I really feel Edwards can make a comback and win the nomination!

[uconnyc]

Here is my scenario:

1) Edwards beats Kerry by at least 10% in SC. The headlines on the 4th will be "Kerry wins 5 out of 7," "Edwards wins SC, becomes Kerry's biggest challenger"

2) Clark gets little coverage for his OK victory and his campaign is on life support.

3) Kerry keeps getting "annoying" questions from the media about his viability in the South.

4) Kerry and Dean involved in an arms race in MI, Kerry wins, Dean's campaign finished.

5) Edwards skips MI and campaigns in VA and TN. Wins both states as Kerry was preoccupied with MI until the 7th and because the media makes out Kerry to be dismissive of the South.

6) Edwards grabs all the heandlines after VA and TN. Becomes a two horse race until Super Tuesday with "Electability in the South" being the key issue constantly brought-up by the media.

[ACPS65]

1. Edwards

does not have enough money to campaign for Super Tuesday.

[uconnyc]

3. The money will come...

after the media pub he gets after SC and VA, TN

[jenk]

4. yes he does

he has more than Clark and Dean.

and I don't think Edwards should skip Mississippi either, he can beat Kerry in the deep south

[uconnyc]

6. MI = Michigan, not Miss.

or am I wrong? Thought MS is Miss.

[arewethereyet]

7. I believe you are correct there

and I'd not concede Michigan though if the unions can make a difference anywhere , its there. Big 'if' given whats been going down lately.

[arewethereyet]

2. been reading my mind again ? you scamp !

the only thing that can stop this train is if the media really IS controlled by the RNC and the "Southern Question" fails to materialize because Rove would prefer to run against Kerry.

This will be the proof of the pudding as it regards media control.

[uconnyc]

5. I just saw the primary Calendar

add to that Dean's Feb. 7th strategy and it seems like everything breaks JRE's way after the 3rd.

I just hope JRE's people do not waste their resources in MI, it will hurt his chances in VA and TN

[mlawson]

8. Of course, Rove would rather run

against Kerry. But just wait until he is offically nominated; then they will turn on him with hammer and tongs. I would be surprised if Kerry even does as well as Dukakis did. I think we are looking down the abyss of a 1984 rerun.

[La_Serpiente]

9. Any candidate willing to underestimate Edwards is foolish

[PurityOfEssence]

10. Arizona and Oklahoma are still possible wins

for Edwards, and we mustn't rule out the impact of coming in second in various races. The Delaware numbers are still inconclusive, and there's also the reverse-herd mentality if the front-runner doesn't have the acceleration many predict.

Michigan is an interesting one, since he's got a major union endorsement and is very popular to union folk. Even if it's not a win, to show well there could be a big boost too.

If Clark can be shut out of a win and kept from any seconds, he might wither on the vine, and other support may shift to Edwards. Clark and Edwards are inherent rivals, since they're sons of the south and somewhat "outsiders", although that's a pretty odd tag for either, when you really start to look at it. Those who sincerely question the charisma/dynamism issue with Kerry may begin to see Edwards as their only alternative, and that could be decisive.

Some version of these scenarios would also put him as the only candidate on an upswing, and it'd be an unbroken one at that. Clark took a serious hit after Iowa, and even though he eked out a less than half of a percent margin in New Hampshire, he was WAY ahead of that. Dean has been buffetted from all directions and will not fare well for the next week, and if Kerry stumbles or fails to accelerate, he's also taking a hit in the momentum column. Exciting, non?

I think you know how I feel...