CBS News Poll, Dec. 21-22: Dean, Clark, Gephardt

[Jerseycoa]

Howard Dean 16%
Wesley Clark 10%
Richard Gephardt 9%

In polling conducted in the four days leading up to Hussein's capture, when asked who they would vote for “if Bush runs for re-election in 2004,” by 42% to 41%, voters said they would vote to re-elect Bush...If the election were held today and the candidates were Bush, the Republican and Dean, the Democrat, 55% of voters say they would vote for Bush, while 35% say they would cast their vote for Dean.

<snip>

The margin of error {6%} in this poll for Democratic primary voters is larger than the overall margin of error {4%} for the total sample {799}: there were 244 registered voters who said they would vote in the Democratic primary in this survey. And uncertainty among those Democratic primary voters remains. Just 27% who currently back a candidate for the Democratic nomination say their mind is made up; 71% say it too early to say whether their choice is definite.

<snip>

To a greater extent than has been done before, Howard Dean’s campaign has utilized the Internet to raise campaign contributions, communicate information and generate enthusiasm among supporters. Among those likely Democratic primary voters who access the Internet, Howard Dean is the top candidate. 18% of this group would like to see him as the nominee, followed by Wesley Clark with 13% and Gephardt with 11%.

Source: CBS News

CBS News Poll. Dec. 21-22, 2003. N=244 likely Democratic primary voters nationwide. MoE ± 6.

"Who would you like to see the Democratic Party nominate as its presidential candidate in 2004: ,  or someone else?" Names rotated.

 
Howard Dean
16 (12/21-22)
23 (12/14-16)
14 (11/10-13)
 
Wesley Clark
10 (12/21-22)
10 (12/14-16)
9 (11/10-13)
 
Richard Gephardt
9 (12/21-22)
6 (12/14-16)
12 (11/10-13)
 
Joe Lieberman
6 (12/21-22)
10 (12/14-16)
9 (11/10-13)
 
Carol Moseley Braun
6 (12/21-22)
1 (12/14-16)
4 (11/10-13)
 
John Edwards
5 (12/21-22)
2 (12/14-16)
2 (11/10-13)
 
John Kerry
4 (12/21-22)
4 (12/14-16)
7 (11/10-13)
 
Al Sharpton
2 (12/21-22)
5 (12/14-16)
3 (11/10-13)
 
Dennis Kucinich
2 (12/21-22)
1 (12/14-16)
2 (11/10-13)
 
Other (vol.)
16 (12/21-22)
10 (12/14-16)
15 (11/10-13)
 
Don't know
24 (12/21-22)
28 (12/14-16)
23 (11/10-13)

Source: Polling Place


On edit: Added CBS News article

[citizen snips]

1. Dean is still on top.

[AP]

4. ...but is down over 1/3rd.

And he's not much higher than he was in November.

[Name removed]

6. Deleted message

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[Jerseycoa]

30. 20% behind Bush

Too bad they didn't match the other candidates to Bush. I'm getting to hate the media more and more every day.

x(

[AP]

2. I know the number is low in absolute sense, but, nice jump for Edwards.

(yeah, yeah...I know about margins of error).

[dobak]

3. That is interesting.....

Dean, Lieberman, and Sharpton drop

Gephardt, Edwards, Mosely-Braun, and Other rise

Clark and Kerry stay put

[arcos]

5. CMB up 4 points!

and moves ahead of Kerry...

[Jerseycoa]

7. She's up five nt

[AP]

12. If DK changed his name to Denise he'd jump up to 6 points.

Discuss.

[JohnKleeb]

22. Denise Kucinich lol

I've been told by some people :eyes: that his problem is his last name.

[spooky3]

33. I don't see much empirical support for this notion.

If anything, the evidence suggests he'd lose support.

[TexasPatriot]

8. wow

i'm going to guess this is an outlier of sorts... but it does fit with Dean's trend since Saddam's capture - and with a small sample.

But one thing probably is worth noting - the support was shallow, with 71% saying they're still thinking about it.

This thing is far from over. I think a lot of campaigns will be encouraged by numbers like these.

[Jerseycoa]

19. Very small sample

I think it may indicate how fluid everything is right now, though. For the past couple of weeks, I've been feeling anything might happen.

Yeah, I posted it for morale boosting. :)

[xray s]

9. N=244?

That's an awfully small sample size. I wouldn't put too much credence into this poll.

[SahaleArm]

25. 244 out of 1000 will give an MOE of +/- 6

Maybe they had a bad hit rate on Democrats or self-identified Democratic primary voters. Less than 20% of Democrats will be involved in the primary process.

[Democrats unite]

10. I still say Kudos to all of candidates!

Great going guys.

[YNGW]

11. Other??

What is "Other"?? All 9 candidates are mentioned, along with "Don't know". But "Other"???

And how did Carol Moseley Braun go from 1% to 6%??

Something's goofy!

[AP]

13. I think women who are sold on the fear are more inclined to vote

for a man.

Women who start thinking other things are more important will vote for the woman because she's a woman.

There might have been a breakthrough in the last month which makes people less afraid and less influenced by fascist fear mongering.

Or maybe Dean did something to lose a lot of women in the last couple days.

[wyldwolf]

14. Lyndon LaRouche

?

[YNGW]

17. Nada

Lyndon LaRouche (other) polling at 16%? Not in this lifetime.

"Other" is like a non-sequior.

[AP]

18. Hillary and Gore, most likely.

[YNGW]

21. Could be.

nc

[Jerseycoa]

23. Could be

But she was at 4% in November, so it's not that outlandish.

[revcarol]

15. And in this horse race, "don't know" WINS.

i'M SO SICK OF EVERYTHING BEING A HORSE RACE.How about tracking how the candidates are doing, according to the issues?:argh:

How about even mentioning the issues? DK was right to take after KOPPEL> damn sticky key.

[Deesh]

16. Deadlocked Convention?

Does anyone feel that there will be no first-ballot winner at the convention in Boston? Is there any sense that this is becoming a battle between Dean and Clark, but with neither getting the first-ballot numbers before Boston, and the convention turning to a compromise candidate?

And would that candidate necessarily be chosen among the announced nine? It could be someone unaligned with either Dean or Clark.

What rough beast, its hour come 'round at last, slouches toward Boston to be born?

[newyawker99]

31. Hi Deesh!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[zulchzulu]

20. MOE + or - 6 with 244 sample and 24% Don't Know = POS

[SahaleArm]

26. The problem with national primary polls...

Typically +/- 3 means the sample size is double or 500 out of a total of 1000. The problem with national polls is that they assume every Democrat or leaner will vote in the primary. The truth is less than 20% of Democrats will involved in the primaries.

Great Tool: http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

[zulchzulu]

28. Agreed and thanks for the link

I think a lot of people who believe these national polls are valid think MOE is referring to the Three Stooges.

[SahaleArm]

29. LOL n/t

[in_cog_ni_to]

24. Wow,

that is quite a drop for Dean. In just one week?

Clark stayed the same....excellent! Now, we just need to give that a nudge UP!

Gep is on his heels. That's very interesting. How the hell did that happen?

CMB is quite intriguing also! She polled better than Kerry, Edwards and Kucinich. Holy Moly! You Go Girl!

Great Poll! Thanks!

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, GENERAL CLARK! :party: :toast:

[cryofan]

27. Hey, Koppel, Carole beats Edwards & Kerry...take that, you ....

...SOB!

LOL! We oughta demand Koppel apologize to Carole Moseley Braun for telling her, Sharpton and Kucinich they oughta get out of the race. But he did not say a word to party insiders Kerry and Edwards. And now look.....

[BootinUp]

32. Thanks for posting this

I wish the media and pundits would stop saying this race is over! Far from it.

[cryofan]

34. And where is the media talk about how Dean dropped so much in this poll?

This is a huge drop for Dean, yet I can find nothing about it in the media. But they sure tout every single lead increase he has had....