WCGreen]

3. Yes, but no one seems to be looking at the ramifications

that would bring....

Most Americans believe if that happens, America will not be deeply effected...

[Freedom_from_Chains]

8. Then most Americans are incorrect. But that's not news.

[WCGreen]

16. Not incorrect....

Ill imformed....

[BJW]

4. What about the UN?

[Old and In the Way]

6. Most here predicted this would happen.

The irony is, it will take another strong leader, like Saddam Hussein, to keep the 3 divergent populations in check and hold the artificial state of Iraq together. Instead of a tyrant with a moderately secular and independent vision for Iraq, we'll end up with a tyrant that'll have a radical relgious agenda, assuring continued civil wars for a generation to come.

[WCGreen]

7. Across the whole region......

that is the problem....

I posted pretty much the same scenario on Bartcop back in 2002, during the war frenzy...

Wasn't that the most despicable time to be an American.....

[Old and In the Way]

9. Sucks to be proven right....in hindsight.

I get no particular joy in knowing I was right and the mess is evolving in the way I figured it would. Bush, to get his 'war pResident' moment and advance the agenda of the neocons, has pulled the grenade pin...and it's only a matter of time before it blows up completely.

[WCGreen]

12. Especially the way things have turned out here....

[Mountainman]

10. Is the killing and destruction going on now better than the killing and

destruction of a civil war? At least in a civil war our troops won't be the ones killed.

[WCGreen]

11. But we could have prevented the carnage if Bush and

Co. would have had a coherent plan....

Instead of strutting around on an aircraft carrier...

[Critters2]

13. Could have

but that opportunity has flown. Iraq will almost certainly degenerate into a civil war. Yet, I think that's an issue for the Iraqis to deal with. I have no problem with 3 separate nations, but, again, as a non-Iraqi, I should have no say. We went to remove Saddam Hussein, and find WMDs. Hussein is deposed and there were no WMDs. Our work is done.

[WCGreen]

15. If we would have left 2.5 years ago, yes...

But now...

It really is a no win situation...

[AZBlue]

14. Exactly. And, as the ones who caused this, don't we have...

...some responsiblity to help clean this up?? I don't want another American solider killed or wounded. I don't want another Iraqi killed or wounded either. And, I don't think the solution lies in the US trying to "fix" this alone.

But, what kind of people are we if we create this hell in Iraq and then say, "Oops, our mistake. Ok, gotta go. This isn't working out for us so well after all." And, this won't just affect Iraq and its citizens - it will affect the whole area. Can we really live with that?? What kind of disgusting person does that??