MSNBC: Electoral earthquake could begin in California Tonight

[Rose Siding]

WASHINGTON - If you live in Atlanta or Denver, why should you care about a special election Tuesday in a congressional district in southern California?

Answer: because the outcome tonight in California’s 50th congressional district will be the most significant indicator we’ve yet had as to whether Republicans can keep control of the House of Representatives this November.
...
“One of the most unexpectedly competitive races in congressional history,” Bill Burton, spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, called the Busby-Bilbray race....Referring to reports that more than 150 House Republican staffers had been dispatched to the district to help turn out the vote for Bilbray, Burton said, “They won’t be able to do that in 40 or 50 races this fall.”
...
“You’ve got Busby attacking ‘the culture of corruption’ and attacking Bilbray as a lobbyist; Bilbray has tried to make illegal immigration the pivotal issue,” said veteran California Republican political consultant Allan Hoffenblum, who is not working for either candidate.

But Bilbray may not be tough enough on illegal immigration for some voters.

An independent candidate, William Griffith, is also on the ballot and has won the support of the Minutemen, a citizen-run, anti-illegal immigration group that patrols the Mexican border.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/13165121/

[Pithy Cherub]

1. If Winograd beats Ms. Keep Your Powder Dry

then it will be a seismic event of at least a 6.0. When Lamont beats Joementum then that would be a spinal tap 11! Hopefully there will be a significant number of ballots cast for Fernald that will blow DiFi's hair helmet into disarray too.
:P

[wryter2000]

2. Okay, now I'm officially sick of this

Yes, if Busby wins, it'll be enormous. But these guys are setting it up that if she doesn't win, it'll mean the Dems are really hopeless, after all. Wait and see if I'm wrong.

The fact is that's a very Republican district. Her success so far already is the earthquake. But I'll bet you if she loses, tomorrow they'll all be trumpeting, "The Republican party got a big boost yesterday with the election of Bilbray to fill Cunningham's seat."

[OhioBlue]

5. those were my thoughts too. n/t

[Rose Siding]

7. The goper is spinning it even harder than that-

Now she has to beat 50% :eyes:

“If Busby today actually gets a majority of the votes cast, over 50 percent, then I think it is going to be a solid message, a precursor for November, that we have a sizable group of voters who almost always in the past voted Republican and are now looking to ‘throw the bums out,’” said Hoffenblum.

Splitting the vote?
But he added, “If Busby wins with 45 percent plurality and Griffith ends up with eight or nine percent of the vote, that mutes that message. It will mean that the right wing just split the vote.”

[wryter2000]

11. Ye gods

I hope I don't hear that from a supposedly neutral pundit/broadcaster. I'll hurl if I do.

[demdiva]

3. Gooooooooooo......team!

I can't wait for the fall!!!!

[Mz Pip]

4. Setting it up

so if Busby loses, even by a little, it will be considered a huge victory for the Repugs. Subtext: Even in a district that has the Repug serving prison time, the Repugs can still win.

Mz Pip
:dem:

[snowbear]

6. Yup.. We should be braced for anything...

If only she wouldn't have had the slip-of-the-tounge at that event recently that seemed to really piss off a lot of voters..

Bill Schneider (CNN) said that the Independent (I'm not familiar with who the 3rd person is) could possibly pull in votes from Bilbray.

But who knows? It's the reddest of the red part of a blue state and Busby's unfortunate comment seems to have rallied the "lobbyist Rethug's" base.

We need results like we had the night that NO ONE thought we'd win Virginia. ....We need a miracle!

[Jackpine Radical]

8. How cool. A third-party split going our way for once. (nt)

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

9. We Desperately Need To Win Something

Honestly, with their control of the machines and vote counting, plus the fact this district is heavily repub, I see little hope that we'll eke out a victory. It's going to be close.

I understand what everyone is saying, but I still get depressed every time there is a significant race, and the dems end up losing. Hackett against schmidt in OH, should have been a no brainer. Result, he lost. Sure, it was a tough district, but he lost.

Here, a congressman gets disgraced, sentenced to jail time, yet his party may actually retain the seat. It's disgusting that these evil criminals continue to get rewarded, without penalty. It's almost like nothing ever happened, and they're still maintaining their status quo.

I want hope. Hope is a good thing. I just continue to see a mighty uphill struggle, and think that the repubs will do EVERYTHING possible to make sure they maintain control of both houses in '06. That fight starts today, and it would be nice to have at least one victory under our belts. Losing close is still losing. Don't think that losing by close margin makes a difference in this country, ask Al Gore or John Kerry.

[gasperc]

10. if Blibray loses or wins by less than 4pts, big defeat

it'll be a big defeat for the GOP, Busby only got 38% two years ago, meaning Duke beat her by 24 pt margin, that's a huge shift of votes. to send in 150 staffers and $10million spells doom. how can they do this in say 20 districts that they won by less than 5pts or 50-60 that they won by much more???