Democratic Senate- can we find the 6 seats we need to win

[LynneSin]

(Damn - all that hard work and I put the wrong chamber in the title - my bad!)

Over lunchtime I was thinking about our chances of getting a democratic majority in the house. It's going to be a tough job because that means we need to keep every seat we have (including Lieberman) and hope for a few favors from the republicans to boot

• Akaka, Daniel- (D - HI) – Safe D
  
• Allen, George- (R - VA) – Probably R unless Mark Warner tosses his hat into the ring
  
• Bingaman, Jeff- (D - NM) – Probably D
  
• Burns, Conrad- (R - MT) – Probably R. We need to see how the Abramoff case affects Burns who is in deep
  
• Byrd, Robert- (D - WV) – Safe D
  
• Cantwell, Maria- (D - WA) – Probably D
  
• Carper, Thomas- (D - DE) – Safe D
  
• Chafee, Lincoln- (R - RI) – Probably R – Republicans might be going after Chafee in the primaries. If they succeed in outing him it might open up this race for a democratic winner
  
• Clinton, Hillary- (D - NY) – Safe D
  
• Conrad, Kent- (D - ND) – Probably D – Sorry, anytime I see Dakota I still wonder how a democrat gets elected.
  
• Corzine, Jon- (D - NJ) (open) – Probably D – I think it all boils down to whom Gov-Elect Corzine appoints to fill his position and go up against the son of popular former Republican governor Tom Keane
  
• Dayton, Mark- (D - MN) (open) – Toss-up. This use to be a safe D state but in 2002 & 2004 Republicans made significant pickups including Governor & one of the Senate seats. But lately Republicans have been very unpopular in Minnesota. This all boils down to who each party has as a candidate
  
• DeWine, Mike- (R - OH) – Should be D Pick-up but with Diebold I’m gonna safe Safe R. Seriously, who am I kidding to think that somewhat popular DeWine, a member of the highly unpopular & corrupt Ohio Republican party, should be an easy pickoff by either Sherrod Brown or Democratic Darhling Paul Hackett. But Blackwell has the state locked down which almost guarantees republican wins simply because of corrupt voting systems.
  
• Ensign, John- (R - NV) – Probably R. I barely put it in probably, because there isn’t a strong candidate running against Ensign. But it’ll be interesting to see if Minority Leader can sway some votes to help unseat Ensign
  
• Feinstein, Dianne- (D - CA) Safe D
  
• Frist, Bill- (R - TN) (open) Leaning R – Frist is retiring because he wants to run for president and he can’t risk a lost in 2006 either with his election or as majority leader. He’s playing it safe and ‘retiring’ in order to leave on top. Democrats have a strong candidate with Harold Ford but this southern state has been a republican stronghold for awhile.
  
• (Hatch, Orrin- (R - UT) Safe R
  
• Hutchison, Kay- (R - TX) Safe R
  
• Jeffords, James- (I - VT) (open) Probably Independent pickup. Bernie Sanders is the man. Jesus could come back to earth and still not be able to beat Sanders. Although Independent Sanders always sides with the democrats so technically it’ll be a pickup for us.
  
• Kennedy, Edward- (D - MA) Safe D - Jesus probably couldn’t beat Kennedy either
  
• Kohl, Herb- (D - WI) Safe D
  
• Kyl, Jon- (R - AZ) Probably R – Depends on the candidate but this is borderline going into Safe. Is Neopalitano running?
  
• Lieberman, Joseph- (D - CT) Sorry folks – Safe D.
  
• Lott, Trent- (R - MS) Safe R if he doesn’t retire. If he does, with the affects of Katrina on the state of Mississippi, a democrat might be able to have an offside chance but even then I would make the state Leaning R
  
• Lugar, Richard- (R - IN) Safe R
  
• Nelson, Bill- (D - FL) Probably D – Kathering “Cruella DeVille” Harris is running against Nelson and we know about the state of voting in Florida (rivaled only by Ohio). Nelson is polling strong against Harris but with the state of voting in Florida who knows what will happen
  
• Nelson, Ben- (D - NE) Probably D – this is like any of the Dakotas – you scratch your head and wonder how we got the seat but thankfully (well for most of us democrats) this moderate will keep his seat in 2006
  
• Santorum, Rick- (R - PA) Probably D Pick-up – the only state I can say without a doubt that will be in democratic hands by 2006. Probably Democratic nominee is Bob Casey Jr, but personally I think Satan could run against Rick Santorum and we’d still win the seat. If Rick wants a political career after 2006 he might be smart and ‘retire’ like his buddy Frist is in order to save face. Who knows, maybe John Warner will retire in Virginia and Rick can run for senate in his home state
  
• Sarbanes, Paul- (D - MD) (open) This should be a safe democratic seat but Maryland has been funny these past couple of years electing it’s first Republican governor in several decades. Of course said Republican governor isn’t that popular in his state and even his Lt. Gov is bailing by running for the open senate seat left by retiring Paul Sarbanes. Lt. Gov Michael Steele is African American but very conservative. Keeping this seat is going to all be based on who runs on the Democratic ticket
  
• Snowe, Olympia- (R - ME) – Safe R unless the rumors about Snowe retiring are true then I would make the state leaning R
  
• Stabenow, Debbie – Should be Safe D but I’m going with leaning D. Stabenow’s name has been link with the Abramhoff case. We’ll have to see how that pans out but it could put a damper in this popular senator
  
• Talent, James- (R - MO) - Tossup. McCaskill is suppose to be running against unpopular Talent. Missouri seems to switch parties every 2 years so right about now democrats are due for a pickup.
  
• Thomas, Craig- (R - WY) Safe R
  

Current count:

44 Democrats
1 Independent who sides with Democrats
55 Republicans

2006 Count
Right now I’m thinking it’s going to be +3 with pickups in Pennsylvania, Missouri and I’m going to go out on a limb with Tennessee. I really want to put Ohio in this column but Diebold prevents me

Chance for Democratic Majority:
At this time I think we’re going to need some help from the republicans. If Republicans manage to beat Chafee in the primaries Ithink they’re opening that race up wide for a democratic pickup. Chafee is very popular with both parties and there would be a backlash against the republicans.

We need to hope that the Abramhoff case affects Conrad Burns (and not Stabenow). Montana seems like a state we can’t win but then Brian Schwietzer did for governor in 2004 and he’s a very popular governor in that state.

I'm not sure where the 3rd seat is coming from and I'm worried that we migh lose one of three open democratic seats in Minnesota, Maryland or New Jersey.

[Zynx]

1. You mean Senate in your headline, right?

[LynneSin]

3. I was distracted - can I call it a blonde moment

:cry:

[AX10]

2. 6 for the Senate/15 for the House.

Rhode Island is not safe for Chafee. He's only polling at 40% against Sheldon Whitehouse, the Democratic challenger. I'm pissed as Hell that Langevin was forced out. He would have made this a done deal and Chaffee(Bush apologist) would find himself unemployed come next Fall.

There is a huge effort to unseat Jon Kyl (R, Facsist-Arizona).

Today, it's appears to be (at least to me) this:

Senate: 50D/50R (GOP holds control via tiebreaking vote of VP)
House: 222D/213R
Gov: 27D/23R

Hopefully, we get those numbers higher.

[LynneSin]

4. Those are races I don't know enough, especially Kyl

Who's running against him - Napoliteano? (sp). I'll take six seats anywhere let's just hope we don't give a free seat to the republicans (aka Lieberman)

[AX10]

6. A multi millionaire is running against Kyl. He can fund his own race.

That is good. Also, Kyl is not John McCain. Kyl is not safe.
Also, Jack Carter (son of Jimmy Carter) is running for Senator in Nevada against John Ensign.

[LynneSin]

8. That's why I didn't make Ensign safe R

First, I'll admit that I'm more knowledgeable about the races east of the Mississippi (well except Montana).

I'm thinking what also might help us get Nevada is one Harry Reid. The guy has been golden as senate minority leader (I hate to say it but thank you Jim Thune for ousting Dashcle for us) and his popularity might help win one for the democrats.

[AX10]

9. Harry Reid will make the GOP regret their ousting of Daschle.

[LynneSin]

11. As he should

but come on, secretly aren't you glad Daschle is gone. I mean he wasn't a very effective leader although in a million years I would have never wished for him to be ousted from his seat

[m_welby]

10. Chafee is a bush apologist?

How so?

He's the only republican Senator to Vote against the IWR. In my book that puts him at least 2 points above Hillary, Kerry, and the rest of the ass covering Dems.

Of course I say this and still will vote against him come election time even if there's only a slim chjance of taking back the saenate.

[Hippo_Tron]

23. Chafee used to have some balls

But once he voted for John Bolton I lost respect for him.

[win_in_06]

5. We thought Warner was going to run up until a few months ago.

I wish he had. He's young and it would have made him known nationally.

[LynneSin]

7. I know, you and be both. If Warner was running I'd make that seat Safe D

Just like Pennsylvania!

[snowbear]

16. Don't worry Win06....

He'll be known nationally soon enuf...

[hobbywizard]

12. Tide is turning.

Chafee is ripe for picking in RI. He'll get RNC backing but they probably feel about him like most DUers (myself included) feel about Joe Lieberman. As has been pointed out, he's not polling well against either prospective Demo candidate.

PA, RI and OH are our best opportunities for pick-ups, and MO, VA and TN offer some solid prospects as well.

MN is going to be the main problem among the 18 seats the Demos are defending. Dayton is a bit of a lamer as a senator, from most accounts.

Worse case scenario, as I see it: Demos net two seats, 53-46-1 (Repub majority). I can't envision doing better than 50-49-1 (Repubs) unless matters abroad degenerate even further, or the economy tanks again over the next year.

I use the following two sites a lot to keep tabs on the 2006 races:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/index.htm

[LynneSin]

15. Worst case scenario we pick up seats but not get the majority

I honestly think the House will get the majority. Fifteen seats seems doable especially if we can get the original redistricting back in Texas and not the one skewed by Tom Delay before 2004.

[AX10]

34. Democrats can gain as many as 40 seats if the GOP collapses...

entirely. Not likely, but I can hope for that. 20-25 Seats is very doable.

[LynneSin]

38. Don't tease a girl like that

<<<sigh>>>

[AX10]

35. Sabato seems to be a subtle shill for the GOP.

He has Minnesota leaning to the GOP. :wtf:

[melody]

13. Great post, except I think +6 is imminently do-able

Less Diebold influence, of course.

At which point, I'm afraid the result will be a lot of unrest, particularly in Ohio.

[LynneSin]

14. That's the problem we need states like Ohio to ensure +6

There are only 15 seats up for re-election and we need to not only find 6 that we can pick off but hold tight on some very close races. Adding in Diebold and some unforseen thing the Republicans will rally around at the last minute like 9/11, this is still a forminable task

1. Allen, George- (R - VA)
2. Burns, Conrad- (R - MT)
3. Chafee, Lincoln- (R - RI)
4. DeWine, Mike- (R - OH
5. Ensign, John- (R - NV)
6. Frist, Bill- (R - TN) (open)
7. Hatch, Orrin- (R - UT)
8. Hutchison, Kay- (R – TX)
9. Kyl, Jon- (R – AZ)
10. Lott, Trent- (R - MS)
11. Lugar, Richard- (R – IN)
12. Santorum, Rick- (R - PA)
13. Snowe, Olympia- (R - ME)
14. Talent, James- (R - MO)
15. Thomas, Craig- (R – WY)

I think we can win Missouri & Pennsylvania. We should win Ohio but Diebold will screw that over. That leaves 4 seats we need to pull out and again - not lose seats we have (Including 3 open seats that could be tight).

So you can see why I would prefer we just keep Joe Lieberman in our party. Why give away a safe seat when we know that Lieberman will still support Reid for Majority leader even if he votes republican for the war.

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[LynneSin]

26. Damnit, I hate when I miss what someone said to me

:eyes:

[Hippo_Tron]

18. If Lott retires, Mike Moore would make Mississippi safe D...

Gene Taylor would make it a tossup. Taylor unfortunately votes like a Republican on social issues but that's exactly the kind of record that he could win with in a state like Mississippi. If the social issues are off the table then economic issues are the only thing on the table and Taylor fights constantly against Bush administration economic policies. I would say that Taylor would enter the race with it leaning R, but with Bush's approval below 50% in Mississippi (much lower than with what he has had to get re-elected with in his hugely GOP leaning district) and the state being impacted by hurricane Katrina, I think that even Mississippi could be persueded by the voice of reason as opposed to the voice of "tax cuts are the will of god, it says so in the bible."

[HillDem]

21. I like Taylor ever since his speech

in the House about budget cuts. I think he has the kind of charisma to do it. Who is Mike Moore?

[Hippo_Tron]

22. Mike Moore is the former Attorney General of Mississippi

He is considered by many to be the most popular politician in the state. Since Lott probably won't retire, chances are that he will take on Haley "Babar" Barbour and toss his ass out of the Governor's mansion.

[HillDem]

24. Well good luck to him then

[Daylin Byak]

48. I think I may know who Mike Moore is

Isn't he the only who in the mid 90's try to go after big tobacco?

Is that the same one.

[Hippo_Tron]

54. I think he did go after big tobacco

Clinton did as well, but Moore did on the state level.

[LynneSin]

27. Sometimes we have to fit the candidate to match the state

PA-10 has a weakness because of Don Sherwood's Adulerious/Assultive affair being revealed. You have to realize that Sherwood won his last re-election with 92% of the votes AND he had a democratic candidate.

But PA-10 is extreme rural Pennsylvania where values run very conservative. I get the impression that Chris Carney, the democrat running against Sherwood also runs on the more conservative side with some social issues but that fits PA-10 to a T. Right now republicans, especially religious ones, are alienating Sherwood and would probably support a moderate democrat over a liberal one. I think that was one key to the success of Mark Pryor's win in Tennessee when he ran against incumbant Tim Hutchenson who had left his wife for a staffer. Fundies maybe be irritating but sometimes we can play those values in our favorite. Toss a moderate democrat family man into the race and suddenly we have a competitive race. BTW, one very important thing about Chris Carney which is why he's in my "More Cowbell" list: He supports a timeline for withdrawel from Iraq. That's what gets my support.

I hate to say it, social issues are important but right now this war and ending it is even more so.

[Hippo_Tron]

32. Problem is that people still believe Bush's "we can't cut and run" crap

Despite the fact that his approval ratings are 36%, apparently people are still believe the asshole on that issue.

[LynneSin]

37. Yeah, but oddly enough that's not the area where we're compromising

Take Chris Carney, that democrat I've mentioned many times who is running for the house seat in PA-10.

I can almost guarentee that guy is pro-life but in a district like PA-10 that can almost be a benefit. Remember, it's highly unlikely that pro-life democrats will get inportant positions in anything related to judiciary (course he's running for the house).

Carney has pretty much come out as a timeline/troop replacement guy. He's not a full Murtha but he's not a Lieberman either. I think for some candidates in more conservative regions - the "Timeline/Deadline" stance is a safe one and when you think about it pretty much what we want too (Of course our timeline has us out by next Tuesday).

But right now even if every democrat backed Pelosi & Reid with wanting to set a timeline for removing our soldiers we will still not end the war. And even if we get the majority it still might not happen but the difference is you can be assured that Majority Leader Reid and Speaker Pelosi WILL get the debate on the floor. Once that debate is on the floor we go full force with the press, tv, radio everywhere we can to say "SUPPORT REID/PELOSI AND BRING THEM HOME"

[quaoar]

45. What about Ronnie Musgrave?

[Hippo_Tron]

55. He lost the Governors' race to Babar in '03

He'd be an okay candidate but I'm not sure he'd be able to win.

[Mass]

19. Add RI for possible D pickup

Chafee is in a difficult primary against a conservative Republican. Currently, the polls show him losing the primary.

I dont believe that too much, but, if the primary is difficuly, whether he loses or wins, it makes a pick-up by Dems very probable.

[HillDem]

20. Here's a great site for the Senate

www.removerepublicans.com

[Neil Lisst]

25. Good assessment of the races, Lynne.

That's why I think we have the best shot at taking the House back.

The bribe scandal is going to be opening up a lot of seats for us.

We probably don't win a clear majority of the Senate in 06.

[LynneSin]

28. As long as we remember that every seat counts

even from moderate democrats - we need their seats too. Let's not make this any more difficult that what it is

[Neil Lisst]

29. I agree. I'm not sure I understand your point.

If you're saying let's not run people in the middle out of the party, count me in. I want to beat Pubs with seats now, not replace any Dems with seats.

[LynneSin]

30. that exactly it

I'm not saying skip primaries - everyone has the right to run. But when I hear things about Move-on and hordes of us from the oinline community wanting to put up a major fight against Lieberman then I'm worried. I'm worried that alot of money will be spent with little results. And I'm worried that if I'm wrong in that last statement then I'll worry that we open up a safe democratic seat to the possibilty of republican takeover especially since the republican governor is also just as popular as Lieberman.

[Neil Lisst]

40. yep, let Lieberman be Lieberman

Joe Lieberman is a hawk on Iraq, and always has been. He never needed a good reason for us to invade. But he's elected, and we don't have time and energy to worry about one guy. Our job is getting people elected.

[AX10]

33. I 50/50 Senate is most likely at this time.

That not too bad because all it would take is +1 in 2008 to take the chamber back. Also, a 50/50 senate weakens Bush and the GOP along with the loss of the House.

[leyton]

47. Besides, w/50-50 you can always hope for a switch.

Guys like Chafee won't switch parties now because they would just place themselves in the minority and that doesn't do Chafee or Rhode Island any good. But, if it becomes a tie, then people like Chafee have an incentive to throw control to the Democrats in exchange for a prestigious committee appointment or something like that.

[6th Borough]

31. :sigh:...Jesus couldn't have beaten Bob Graham either.

Damn shame he risked it all on a long-shot presidential bid; he would have had that Senate seat locked until he died...not to mention the "wonkish", apolitical, critical view he offered as Chairman/Ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Back on topic...BBV or not, Cruella barely re-won her house seat and would be lucky to win a seat in a South Florida Water Management district.

Those who would have posed a the greatest potential threat to Bill Nelson, such as Charlie Crist (Florida AG), are running for governor.

[LynneSin]

36. ****sigh**** yeah, I agree

:cry:

I miss the guy

Maybe he'll run again in 2010 after Mendenez is done fucking up crap for Florida!

[Daylin Byak]

63. It's not Menendez

It's Mel Martinez.

And do you know what's sad about him winning, he didn't even get a majority of the and 49% is not a majority. In my mind the Independent candidate Bradley who ran againist Martinez and Betty Castor stole votes from Castor.

And your Right about Graham, even Jesus couldn't beat him, he's the only Democrat from Florida that could get 60% of the votes in a statewide election(were lucky if we can get 53%)

[Awsi Dooger]

39. I'm hoping for a +1 or +2 net in the senate next year

That won't be a popular assessment but I always default to the beginning to gage truth. Everything tends to drift back to the initial assessment. A year ago the conventional wisdom was we were playing defense in the senate during this cycle. The transition from that point to hopes of picking up the 6 necessary seats is bizarre, IMO.

We already netted 5 seats from this block in 2000, picking up seats in Washington, Michigan and Florida among others. So anyone asking for another 6 would be projecting basically a 1/3 net transfer of the available seats in this block to our side over a 6 year period. Not going to happen.

Among the states we are pursuing at top tier hopes, 5 of the 7 have Republican tilt at the national level -- Ohio, Tennessee, Missouri, Arizona and Montana. Only Pennsylvania and Rhode Island lean our way. That's simply not an ideal playing field for a sweep or anything close to that. I'm hoping we can hold Minnesota and New Jersey, etc. then pick off Pennsylvania and maybe one other. Hackett in my estimation has a much better chance to oust an incumbent in Ohio. If we nominate Brown I'll lose attention span in a hurry. A +1 or especially a +2 would be a very successful cycle, IMO.

[neverforget]

41. Don't count Montana out! Burns is a dipshit who's in trouble now

because of Abramhoff. Republicans got beat up in 2004 losing the Governorship and the one house of the legislature.

[Neil Lisst]

42. I agree. Montana could be a surprise for us.

wouldn't that be sweet?

[LynneSin]

46. Who's running for senate in Montana?

We need some candidates on the table now if we want to go after Burns. Man I wish we could clone Schweitzer and have him run against Burns.

But if we're to win Montana even with Burns in deep with Abramoff, we need at least one candidate out there now starting the fight. Hell Bob Casey Jr. announced his ethics reform platform at a restaurant in DC once owned by Abramoff. It got great press in Pennsylvania and made Santorum look not only bad but that maybe he's involved with Abramoff too (probably is)

[greendog]

49. We have two good candidates

Jon Tester: President of the Montana Senate, organic farmer, charismatic populist, fairly progressive.
http://www.testerforsenate.com/


John Morrison: State Auditor, Trail Lawyer, solid moderate Democrat.
http://www.johnmorrison.us/

Don't forget that Schweitzer opposed Burns last time around and came close to unseating him. At the time, Schweitzer was a complete unknown in Montana politics. Now, he's Governor with a 68% approval rating and I'm sure we can count on him to do a bit of campaigning for our nominee.

With just a little bit of luck, Conrad Burns is going to have a lot more time to spend with his family in the not too distant future. :)

[LynneSin]

52. well hopefully we'll find out he's in deep with Abramoff

Nothing like having a little extra "oomph" to help your campaign. I'll keep my eye on Montana. I'd like to see the some of those so-called "Red States" show that they are really "Blue States"

[J-Hen]

62. I think we can win Montana

Tester seems like a good candidate, and Burns is not that popular.

[election_2004]

43. Keep your eyes on Claire McCaskill (Missouri)

Jim Talent is the Eddie Haskell of the U.S. Senate.

His popularity is down, and his time is up.

Go Claire!

http://www.claireonline.com

[LynneSin]

44. I think Missouri is second to Pennsylvania as a good chance for D pickup

I mean, Santorum is out the door. I'm thinking in 6 months if the guy can't get his approval rating and poll against the probably democrat candidate Bob Casey above 40% that he'll probably 'retire'. Santorum wants to run for president but won't be able to do it if he gets trounced by the state he represents (I'd say home state but I think Santorum might do a bit better in a red state like Virginia although they're looking might blue with the last governor race)

[Daylin Byak]

50. My take on 2006 mid-term elections

Seats we can pick up: 4

-Rick Santorum(R-PA)
-Conrad Burns(R-MT)
-John Ensign(R-NV)
-Mike Dewine(R-OH)

Toss-up seats: 3
-Jim Talent(R-MO)
-Jon Kyl(R-AZ)
-Bill Frist' open seat(TN)

Seats we could lose
-Maria Cantwell(D-WA)
-Mark Dayton's open seat(MN)

Thoughts.
I think we could have a chance of unseating Dewine, with Hackett and Brown running in the primaries it's a good chance cause there two good candidates like Sherrod Brown, who is a God in the house with his outspoken speeches on topics like CAFTA and he's has alot of charisma, like Paul Hackett. As for Maria Cantwell seat well I don't know. Alot of people in Washington do not like her for corperate stances on certain issues. look for the CEO of safeco to possibly give her a run for her money.

[LynneSin]

53. I think Maria Cantwell is safe and Maryland we might actually lose

I also have a difficult time with an Ohio pickup only because of Diebold. I think if we could manually count every vote then the democratic candidate (whether Brown or Hackett) would win. But Diebold does a bulk of that voting which means I'm not counting on an Ohio victory.

Maria Cantwell is still pretty popular in Washington State. In fact both her and Patty Murray have approval ratings above 50%. She should probably be a strong D but not safe.

Maryland and also New Jersey worry about about potential democratic losses. Maryland has an open seat from retiring Paul Sabanes (he would have been Safe D) and Lt. Gov Michael Steele is running on the republican ticket. Steele is probalby the reason why a republican won as governor in Maryland for the first time in 3 decades. 2002 Democratic candidate Katherine Kennedy Townsand figured she could win on her Kennedy name (yes she's part of that clan) and picked an old white moderate man as her running mate. Erlrich, the republican nominee and winner, found the one African American republican in the state of Maryland and picked him. It's a sad statement but there are some people who vote strictly based on their heritage (which explains Bush's popularity :eyes: ). Michael Steele is a pompous asshole that would sell out his heritage in order to turn a profit. So yes, I'm worried about that race.

New Jersey is a nail biter too because it all depends on who Gov-elect Jon Corzine picks to replace him in the senate. The republicans have Tom Kean Jr, son of former popular republican governor Tom Kean Sr. I guess the republican party realizes that running Bret Schundler or Doug Forrester in every race isn't going to get them any victories. New Jersey usually comes through as solid blue, but whoever Corzine picks as his replacement in the senate will be the frontrunner for the 2006 election and has to be able to go up strong against Kean.

[Hippo_Tron]

56. Nevada isn't even in play

The DSCC won't fund Ensign's challenger, who I think is Jimmy Carter's son.

Arizona depends on whether Pederson is really willing to spend the money to beat Kyl. And I don't see why you don't think Chafee isn't vulnerable.

[Daylin Byak]

57. Cause I think people of Rhode Island

Will see Chafee as a moderate Republican and vote for him espically because of all the times he has voted for numerous Democraic backed bills.

And him the polls between and his Democratic opponent Sheldon Whitehouse, isn't Chafee winning?

[MrBenchley]

69. Who says the DSCC won't fund him?

They certainly seem supportive here...

http://www.dscc.org/2006races/nv/

http://www.dscc.org/news/nv/20051130_jack/

[Clark2008]

51. Tennessee:

Frist, Bill- (R - TN) (open) Leaning R – Frist is retiring because he wants to run for president and he can’t risk a lost in 2006 either with his election or as majority leader. He’s playing it safe and ‘retiring’ in order to leave on top. Democrats have a strong candidate with Harold Ford but this southern state has been a republican stronghold for awhile.

Not that long - we do have a Dem governor and voted for Clinton twice.

In any case, an MTSU poll says this about the state:

A solid majority (61%) of Tennesseans say they would like the next president to offer policies and programs different from those offered by Bush. Only about a third (32%) want someone with policies similar to Bush’s. Six percent don’t know, and the rest refuse to answer. A notable 33% of Republicans say they want someone with policies and programs different from Bush’s. The figure is 68% among independents, and 86% among Democrats. Nationwide, an Oct. 6-10, 2005 poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that 69% want a change from Bush’s policies and programs, while 25% do not, and 6% don’t know.

SNIP
In a similar vein, Tennesseans register ambivalence about which party they would like to see control Congress after the midterm elections in 2006. Thirty-six percent would like to see Republicans in control of Congress, 40% would prefer control by Democrats, and 21% don’t know. The rest decline to answer. Nationally, 37% of Americans would prefer Republican control of Congress, 48% would prefer Republican control, and 15% are unsure, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll conducted Nov. 4-7. Democrats and Republicans alike solidly prefer a Congress controlled by their respective parties, but independents prefer Democratic control (39%) over Republican control (26%). A notable 31% of independents are undecided on the question, and the rest decline to answer.

http://www.mtsusurveygroup.org/mtpoll/F2005/MTSUPoll_Report_national_f05_0911_111305.htm

I'd say that's good news for Democrats in Tennessee. :)

[napi21]

58. I think the next 6 months should answer your question.

None of us know for sure how many Pubs will be touched (or smacked down hard) by the Abramoff mess. Frist has his own problems with that SEC investigation, and Tennesseeans really don't like deceipt and corruption.

Seems like, every day there's another new accusation, investigation, or someone NEW found to be linked to corruption!

A lot depends on who our candidates are, but I think we're going to get a lot of help from Pub corruption too!!!!

[Zynx]

59. I would say that we have good shots in the following order:

1. PA, I think Santorum is nearly done for before the campaign begins.
2. MO, Talent is in a ton of trouble for re-election and may have ties to Abramoff.
3. OH, Dewine is a very weak incumbent and I think the Dems will win the governor's race too to provide some extra lift.
4. MT, Burns has a decent lead of about 10% at this point, but he is potentially very scandalous and also is running against relative unknowns at this point and thus should be doing better than he is.
5. TN, open seat and I think Harold Ford Jr. has a decent shot. We need a solid Democratic tide nationwide to tip this one over.
6. RI, haven't seen much polling here recently, but I think the Democrats are running better candidates than they have in some time and we can still make Chaffee's Republicanism an issue as he does give the majority to right-wingers like Allen and Coburn.

VA may also be a decent shot as Allen's approval rating has declined and the Democrats could run James Webb(former Navy Sec) or former lieutenant governor Breyer(I think that's his name).

[Tiggeroshii]

60. Was Breyer as popular as Warner?

Do you think either of those guys can beat out Allen by a a landslide(>10%)? or do you think it will be a very close race the entire campaign?

[Daylin Byak]

61. I don't think

In my mind Warner was our only shot of beating Allen cause he's the only notable Dem in Virginia.

Maybe we have a chance, What's Allen's approval rating?

[Tiggeroshii]

64. lt govs are generally pretty notable. Here in CA, Bustamante was known to

have a good shot at the governorship(he got the best amount of votes under Arnold), until the movie star decided to run...

on edit, of course this is a very dem state and arnold had to run on a very moderate if not democratic platform to win and may need to do the same if not completely change himself if he's going to again...

[Zynx]

66. I'm not entirely familiar with Breyer's popularity.

I'm sure it would probably be a close race and not a blow out, but it would make it a possibility as I understand it from some posts by Virginians.

[MrBenchley]

65. Good analysis

I'd like to think Virginia and Nevada are in play but that will take a lot of hard work.

Keane will have a lot of name recognition, but both Forrester and Schundler (the last two prominent Republican candidates) left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths. As you say, the Garden state depends on whom Corzine names as replacement.

[LynneSin]

67. Who do you think Corzine is going to pick?

I wish Codey would consider it. He's the most popular politician in NJ and it seems all he wants is State Senate President.

[MrBenchley]

68. I really have no idea....

Codey is an excellent public servant...but after the slimy attacks the right wing made here about his wife, I can see why he doesn't want to climb any higher and catch the same crap from the Limbaughs and Hannitys..