Have the Dem's overplayed their hand?

[nickshepDEM]

Im just curious as to what you guys/gals think.

We've won just about every PR battle since the 2004 election. Social Security, Iraq is swinging our way, Plame/Libby, etc...

But with the upcomming elections in Iraq, the 'good news' about the economy, falling gas prices, and a potential fight over Alito that will rally his base. Do you we think we've overplayed our hand in regard to 2006?

Have we bottomed Bush out to far from the '06 midterms?

[stevedeshazer]

1. Hell no

'Nuff said.

[TallahasseeGrannie]

2. Absolutely not

I think we have a great chance in 06. Look at the polls.

[nickshepDEM]

3. Thats my point. Its a year away. If his numbers rebound so too

will the Republicans in congress.

[hwmnbn]

11. If is a mighty big word.....

I don't see much hope Iraq will get better. The winter heating prices will draw more attention and anger. Plamegate is still in the spotlight and will drag out thru next year. All the other repug corruption scandals are percolating.

And he still has time to fuck up other areas. What good thing can he do now, that he couldn't do before? If they could have done something to stop his poll freefall, them bastards would have done it by now.

It's our job to keep him accountable. We won't let anyone forget the reasons his numbers are in the toilet, where they belong.

[nickshepDEM]

14. Good points.

Im just being cautious though. I see some events on the horizon that could boost his numbers. Like an improving economy, falling gas prices (now under $2), his base comming home, and the upcomming elections in Iraq.

[AZBlue]

57. OMG - MD has gas under $2?! I KNEW I shouldn't have left the East Coast

We're lucky to find it under $2.50 here in hot, boring, backwards, red Arziona.

[nickshepDEM]

67. 1.99 at some stations.

[rzemanfl]

4. It's just that BushCo hasn't screwed up anything new for a couple

of weeks, give them time. You know they will.

[ddeclue]

28. There's still plenty of indictments to hand out

...and trials to cover before Nov 2006.

This is Nixon 1973 all over again... nowhere to go but down.

[Clarkie1]

5. I have no idea what you are talking about.

I don't know what you mean by "overplaying our hand."

Edit: Get some starch!

[nickshepDEM]

9. Yeah, I guess that wasnt a good phrase. What I mean is.

We're doing so well, but the elections are still a year away. You know you have to hit bottom before you come back up and sooner or later Bush's numbers will come back up. I pointed out reasons why in the opening post. Gas prices are falling, the economy is chugging along, his base left him over Miers, but they're comming home, the Iraqi elections and his state of the union will give him a nice bounce.

[Clarkie1]

16. I still don't understand what you are talking about.

Please, get some starch.

[nickshepDEM]

20. Well, the 16 other posters understood me loud and clear.

My point is, Bush's has possibly bottomed out a year before the election.

I was just wondering what other people thought on the issue. Has he reall bottomed out? Did we overplay our hand? Will he rebound? If so, how high? Will it be in time for the midterms? Or are things only going to get worse for him?

If you need further assistance in understanding please feel free to PM me.

[Clarkie1]

26. What is the point of this discussion?

Whether he has "bottomed out" or not doesn't matter.

Why should we expend energy trying to predict the future or figuring out whether Bush has "bottomed out?" There is no way to determine that anyway, unless someone has a crystal ball that works. We need to be proactive, not reactive. This is a reactive post, not proactive.

Thank God all our leaders finally seem to be getting some starch and are not such Nervous Nillies.

[nickshepDEM]

27. Just tell me whether you think Bush will rebound by 2006.

If so, why? If not, why?

Because if the elections were held today we'd be in GREAT shape, but the fact is they are still a year away.

[Clarkie1]

29. I'm not going to waste energy considering that question.

It would be pointless.

We have work to do.

[nickshepDEM]

38. Ok, thanks for your contribution to the thread.

[Clarkie1]

64. Look, don't take this personally....

but in my opinion this thread serves no useful purpose whatsoever.

The only reason I'm posting here is in the hope of discouraging similar discussions in the future.

Waste of time and energy.

[nickshepDEM]

65. Speculating is a waste of time?

Discussing our strategy to keep Bush's negatives low is a waste of time. Whatever.

[AZBlue]

60. What kind of work is more important in political races than strategy &...

...planning?

Your "naysaying" isn't needed here and isn't helping anything except the Repubicans - we need positive action and momentum. We shouldn't ever forget for one minute just how good they are at this game.

[ClassWarrior]

30. But 2008 is THREE years away, and you already seem to have...

...made up your mind. Why is one year such a big deal?

NGU.

[nickshepDEM]

36. Ive already found the best candidate and the best man for the job.

[sandyd921]

45. Like Clarkie1 said

the only way we can approach this is to keep on keeping on. We have to be proactive. Plus we can't be distracted by the poll numbers. We can celebrate when they seem to be going in the right direction, but we cannot and should not retrench every time the numbers go up (or down for that matter). We also should always be guided in our responses by our principles. The goal is not the next election, it is to affect long-term change in the way that people think about the role of government and what's important for our long-term survival and prosperity. Along the way we don't want to neglect reminding people that the scary things that are happening around them or impacting their lives, whether it's Katrina, the war in Iraq, torture, cuts to vital programs like food stamps, veterans, student aid, education, health care, help with heating this winter, etc., etc. (that are going to have significant impacts on middle class and working class families) are the result of a corrupt government and a minimalist approach to governing in which government is not seen as having the potential to postively impact people's lives. And we need to keep reminding them who has brought all these evils upon them!

[sandyd921]

46. Like Clarkie1 said

the only way we can approach this is to keep on keeping on. We have to be proactive. Plus we can't be distracted by the poll numbers. We can celebrate when they seem to be going in the right direction, but we cannot and should not retrench every time the numbers go up (or down for that matter). We also should always be guided in our responses by our principles. The goal is not the next election, it is to affect long-term change in the way that people think about the role of government and what's important for our long-term survival and prosperity. Along the way we don't want to neglect reminding people that the scary things that are happening around them or impacting their lives, whether it's Katrina, the war in Iraq, torture, cuts to vital programs like food stamps, veterans, student aid, education, health care, help with heating this winter, etc., etc. (that are going to have significant impacts on middle class and working class families) are the result of a corrupt government and a minimalist approach to governing in which government is not seen as having the potential to postively impact people's lives. And we need to keep reminding them who has brought all these evils upon them!

[Joe Chi Minh]

43. A thriving economy (usually, putatively, in any case)

means absolutely zero, if the people find that they, themsleves, are not benefiting from it, and can only take the truth of its being the case on the word of.... wait for it.... journalists! Something approaching a just - nay, now even a barely adequate, DISTRIBUTION of the nation's wealth is paramount.

As it is, when people in the UK, for example, hear that the country is richer than it has ever been, although they realise that the crooks are merely discounting their nationality as citizens of the country, can't help feeling that they are being deliberately mocked. The criminals not only get to keep the spoils, but they can't resist mocking their victims.

[Zynx]

50. The economy is doing relatively well...now, but a year from now might

be a different story. The housing market has clearly topped out as is shown by both statistical and anecdotal evidence and if that starts declining rapidly, people's already negative perception of the economy will sour. We are much closer to the end of this growth cycle than to its beginning.

[froshty1960]

56. The Economy - is it really thriving?

I keep hearing that the economy is thriving, but for whom? Certainly not for the Gulf coast. And certainly not for me. It's very hard to find a job if you're laid off. It's taking longer to find new work if you lose your job.

Also, the MSM are saying that this is going to be a flat Christmas, and I agree. Sure, gas prices are down from $2 a gallon, but compare that to what gas cost a year ago. Oil and natural gas heating bills will be much higher than they were last year, and they were bad then. People are hunkering down and not spending to prepare for these bills. Also, we at DU are skeptical of what we hear on the radio and on TV, but many people take what the MSM say as gospel when it comes to the economy and probably will stay away from the stores because they heard on TV that no one is buying.

So, will the economy look so good in a few months? I doubt it. Will it look great in November 2006? I'm not sure. We have a whole new hurricane season to go through before elections. I'm hopeful that * won't rebound that much.

[splat]

6. Dems need some new candidates

People want an alternative to the right-wing, but not the same old candidates they didn't vote for before. There's no good news on the economy if you have to heat your home, fear layoffs at work and loss of health care benefits.

[searchingforlight]

13. You are right.

The american people are tired of rhetoric and the same old faces. We need to have a new face to offer or we may just lose to apathy or exhaustion no matter how RIGHT we are.

[nickshepDEM]

15. End of year financial issues.

Companies will be issuing strong earnings reports and positive statements about inflation fears easing. Also, many stocks will issue year-end dividends--some for the first time in quite a while. This will highlight the economy.

[splat]

22. Only rich people think the economy is good

Nick, "Companies will be issuing strong earnings reports" because they've downsized and laid off to meet Wall Street's demand for profits. And then next year they have to do it again -- there's not much room left. Housing is still too high, and people who bought earlier and just live in their homes are watching their property taxes soar. Bush will think the economy is improving because he doesn't know any ordinary people.

[nickshepDEM]

23. Good point, but what about...

5% unemployment?

[splat]

42. 5% unemployment and no pay raises.

Nick, those companies aren't making money, they're cutting expenses to the bone to show a bottom line Wall Street won't clobber them for. There are no raises, fewer workers, lots of part-time and under-the-table work and lousy-paying retail jobs.

Heating costs have taken the flexibility out of everybody's budget, and the price of food has risen sharply due to fuel costs to get it to stores -- Christmas isn't going to be good unless deep discounts happen, and even then the people I know says it's going to be a practical Christmas, warm clothes and money, no frills.

Bush has completely lost the black vote forever, and he's not offering anything to the middle class at all. Iraq is sucking the money out of everything, including Pell grants for college.

People know he's out of touch now, and don't feel good about America.

I've not really heard much about your Mark Warner. I just recently figured out he's not John Warner.

[Joe Chi Minh]

44. Slave labour? Two parents doing four or more part-time jobs?

To barely survive? In real terms, the remuneration of most people in both our countries has been remorselessly falling.

But, with your putatively pending recovery of the neocons' fortunes, you are obviously judging them by the standards of a normal opposition. Which is palpably foolish in the extreme. If the Dem's star was not at a very high point at his juncture, the US would be a lunatic asylum. No. The Dems' popularity can only continue. It's all about the voting machines.

[nickshepDEM]

69. No offense, but what does Warner have to do with this convo?

By the way, if your intersted in learning more click the pic in my sig. :)

[win_in_06]

54. Yep. Economists consider 95% to be full employment.

Gas prices are falling fast and the stock market is healthy and GDP up.

Worst of all, some "experts" are saying its because of the tax cuts.

[Zynx]

53. I'm a hardcore investor and I can tell you quite objectively that most

people don't have such a rosey view of the stock market. Yes, corporate profits are up, but it's a very rare year indeed that they aren't. Earnings are forecast to decelerate next year quite a lot.

Second, your point on dividends makes no sense whatsoever. Companies pay their dividends on a quarterly basis and thus there isn't any year end miracle in terms of people saying, "Look at this dividend check". Thirdly, the VAST majority of people own their stocks through mutual funds that don't pay dividends. Those, like me, who own stocks individually receive a relatively small amount of money in dividends. You know what I get per year in dividends? About $170. Whoopdie fucking doo. Sure it pads my returns a little bit, but it's not like I notice that most of the companies I own stock in have increased their dividends 10% this year. That's only an additional $17 to me and I own relatively high dividend paying stocks.

[nickshepDEM]

70. Thanks for the correction Zynx.

Your posts are always informative. I appreciate that.

[Joe Chi Minh]

47. Not many didn't vote for Kerry.

[TheCowsCameHome]

7. Hell no. The cards are being dealt by the RW. Gifts from heaven.

These jerks in the White House are pulling the rug out from under themselves.

Iraq alone will sink their boat. Be patient.

[ClassWarrior]

8. Interesting to get the DLC perspective.

:puke:

NGU.

[nickshepDEM]

10. What are you talking about?

[snowbear]

18. Only thing I can figure Nick..

Is that because you support Governor Warner.. they think you speak for the entire DLC now?

People forget that even Senator Kerry is a member of the DLC..

I wish we wouldn't have those petty DLC, DNC, D-whatever arguments here..

[Clarkie1]

34. He's talking about spineless Democrats

who spend more time worrying about poll numbers than getting a strong Democratic message out.

[nickshepDEM]

39. Like....

[AZBlue]

61. Um, poll numbers get you elected, along with a strong message.

Can't do one without the other if you want to win.

[Murdock]

12. Caution is prudent..

You are wise to be cautious. The Dems have yet to beat Dubya in any elections.. It would be pure folly to underestimate Rove and what they're capable of.

[AuntPatsy]

17. Give me a break, what their capable of? I believe it is old news,

they have used the same means time after time and if one doesn't have a clue as to what they are capable of at this point, than they haven't been paying attention....

[Joe Chi Minh]

48. In your dreams! But welcome to DU.

[AZBlue]

62. Exactly! (and welcome to DU!) (n/t)

[AuntPatsy]

19. You really don't make alot of sense. The fight has only just begun...

and if you have been taken a tally lately, we are finaly winning points, more than enough...

[nickshepDEM]

21. True, but my only worry is.

All of this 'good news' is happending to far from the 2006 midterms.

[Clarkie1]

35. One of my worries is that Dems worry far too much. eom

[AuntPatsy]

40. I understand your fear but we have to look at it this way, if the guns

had not been brought out now, there is no telling what they could have accomplished to ensure the public continues to remain ignorant of these criminals and or six months is too long in my opinion to give them time to squash all those who oppose them

We just don't have the luxary of a time table at this point, more than political game playing is at stake, much more.

[nickshepDEM]

41. Excellent point.

Thanks!

[mikehiggins]

24. No. If anything we've let too much slide thanks to our DLC cousins

We should have been hammering the GOPukes about the lying all along the line, every opportunity we got. The hesitancy about calling them on their claims just strengthens their case and leaves us playing catch-up from farther and farther behind.

They are lying, and we have to keep screaming it from the housetops.

[nickshepDEM]

25. What do you think about their little stunt yesterday in the house?

Hurts or helps them?

[snowbear]

31. Bill Schneider's comment about who it helped or hurt...

on CNN this morning was interesting.

He said that it's possible the Republicans would have been able to embarrass Democrats had it not been for the foolish behavior of one miss Jean Schmidt.



He said that anyone who could spout off about a decorated war hero like Murth was going too, too far. Bill agreed with Harold Ford, jr. that after Ms. Schmidt's embarrassing display, the honorable thing to do would have been to call off that vote.

[jillan]

32. imho - what happened last nite just proves who really is in control

and it's not Hastert, Haywood, Schmidt.

Think about that in itself - thanks to the dems who never gave up on DeLay, they don't even have their leader!

[TheCowsCameHome]

33. Quite the opposite - The RW thought they owned America, but

little by little their empire has crumbled. They really screwed themselves with their arrogance and misplayed what they had. Ever since the Schiavo circus they have stumbled and faltered, and their decline is both well deserved and unstoppable.

Iraq will seal their coffin. Murtha has opened the door to their badly flawed game.

[Arkana]

37. If this is overplaying our hand, I wish they'd do it more often.

[Joe Chi Minh]

49. In a nutshell!

[Zynx]

51. There are a number of problems with your view on this.

One, Iraqi elections will mean about as much as the constitutional vote meant for him and that's nothing. Maybe some statistically insignificant bounce of a point or two. Also, it's possible the elections might heighten tensions in Iraq and with the insurgency still very strong and perhaps strengthening, Americans will only be more and more fed up with the war.

Two, the economy, even at 3%+ growth rate is not perceived positively by most Americans. Why this is the case is puzzling, but it is the case nonetheless. This is actually really bad news for Bush because growth is more likely than not going to decelerate going into next year and the housing market is beginning to become unhinged in key markets such as DC and New York with inventories rising, sales falling, and prices increases decelerating. If people don't think the economy is good now, why the hell will they with a lower growth rate and worse conditions in real estate a year from now?

Three, gas prices, while falling are still seen as very high. Sure, they aren't $3 a gallon, but people see $2 a gallon or anything near there to be extreme.

Four, the Alito fight will probably not matter one way or the other. However, if it becomes clear the Republican intention is to overturn Roe v. Wade, they will be slaughtered in '06. Right now most Americans don't take the Republicans seriously on that. However, if it became clear that they wanted to put abortion fights back in the states, moderate middle class suburban voters would leave the Republican Party in droves. I've been saying this for years. The Republicans can't win without that vote and even Republican Representative Tom Davis agrees with me on that. There simply isn't enough of a "base" out there to win the election for either party. They both need moderates and overturning Roe v. Wade is a good way to lose those moderates.

[nickshepDEM]

71. Good point on Roe vs Wade. A prime example is the Phily burbs.

[win_in_06]

52. We have to be careful when saying "Iraq is swinging our way"

Are we saying we hope our military fails? That would be playing into the hands of those who say Progressives hate America.

[nickshepDEM]

72. I meant public opinion on the war is swinging our way.

Id never wish bad things on our troops in that region.

[mikelewis]

55. No

[Awsi Dooger]

58. This is when we need to fundamentally capitalize

The slant is in our favor right now perhaps 3-4 points from normal. That's the ideal time to mount massive registration drives and contact independents or soft GOP supporters to pitch our side. Negative news for the other side is flimsy and undependable and hardly foundational longterm unless you sieze the logical opportunities to actually take advantage, not just blabber on TV that the war was wrong and Bush sucks and yada yada.

You don't simplistically wait until the last minute as we did last cycle and expect to bury the Republicans with an avalanche of new voters during a presidential election year. That was always pure mythology and it pissed me off. I had read online reports for years post-2000 that the GOP was quietly mounting registration drives in key areas while we mostly slept.

Once you get a person registered on your side it becomes like a handle, a defining characteristic. Just look at the low percentage who cross over from partisan registration, in the 10% range or less. Right now we're seeing massive evidence independents are leaning our way, so why not nudge a few critical percent to become Democrats not independent? Get some phone calls and literature flowing in their direction and what do you know they might actually consider themselves Democrats. Amazing how that works.

Elections are always about preference, not GOTV or new registers. But in a polarized era like this you need to handicap early and properly, steal that extra one percent or half percent whenever possible. I'm not convinced we're taking the proper steps at the proper time.

[nickshepDEM]

73. So you believe we should be mounting an offense based upon

ad's and lit drops now as a pro-active approach to 2006? Sounds like a pretty good idea actually.

[AZBlue]

59. I see your point and I don't think you're being nervous - once you're on..

..."top" you're stupid to not strategize about staying there. We do have to keep up the fight and now switch partially to the offensive or they will rebound (they wrote the book on it) and we'll be on the bottom again at the wrong time: the '06 elections. However, if we can maintain this trend, we'll have a whole year to back us up come November '06 and we'll be in a beautiful position!

Ignore those on here who don't see your point - a good many DU'ers don't get that politics is about strategy, strategy and strategy. Obviously you do get it - good for you! :toast:

[nickshepDEM]

66. Thank You. Thats all Im saying. Things have been going great for us

lately. Im just worried our luck may run out. Im so pumped about 2006. I wanna' make big gains and I know we need to continue to win these PR battles if we're going to accomplish big things in 2006.

[guidod]

63. Have Dem's overplayed their hand?

No Way! They are just now getting their voices. Social Security is Bush's failure, Iraq is Bush's failureand Plame/Libby/Cheney is just starting. The Dems have no voice in Washington. They are the total minority. Things are going to start getting a lot noisier in Washington because of the Plame case. Cheney will be forced to leave politics on or tight after 2006. It will come to light that he was the catalyst for the entire thing. Fitz has ordered a new Grand Jury and even that crooked John Dean, from the Nixon Watergate era, is saying that this administration makes Watergate look like childs play. No, I feel that the Dems will go to the top and stay there for a whle.

[ulysses]

68. depends on who you ask.

For some in the "professional party ranks", just getting out of bed is evidently overstepping ones bounds.

[gulliver]

74. No. The Republicans just blew the last of their powder.

They just pulled a political trick on a matter of war. It's eerily like what they did to get us into war in the first place. It won't work this time.

Attacking Murtha as a coward for even bringing up the possibility of pulling out the troops will backfire. The people are sick of the war too. The GOP has no choice but to stay in or its their political necks.

[Rodger Dodger]

75. Absolutely not

The Dem's have G.W. boxed in. The only thing he can do is visit military bases and fund raising dinners. He is simply preaching to the choir. Those who attend the dinners will vote for him no matter what. On the other hand he really can't count on getting the majority of the military even though the applaud. They just might be doing it because they believe it's expected of them.

But do they believe him are are they just being polite. Those who attend the dinners feel obligated to attend them. Not to be seen might cause rumors to circulate, regarding their lack of financial support and commitment to their cause.

As far as the military bases are concerned of course they're going to clap at his rhetoric. All their commanders are sitting behind G.W. looking out at their men, who believe they should applaud,on Que when their commanders do.

G.W. Dare not go to an open town hall meeting, before an audience with divers views. He cant think on his feet. He's used to reciting speech's written for him to regurgitate.

[depakid]

76. You've GOT to be kidding. Dems have lost every single battle.

I can't believe anyone would wonder whether the Dem have "overplayed their hand." They've barely ever even fought anything.

They've cowed to the far right on every extremist nominee. Every egregious piece of legislation.

Every single one. Think about it.

Score: Harry Reid and the Dems ZERO. Republicans 100's and still counting.

Worse, they send simpering DINO's like Lieberman and Biden onto the Sunday talk shows almost every week who make the Dems look as bad if not worse than the Republicans- and typically legitimize their policies in the process.

I think some people need a reality check.

[Zynx]

77. We've won the debate on Social Security.

That's a big one. Bush tried to push that with every ounce of his energy and failed.

[Kahuna]

78. No. They need to continue to show strength and leadership..

Americans have been wanting and waiting for them to show some leadership.

[kentuck]

79. What hand....?

We don't have a hand or a plan...remember?

[Vektor]

80. Ehhh...no. We're just getting started. No mercy. Besides....

What do we have to lose, really? They've stolen it all. Why not fight tooth and nail?

And Bush hasn't a stump to stand on. There's no "good news." Iraq is still a quagmire, with innocents dying daily. The economy is still in the toilet. The deficit is insurmountable. The gas prices are still WAY too high and never should have had to "fall" from the dizzying height of $3.00 a gallon in the first place. As far as Alito goes, I'd hesitate to give him, or Bush's nomination of him any credit for "rallying them." They are just a rabid (albeit rapidly dwindling) group of frothing, bigoted maniacs who are only rallied by hate and will eventually self destruct.

Bush's "popularity" (a RW media creation) is going up in smoke a little more each day. Only those wallowing in the most unfathomable depths of fanaticism and depravity support him now.